Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s flat open barely firmed through the session to range narrowly around Monday’s high. Any initial weakness remains likely to extend down to 1.0750-1.0785.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday finally produced the long-required third higher close by gapping up and extending higher intraday to test 1122.00. A pullback has room down to 1114.00 to maintain the rally’s momentum targeting 1131.50. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would create a new requirement for an additional higher close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday and extending higher intraday confirmed that 14.10 is now support and the base that formed around it up to 14.35 is breaking higher.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying to the 160-26 corrective bounce limit Monday night was retraced to test unchanged Tuesday. It was still premature for launching a new downleg, which was avoided by ranging choppily sideways despite a broad stock market recovery.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh reaction lows overnight to 29.25 were recovered to greet Tuesday’s open back at 30.45-30.95 resistance. Its recovery again triggered a rally up to 32.00, but this time with greater potential for extending higher to the 34.80 objective. The reaction to Tuesday’s API report should be duplicated Wednesday morning at the EIA report.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing 2 cents above the minimum 2.20 buy signal was retraced before Tuesday’s open, and not repeated intraday. But neither was it rejected, which still suggests post-open strength can extend higher intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly Monday without yet probing back into the 1.0750-1.0785 range suggests that buyers are impatient. The “ineffectual optimism” is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, but should attract new sponsorship Tuesday to extend the bounce any higher if the decline remains intact.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up above 1100.00 did what Friday’s session could have, which suggests that buyers are patient. That’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but it doesn’t allow any further hesitation beyond Tuesday’s open to extend higher and to produce the outstanding minimum required third higher close — probably more than a third higher close, considering the extended interim pullback.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up from Friday’s recovery to 14.10 now makes 14.10 support. It also allows no hesitation or at least only brief pullback before extending higher Tuesday to confirm Monday’s breakout. Otherwise, the next dip would be unusually likely to trend down below the current basing range.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday only ranged around 159-26 without either extending higher or reacting down. The pattern’s “ineffectual optimism” suggests that Friday’s pullback low will be retested before a more substantial rally would become likely.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending back down Sunday night prevented confirming Friday’s surge as a breakout, while failing to recover back above the 30.95 resistance that had triggered Friday’s surge.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially gapping down Monday attacked last week’s lows down to 2.08 before recovering up to 2.17. But 2.21 must be recovered to launch a rally leg.