Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing above the 1.0900 bounce limit must be rejected without further delay to maintain near-term potential down to 1.0750.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s probe back above Tuesday’s high was rejected by Thursday’s reversal back under Wednesday’s low. Back above 1089.00 would still reinstate the rally, but a deeper pullback is otherwise in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s surge above 14.10 was rejected by Thursday’s gap down. Trending down through the morning did fill the gap back to Tuesday’s low, which is still constructive to forming a bottom, but doesn’t qualify as a buy signal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not-necessarily-stable but not-plunging stocks removed the near-term catalyst for extending the bond rally, which remains intact so long as 157-04 holds as support..

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
After Wednesday’s inside day ignored stocks plunging, Thursday’s inside day ignored stocks volatility. The decoupling seems glaring.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength made the pullback likely to exploit all of its room for a pullback to 2.14, which was tested after the news.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday was retraced back up toward 1.090 like Tuesday’s gap down. That’s not the bounce limit, but chipping away at its resistance may begin undermining the downside attraction to 1.0750.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap down under Tuesday’s test of 1084.00 support did not extend down before bouncing back above Tuesday’s 1089.00 high. Closing above it would have signaled momentum reversing up, but the high was still being tested. Extending higher Thursday without delay overnight and/or post-open would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down had not trended down intraday, keeping alive the potential for rejecting the gap by reversing up immediately, which Wednesday did on the way up to 14.10. A second consecutive higher close above 14-10. Thursday would signal the trend is reversing up.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday still recovered in another flight-to-safety. Potential up to 158-10 and higher was exceeded significantly to 159-04 while producing a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout. Upside momentum remains intact and next targeting 160-08 so long as 158-06 now holds as support.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up again was reversed back down post-open Wednesday. Interestingly, stocks continued falling — in fact, plunging — while Crude Oil ranged narrowly sideways at or above Tuesday’s close. Are they decoupling? Must a Crude Oil bounce trigger more than a blip-up in stocks? Could the next Crude Oil upleg be from saber rattling, and could that overcome the supply issues — which have been substantially discounted?

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Wednesday did not recover through 2.32 resistance ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. Holding any gains after the report would be likely anyway to extend higher intraday.