Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having filled two gaps above, the corrective bounce was likely to fail. But gapping down Friday was too abrupt to be credible for being able to extend intraday. The consolidation is now free to resume the decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Friday filled the gap back to Wednesday’s close and its tested 1092.00 “lower prior highs”, which could be probed more deeply while “unfinished business above” remains outstanding.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s bounce back up to 14.35 resistance was late to begin and not a breakout, making it easier for gapping down Friday back under 14.10. There is no requirement to probe any lower while bottoming.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overnight high that was the flight-to-safety’s peak can  still be retested up to 156-30 and form a durable top to the recent bounce. All the more so, since Friday’s knee-jerk reaction down to 154-14 after Payrolls was recovered up to 156-16.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another test of 33.55 resistance Friday was retraced back down toward Wednesday’s lows, still likely to probe under 32.00 before a recovery would be credible.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having probed recent highs intraday Thursday without closing higher, a close above recent highs Friday was required to avoid at least a corrective dip down to 2.14. Friday’s fresh highs up to 2.45 qualified as a breakout.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The gap back to 1.0855 was filled before Thursday’s open. Retracing it through 1.0905 suggests an earlier gap up to 1.1000 will be filled also before likely resuming the decline.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up trended higher intraday for a second consecutive higher close confirming Wednesday’s breakout. At least a third higher close or more is required before a reversal down would be credible for extending. Meanwhile, upside potential on this leg is to the 1137.00 area.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Recovering back to prior highs is being suggested by Thursday’s test of 14.10, whose recovery nearly filled the gap back up to 14.40.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another overnight drop encouraged another flight-t0-safety Thursday that pushed price well above its last relative highs  of 155-14 and 155-29 to 156-25. Most of which had been retraced into the open. But closing back above 156-14 would likely retest 156-25, before reversing down to fulfill “unfinished business below” that is left outstanding.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking sharply Wednesday under 36.00 extended down further Thursday morning to test support around 32.00. Resistance is at 33.55 was tested, but ultimately held, keeping alive the likelihood for at least one more lower close.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t down, although that likely would have been absorbed, if not also reversed up. Returning back to recent highs above 2.38 does posture the pattern to break higher without further delay, to avoid a deeper correction.