Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s bounce was duplicated Wednesday by gapping up through 1.0900 and probing a fresh high above 1.1040. The shallow interim pullback and consecutive gaps up suggest the retest of last week’s high will hold and reverse back down more substantially, instead of trending up.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday above 1077.70 to test 1085.00 was reversed back down to Tuesday’s 1070.00 opening gap down. The close was trying to recover 1074.00, keeping alive the upward momentum.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting up Wednesday from Tuesday’s dip back down to the original 14.10 buy signal was itself retraced, after attacking 14.35 resistance. Back above 14.35 would be bullish.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing Wednesday well under the 154-12 pullback limit down to 153-24 was nonetheless recovered intraday back into positive territory up to 155-25, still targeting a fresh high at 156-12.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting favorably to Wednesday’s EIA report up to 39.00 was only temporary, as unfinished business remained outstanding below at Tuesday’s 36.71 gap down. Already attacking it Wednesday to within 20 cents instead of extending higher reflects a lot of pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pattern isn’t greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, still hovering off of the lows. But no “unfinished business below” remains outstanding.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday tested 1.090 resistance, but didn’t signal the trend reversing up. Initial strength Wednesday would be credible for resuming the rally, but the pullback targeting 1.0750-1.0785 otherwise remains in-play.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Tuesday followed Monday’s close at or above 1074.00, which was the least reliable confirmation of Friday’s recovery being durable. Closing above 1077.70 would have been optimal, so recovering to close above it Tuesday, or extending immediately above it Wednesday, would be likely to extend sharply higher intraday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday to test 14.10 support left outstanding a gap above back up to Monday’s close. Filling it and extending above 14.35 would be likely to trend in that direction intraday.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Early strength Tuesday barely filled the gap back to Thursday’s 155-30 close before reacting down sharply intraday to 154-22. But the bounce remains likely to test 156-12 so long as 154-14 holds as support.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Tuesday was reversed back into positive territory, trying to avoid a second consecutive lower close that would have confirmed Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range. The session struggled at unchanged, not quite confirming the breakout, but not a reliable rejection either.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight at 2.01 weren’t retested post-open Tuesday, but the session struggled in negative territory to essentially confirm Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range, and to require at least a third eventual lower close before a recovery would be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The correction of Thursday’s surge extended a little deeper Monday to attack 1.080, still having room down to 1.0750-1.0785 before resuming the rally.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s pullback did not invalidate Friday’s rally, holding 1074.00 as support. Rallying early Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s rally wasn’t extended Monday, but neither was it rejected, confirming that a bottom has formed. Rallying early Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s overly-aggressive bounce was duplicated Monday, already retesting last Wednesday’s range. Potential to probe fresh highs up to 156-12 remains intact, and no less likely, but not required if pullbacks can’t hold 154-14 as support.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Last week’s retest of the $41 base down to $40 had yet to reverse up. Monday’s gap down exploited that delay, and extended down sharply to fresh lows at 37.50. A buy signal cannot be generated for Tuesday, but a second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s open gapped down to and through last week’s 2.13 low, and later extended down to fresh lows at 2.06.