Bigger Picture
Livestox Recording Nov 24, 2015
Thanksgiving is fast-approaching, which creates seasonal influences on price action. Meanwhile, incidents in Paris and Syria have triggered market sell-offs, which also have predictable resolutions. I discuss those in this Livestox recording, which is linked below. Also listed are the stocks we discussed, including requests — they’re listed in order, so my most timely picks aren’t listed first (they’re INSY and XXII). Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
SPX
USO
GLD
GPRO
FOLD
FEYE
IMGN
AMZN
INSY
AAPL
TWTR
GWPH
CARA
CBIS
SRNA
MSRT
ECIG
MCIG
XXII
CANV
LXRP
AMMJ
Livestox login instructions
Several requests have been posted to the blog. Be sure to add yours if you won’t be attending the session live… Small change in plans, we’re testing a different software from MegaMeeting — still accessible across platforms.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday left no unfinished business below since Monday’s close was within the prior range. Extending higher Wednesday would help to confirm a bottom is still forming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap up isn’t enough to undermine the downward momentum, which requires closing above 1082.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down under all prior lows to 13.97 requires being retested as support before a rally would be credible. So, Tuesday’s gap up allows filling Monday’s gap to be recovered into a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially extending Monday’s recovery made the rally doubly dependent on closing higher Tuesday to confirm the breakout is valid. Reacting back down into negative territory undermines the recovery.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting up Tuesday on the Russian fighter jet downing is as valid as any other surge for forming a bottom, so long as it is confirmed by a second consecutive gain — if not also a surge — Wednesday.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Tuesday to retest Friday’s low and recovering back to unchanged can now begin to form a bottom, but only so long as any probe of fresh lows intraday is recovered to close positive. Any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for DayMonNo, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week sees Wednesday doubling-up on many reports. Several are high-profile, but only two have a reliable track record of influencing price action. The first is pre-open Durable Goods. Second is the post-open Consumer Sentiment, which comes on the heels of Thursday’s big miss in Consumer Confidence. As an aside, keep in mind that trending in reaction to an early report is often duplicated in reaction to later reports. Also note that volume will start to evaporate after the noon hour, if not before, with holiday travel taking precedence for many participants.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Livestox this afternoon
Livestox is this afternoon. We’ll be using a new host (OmniJoin, by Brother) that we’ve been testing. I’ll send out its log-in instructions later this morning. We still have Mitel as a back-up in case of difficulty, but it’s very intuitive.
Anyway, there’s not much happening in the Cannabis sector to update. But there’s plenty to discuss otherwise. The broader market is taking a hit overnight, but probably still has a higher high coming. Crude Oil is trying to bottom but finding it difficult, while Gold isn’t having much greater success.
I’ll review high-profile stocks for any relevant parameters, and also any chart requests from you. Just post them here in the blog, or join us for Livestox and ask there.