Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s rally was denied a second consecutive higher confirming close. But Friday was still constructive to forming a bottom. Its gap down created an attraction back up to Thursday’s close, and its low filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1.0665 close. Closing back above the 1.0680 prior low would have been optimal, but almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength settled back intraday to range between the decline’s 1074.50-1082.00 target range, closing lower on the day but still potentially basing.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday night’s surge was retraced Friday back down to the range’s lower-end at 14.00.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Intraday weakness touched what had been support at 154-10 and held, but didn’t close positive, which left Thursday’s breakout unconfirmed.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initial weakness reacted up sharply intraday. Perhaps it helps to confirm that sellers aren’t being attracted to current levels. But it is also reminiscent of a last-minute risk premium for weekend geopolitical uncertainties. At least an obligatory probe of fresh lows is likely if Monday doesn’t immediately extend Friday’s bounce, for whatever reason.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Frideay fell on further consequences to not triggering a buy signal after Thursday’s EIA report. Now two consecutive closes under a multi-session range require there be at least an eventual third lower close before a recovery would be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday was the session that Wednesday tried to be. Gapping up and extending higher intraday helped to reject the one-day close under last week’s low. There is no unfinished business below, so any strength above 1.0785 would be likely to extend intraday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not confirming Tuesday’s breakout on Wednesday allowed Thursday’s overnight and intraday rallies to probe above 1082.50 resistance. Closing higher Friday would all but confirm a bottom has formed.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday night’s rally was retraced into Thursday’s open, but then repeated intraday, to suggest that a bottom is forming. No new low is required.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up through 154-10 resistance and extending higher to attack 155-00 is a breakout that still must be confirmed Friday by a second consecutive higher close. Otherwise, it will have served only to trap longs and then launch a new downleg.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Momentarily probing under Wednesday’s low Thursday held the 40.00 area as had its previous attacks and tests. Its support is being chipped away and becoming vulnerable to breaking lower, so a recovery cannot afford to wait past Friday.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from a position of strength, but neither was it positioned as weak as could have been the case. Nevertheless, the session trended back down under 2.31. It’s not a sell signal or a breakout, so any initial strength Friday would still be credible for extending higher.