Bigger Picture
Livestox Recording Nov 12, 2015
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Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX — Recent ongoing weakness likely has been in the context of a temporary correction.
USO — Major near-term decline target met
GLD — Major downside decline target met
INSY — Be concerned if long under 26, but otherwise not a compelling pattern
GWPH — False break from Ascending Triangle suggests one more fresh low coming which will produce by signal
CARA — Bounce objective met, not exceeded
XXII — Potential to resume the rally but not currently signaled
TWMJF, ORGMF, SPRWF — 3rd-Day Surges seem to have sucked in every speculative, weak-handed, overly-optimistic, impatient buyer. A lot of time needed to consolidate or correct.
LXRP — Price and volume patterns remain attractive
TRTC — Recent bounce fizzled but new lows still likely
SUNE — Example of story stocks competing with momentum
TWTR — Not rejecting its dip under the 28 area
AAPL — Reacting down from its 122 bounce target
FEYE — Very premature to be bottom-fishing
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s surge is a credible first effort at rejecting the current lows. Closing above 1.0785 for two consecutive sessions would help to reverse momentum up.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning’s lows at 1073.00 fulfilled the decline’s outstanding 1074.50 objective. Reacting up almost instantly to 1089.00 at least reflects how much selling pressure had been neutralized. But closing above 1082.00 to actually begin sealing a bottom must still be confirmed.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having extended its drop while Gold was ranging, their roles were somewhat reversed Thursday morning. But now rallying simultaneously would confirm each other’s trend reversal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Thursday into the afternoon’s auction stopped short of reversing the trend up, leaving outstanding the likelihood for probing fresh lows.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Meeting the outstanding 43.00 target Wednesday didn’t prevent extending down Thursday well under 42.00, heading to 39.95 so long as bounces now hold any test of 42.75.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s consolidation under 2.31 ahead of Friday’s delayed EIA report doesn’t greet it from a position of strength. But a reaction up through both 2.31 and 2.37 would be credible for sealing a bottom and reversing the trend up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 13, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is both high-profile and influential. A pre-open and post-open report reflect the consumer, and a pre-open report reflects on producers. EIA Natty Gas was delayed a day for Wednesday’s holiday. And another Fed speaker takes the stage before the noon hour.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
11:45 AM ET
Livestox today… on Webex!
Today’s Livestox will be testing the Webex platform. It’s accessible via any device, so please let me know your experience with however you choose to connect.
CLICK HERE no later than the meeting’s 1:30pm ET start.
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See you there (and then — 1:30pm ET).
Daily Spot… Crude Oil meets its target.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s holiday trading was almost imperceptibly flat-to-higher, still neither confirming the decline’s momentum remains intact, nor rejecting it.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Very narrow ranging Wednesday maintained the attraction below to 1182.00 and eventually 1174.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight was retraced and rejected to probe fresh lows Wednesday. A weak open Thursday that were to recover firmly into positive territory at this stage of the pattern would be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging kept alive the decline’s momentum targeting fresh lows, ahead of what is likely to be headline-rich session — Thursday is littered with Fed speakers, and includes the monthly 30-year auction.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The outstanding 43.00 target was met Wednesday and ranged around. Probing it next down to 41.00 is possible so long as bounces were to hold any test of 43.45.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping back under 2.31 overnight still tried recovering into Wednesday’s close, but failed, as the balance of the session drifted lower. The setup remains intact for a same-session recovery of both 2.31 and 2.37 to launch a new rally leg.