Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/19/15) … WedEX, Fri, and Mon.
Confused by the WedEX setup? In this week’s Saturday Review, I do my best not to confuse you even more. Good luck with that. We also discuss the “failed Ascending Triangle” types and their consequences, and expiration’s possible resolutions Monday.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
RY, MFC, SU, XLP, AAPL
09/19/2015 10:38:26 s: thx
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’re in the middle of a WedEX signal, and we’ll discuss what it is, and what it is not. The week’s FOMC surge has reversed down sharply, either on the way to new lows, or else a warning shot across the bow. We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Daily Spot… Fallout.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh highs overnight were retraced by Friday’s reaction down that retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s range, correcting the rally but not reversing back down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing the rally’s 1141.50 target to within 20 cents created a reaction down that failed to hold its 1139.20 pullback limit, suggesting the rally’s momentum has now lapsed.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs Friday morning tested 15.45 before reversing back down under 15.25, and also under the 15.10 pullback limit. Another buy signal must be generated before resuming the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 152-30 Friday had signaled momentum reversing up, and gapping up sharply Friday extended even higher to retest Monday’s prior highs u to 155-24.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Wednesday’s break higher to 47.70 Thursday was vulnerable to reversing down without delay, which Friday seems to have begun doing by dropping to 42.25.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Recovering back within the channel Thursday didn’t prevent Friday from retesting Thursday’s 2.60 intraday low. It held, but it wasn’t rejected, and must still recover at least 2.68 to signal momentum reversing up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 21 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s housing sector report isn’t usually very influential, but might be influential this week since it’s the first report on Monday. The afternoon’s Fed speaker should keep the market active into the noon hour.
*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot… Fed, up.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
With no excuse for further delaying the rally’s resumption, Thursday’s open gapped up to the range’s upper-end and the session extended higher. It eventually surged in reaction to the FOMC non-decision, fulfilling the requirement for a third higher close. Momentum remains intact so long as 1.1365 now holds as support.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s low utilized all but 20 cents of room for a pullback to 1114.50 before being likely to resume the rally. The FOMC reaction did spike up to test 1131.00, now requiring pullbacks to hold 1126.00 as support.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping Thursday didn’t threaten the 14.65 pullback limit before reacting up sharply to the FOMC statement, testing 15.25. Pullbacks must now hold 15.10 to maintain the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having fulfilled its third lower close Wednesday, Thursday eventually firmed ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Then it surged and extend higher to test 153-16. Since a fresh low was avoided intraday, closing above 152-30 allows a bigger rally to get underway.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
No matter the margin by which Wednesday’s gap up extended through 46.00, lacking a second consecutive higher close Thursday could be very bearish.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report while attacking the ongoing channel’s lower-end wasn’t a position of weakness, but it wasn’t enough to prevent a knee-jerk reaction to fresh lows. That knee-jerk reaction recovered back up into the range, potentially forming a bottom — at least, making any initial firming Friday likely to extend higher, but requiring a close above 2.68-2.70 to reverse the trend up.