Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s surge had retraced to settle at a test of 1.1470, keeping alive the recovery’s momentum. Surging to a fresh high overnight was retraced again Thursday morning, but left outstanding its opening gap above all prior highs wanting to be retested. And it was retested going into the close, still suggesting momentum remains intact.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close FOMC reaction had tested the newly adjusted sell signal, but recovered overnight to probe fresh highs Thursday morning up to 1266.00. Its correction recovered fresh highs attacking 1270.00. The trend remains up so long as 1247.80 now holds as support, next targeting 1284.00 and potentially 1319.50. Triggering the sell signal would likely unfold quickly to the downside.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting down to Wednesday’s post-close FOMC had retraced the intraday recovery from 14.71. Its overnight recovery retested the previously outstanding gap back up to 14.83 and its prior tests’ 14.90 highs. Closing back under 14.71 would reverse the trend back down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The confirmed breakout extended higher overnight without delay, probing the rally’s highest levels at 146-00 before dipping back to unchanged around 144-30. A pullback has room down to 144-28 before threatening the uptrend’s momentum, under down to 144-12 before reversing the trend down. Meanwhile, at least an eventual third higher close is required before a trend reversal would be credible.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s gap down under 47.00 probed fresh trend low under 45.70, closing under the 46.45 prior low and resume the decline’s momentum. The nearest buy signal remains above 48.70.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Thursday back up to 4.83 created potential for blip-up to 4.01-4.11 that stretches the rubber band before snapping back down to fresh lows potentially targeting 3.33. But the session resolved back down toward Wednesday’s lows, still vulnerable to extending down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
No further delay was needed before trending up through 1.1470 since Tuesday had confirmed Monday’s bounce. Wednesday’s open at 1.1470 did trend sharply higher to 1.1530 until FOMC news triggered a drop back down to 1.1470.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting 1255.00 overnight didn’t hold this time, and Wednesday morning trended up to fresh highs testing 1262.00. The FOMC reaction plunged down to 1248.00, which is the newly adjusted sell signal.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing 14.71 at the open, Wednesday morning firmed to fill the gap back up to the 14.83 high close. Its post-close reaction to FOMC fell back down to 14.71.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events from a position of strength, the morning trended up to fresh highs. Its reaction extended to probe 145-00, confirming Tuesday’s breakout to require at least an eventual third higher close.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s bounce held its limit, while also not confirming Tuesday’s plunge as being a breakout. A bottom and recovery are now free to form, so extending to a fresh low close Thursday would be bearish.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce that filled the gap back up to Friday’s 4.81 close had only neutralized attractions above, enabling Wednesday to reverse back down and attack fresh pullback lows. While basing is still likely, it could include dips to 4.33.