Bigger Picture

One day until this month”s FOMC policy statement is released. All eyes are focused on whether “patience” verbiage remains, or disappears. Since no longer being patient would make a rate hike closer (in or by June), the presumption is that the market will react poorly after the statement. Maybe. We”re still a lot higher than since the Fed ended the latest QE, despite expectations to the contrary.

So, tomorrow afternoon will be wonderfully volatile and opportunistic. We”ll have Livestox during the noon hour to game out the market”s reactions, and to review stocks. Meanwhile, here”s the latest stock discussion in case you missed it, and to make it visible to the search engine…

Michel — is .41 a good entry point now for Oxis? Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — So has the S&P closed under or over the watershed? Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — OXIS — Still not a very easily timed pattern, sorry Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — fennecby — Not a bullish close. But that wouldn”t preclude a bounce, only doom it to failure if attempted too quickly Posted 5 days ago
KiteGradient — Nice work Rod. Very confident call on MINE. Thanks. Can you please comment on VAPE close compared to the target close you mentioned? Posted 5 days ago
Rod David — VAPE — What was the “target close”? I don”t see anything different in the pattern that doesn”t still allow room to test .79 simply as noise in the range. Posted 5 days ago
Jo B — Rod any clue why WDHR WEEDHIRE is trading over 250m shares these past 2 days? What cold be up in ur opinion? Posted 5 days ago
Josey — CYBR getting a major haircut premarket on secondary offering. Posted 5 days ago
KiteGradient — I think you said a close above .65 or so would have some meaning Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — WDHR — I think that was the first stock question answered in yesterday”s Livestox, after the market outlook… I would only add that it”s the same in principle to the volume expansion in SRNA in November Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — VAPE — The timing of a late surge probed above .65 isn”t very convincing. A second consecutive higher close would quell the skepticism. Posted 5 days ago
Jo B — I got home late last nite and did not have time to review the livestox video. Now I am in work. So I have no clue what was said! Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — Ahhh, understood — Only that it”s irrelevant, especially if it doesn”t move price. Posted 5 days ago
Josey — http://blogs.windsorstar.com/news/health-canada… FITX article Posted 5 days ago — “Edited”
fennecby — ORA just flying – overshooting the upper end of your previous target (35.25). Seems overvalued to me fundamentally, but technically where”s it going? Posted 5 days ago
Miss Kitty — How do you view today”s rally in the S&P, Rod? Do you think it is sustainable for a new high? What are the parameters you are watching? I understand you cover this oh minute detail in another service so whatever general thoughts you are comfortable sharing here will be appreciated but not expected. Posted 5 days ago
Rod David — ORA — The next higher target is 39.75, so long as 35.25-35.50 now holds as support. The catalyst behind February”s breakout seems to be a major paradigm shift, because that was a very long-term consolidation now breaking relentlessly higher. Posted 5 days ago
Rod David — The pullback fell to its lowest levels yesterday, and today the market is gapping up and surging sharply. Things didn”t change too much in the interim 15 hours. I”m viewing this as just a temporary corrective bounce, whether it is ending before today”s close, or after Monday”s open. Posted 4 days ago
Miss Kitty — Thanks, Rod. Much appreciated. Posted 4 days ago
Josey — PAL closing under .21 would be a sell, holding and closing above .216 buy? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — PAL — Volume has contracted during the past week”s consolidation, whose price pattern has formed a Descending Triangle. A high-volume surge would be credible for resuming the rally, initially targeting a test of .265. Meanwhile, the triangle is likelier to probe lower, first. Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — thanks Rod. ORA did indeed get a major investment pricing its holdings at a much higher valuation than before.
And on a different subject – do you view UVXY as a suitable hedge for the coming plunge? Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Brett-ster — Rod, where do you see support on PZOO, if any? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — UVXY — I”ve never been a proponent of VIX for retail hedging. Not that its relationship to the market”s direction doesn”t prevent it being an appropriate hedge, but there are other sophisticated intricacies and potential pitfalls. Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — PZOO — The Universe”s 005 support has been overlapped for awhile. If it fails to hold ultimately, then the next lower objective in play would be .002 Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — what would you recommend for retail hedging then? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — Diversification and timing. The timing element would fulfilled be a bear ETF, e.g. SPXS Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — great, thanks. Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — where do you see TEVA going if the breakout holds this time around? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — TEVA — potential to 68.65, if not also 75.30 Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
tamaramessmann — FITX- could you tell me the relevant levels please now that .0070 has been touched. Posted 4 days ago
casjf — SCTY – A few days ago you said extending the down-leg would next target $47.35-$47.70. Is this a good place to bottom fish? Posted 4 days ago
DSpenc — Rod – ONVO – good entry? Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — FITX — Closing under .007 would identify the next lower support, but that actual close under .007 must be known to calculate it. Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — SCTY — The low is only 48.60 Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — ONVO — Long? Holding 4.50 can still recover to test 5.11-5.30, but that must be exceeded to suggest an actual recovery is underway instead of only a temporary corrective bounce Posted 4 days ago
DSpenc — yes, Thank you. Posted 4 days ago
casjf — Thanks! Posted 4 days ago
casjf — ASMB – support & target Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — ASMB — Closing above 15.70 on volume expansion would trigger a new upleg, with interim resistance at 17.80, targeting 20.05 Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — thanks Rod.
Does TISA need to close above yesterday”s high to trigger a trend change, or is closing above the Nov-Jan congestion enough? Or is there another critical level here (Oct low seems a candidate)?
And what would then be the target? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — TISA — Good question. The support to January”s consolidation was under prior lows. So, recovering its consolidation won”t reverse the trend up, but would start to end the decline. It”s still a series of lower lows and lower highs, so at least one prior high (September) must be recovered to even begin signaling the trend is reversing up. That might seem unreasonable, being so far back in time. But actually the reversal standard naturally becomes more difficult to achieve when the trend is that much more entrenched. Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — (cont. TISA) – then why the September high rather than the early November high? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — TISA — Yes… Be sure you have an entire year in your chart view. November”s high was just a bounce from above prior lows, not from any relevant area. Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — I think I go it.
In that sense, if this week”s bounce actually resolves down to new lows, then the current highs as well as early February”s bounce would be similarly irrelevant levels as future reference?
(and incidentally, September highs figure quite nicely as a 38.2% retracement of the January to May & June decline. Would that make $2.5 a “stronger” place to bottom?) Posted 3 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — Let”s look at this during Monday”s Livestox, and I”ll identify the relevant points, and we can look at more Fibonacci relationships. Posted 3 days ago
fennecby — cool. Posted 3 days ago
Jo B — finally had a chance to listen to Livestox!! thanks Rod, and ur right, it”s not just about individual stocks but learning to read the charts better and understand more about the patterns to predict where the price could be going. I”m a slow learner sometimes because life gets in the way, but I enjoy the lessons! Posted 3 days ago
Jo B — will u be posting ”the Universe” tonite/ Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — In about an hour, yes Posted Yesterday
Jo B — great ty
Chameleon — I continue to see deterioration in oil. Breaking support of 48 met 45 quickly. Heading for 40 next. Cannabis doesn”t appear any brighter. Don”t mind sideline viewing with patience in check. Having RD”s voice in my ear to remain vigilant in watching signals and not trying to guess with bottom fishing ambitions. Posted Yesterday
Jo B — thanks ROD Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — Crude Oil met my next lower target at last night”s open — which was to probe under the prior low into the $43 range. That pattern requires either an abrupt recovery back to the interim high, or else another $6-7 drop. Posted Yesterday
Chameleon — It is so weak…. along with the pot sector. Looking elsewhere for opportunities as more pressing professional responsibilities require both eyes away from the trading screen. Thanks. I know that”s not part of this service and you are quite generous to offer the insight. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — If you”re looking for another weak, may as well check out 3D printing… another sector that”s at the very bottom of a yearlong decline (not to say that it”s the ultimate bottom, but given all those “bright future” projections you”d think it would stop declining at *some* point. Luckily I”ve been on the sidelines on that one). Posted Yesterday
KiteGradient — MINE – I don”t follow the fundamentals closely, but did something override the technical move to sub 0.038? Posted Yesterday
casjf — SCTY – support & resistance — do you think this will try to gap fill back to $40.50 levels from 10/2014? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — MINE — So far, .0062 support has been overlapped only, and broken, which would put into play .0038. At this stage, the nearest buy signal is a close back above .0092 Posted Yesterday
casjf — ISIS – support & resistance Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — SCTY — If this test of 47.40 support (being probed today sharply by 1 point) doesn”t hold, then the next lower objective would be 37.50,.. That happens to coincide with an outstanding gap, but the objective is a function of the massive Descending Triangle pattern that”s been forming for awhile. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — ISIS — Closing above 71.75 would target 76.65. Under 65.40 would start to signal a bigger downleg underway to 50 or 44. Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
fennecby — CARA”s got nothing to look for in this area unless it”s going down further, true? Posted Yesterday
fennecby — and potential breakout on WFC would lead it where? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — CARA — Although the uptrend”s momentum has lapsed, this dip to 9.65-9.80 is still within the room for noise around the high, and back above 10.40 would signal the rally is trying to resume Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — WFC — January formed an inverted Head & Shoulders that tested 55.55 resistance, which is being retested following an interim dip to 53.25. Extending higher would next target 56.65 and potentially 58.40 Posted Yesterday
fennecby — pretty lame then, re WFC.
And thanks for both. Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — YO ROD, happy monday! BLPH went public in Feb. .It”s been climbing back and above it”s IPO. R U able to set parameters yet? Thanks Posted Yesterday
Josey — Falling knife or bounce trade in BAS? Need one more day? Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Rod-David — BLPH — Sorry, not enough history for much reliability. If today”s surge isn”t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close tomorrow, than the risk to new lows under 8 becomes great. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — BAS — Falling Knife catch… to where? A lot of resistance at 6.25, which may be a decent return, but not on a risk:reward comparison. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — How”s AGEN looking here for a long? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — AGEN — I like the ascending consolidation that has formed since reacting down to January”s surge. It has been awhile, but that was a big shock to the system that needed to be absorbed. I would expect the rally to resume unless 4.75 fails to hold as support. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — and target, if and when? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — AGEN — 7.35 and 8.40, but no particular timing Posted 23 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. Posted 23 hours ago
kit650kr — YO ROD – I”m looking to get long in PLKI, AZO, SNA and CRM. Can u guide me? Posted 16 hours ago
Rod David — PLKI — Having held its 58 pullback limit, continuing without further delay back above 62 and 63.85 would target 74.40. Posted 3 hours ago
Rod David — AZO — A preliminary pullback limit at 638.25 has reacted back up to the high”s test of 666.20. Now pullbacks must hold 648.90 to confirm the pullback completed, and to allow the rally to extend higher to 711.50 and potentially 728. Posted 3 hours ago
Rod David — SNA — Back above 146.60 would signal a probe underway targeting a retest of its 148.40 high and 154-155.40. Back under 141.40-141.85 would instead target 131, which would be vulnerable to breaking lower to 118. Posted 3 hours ago
Rod David — CRM — A pullback could test 61.20, or even 58.25, and still maintain potential to 81.05. Posted 3 hours ago
casjf — PXD – support & resistance Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — PXD — Support is 145.50 down to 140. Resistance, which doesn”t require being tested, is 169.37 Posted 2 hours ago
casjf — PXD – is this forming an ascending triangle? (looking at daily chart over 6 months) Not clear what you mean by saying resistance doesn”t require being tested. Does that mean you don”t think it will, or that it could blast through it? Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — PXD — The consolidation off of the lows that looks like an Ascending Triangle needed to extend higher on its Feb breakout. Its reaction back into the Triangle was acceptable, but so much time has since elapsed that extending higher couldn”t be associated with the original triangle. Meanwhile, that”s not really a triangle, since its pattern overlaps the prior low on Nov 28. Also, the volume patterns aren”t bullish, e.g. barely expanding on the Feb breakout attempt, expanding on the breakout attempt”s reaction back down… It seems more of a continuation pattern… Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — PXD — …There”s no requirement to test 169.37 resistance before continuing down. But testing it first and then continuing down would be that much more bearish. Not testing it before continuing down would suggest that sellers weren”t very refueled, so that the fresh low could be more capable of forming a bottom. Closing above 169.37 could extend to 178.50, but not yet signal a durable recovery underway that avoids resuming the decline. Posted 2 hours ago
casjf — Thanks

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week .]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

The percentage of marijuana stocks in 4-week uptrends had shrunk a little last week. It continued shrinking again this week, to just 12%, and that”s with the help of big caps GPWH and INSY.

Deterioration should seem odd on its face, since there seems to have been only good news recently — Federal legislation proposed, more talk in more states… Either the massive majority of the sector is unaware of how good things are getting or about to get, or else some other variable is missing from the equation.

In my experience, usually it”s the latter. Perhaps that variable is excessive valuation compared to shares outstanding, which dilutes the good news. Maybe there”s something else on the horizon not so good, or the market has concluded that the various legislation will be delayed.

The “why” is important at some point, but stocks don”t tend to probe new lows right before good news is about to be released. f your stock(s) is trending down in this environment, especially if it”s probing fresh lows, be sure you”re prepared to own it for awhile as it probes even lower.

FITX was a good example of that narrative, continually probing lower and lower while hopes eternally sprang higher and higher. This week brought dire news for it. MCIG may fit that potentially bearish description, too. Some issues trying to bottom include ARNA, CANL and NTRR (again).

Wednesday”s Livestox began with an overview of the market, and of the Dollar, then covered the following stocks in the following order…

SPX

UUP

WDHR

CYBK

SIVB

TWTR

AAPL

EDXC

MCIG

TAUG

TRTC

CBIS

VAPE

GWPH

NLNK

Today”s LivestoX starts at 12:15pm ET. Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Other requirements can be found here:
http://marketfy.com/product/stock-technical-trade-alerts/blog/1143/view/60141/

Here”s a few recent Activity Feed posts… add yours below and we”ll review it during Livestox.
Jo B — Support for MINE?
Josey — What would be the next downward target for CYBR? TY!
Rod-David — MINE — Support was about .008, .0078… next lower support is .0035
Rod-David — CYBR — Next targeting 47.75 if this test of 53.05 doesn”t hold today, and then react up from here to close back above 56.35