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Bigger Picture – Page 502 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

This morning”s LivestoX starts at

This morning”s LivestoX starts at 10:45am ET…

Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Other requirements can be found here:
http://marketfy.com/product/stock-technical-trade-alerts/blog/1143/view/60141/

Good morning! First, today”s Livestox

Good morning!
First, today”s Livestox is at 10:45 AM ET. Look for login instructions after the open.

Second, the market”s overnight pullback just recovered entirely by a surge. Its catalyst was leaked plans for tomorrow”s ECB policy statement. Although criticized for being too small, the leak at least confirms some action is forthcoming.

Livestox will look at that, and at actionable stocks along with updating older coverage, including:

FEYE — Bouncing back from its test of 31.50-32.65 support, tested 33.95 resistance yesterday. Closing above 33.95 today on expanding volume would likely rally into and out of the weekend.

GWPH — Its pullback into expiration attacked 72.50 support. Closing today above 76 on expanding volume would make the 82.25 resistance test likelier. But the bounce potential is reduced after today.

NFLX – Expiration closed above 328.35 resistance, avoiding yesterday”s strong post-close reaction to earnings. Upside potential to 404 or 414.

ARNA — Testing the lower-end of its 4.90-5.15 pullback limit.

Monitoring TSLA, AMZN, PCLN, HAL, ISRG, SBUX, Z, GSK, TRTC, TAUG

Good morning! An interesting week

Good morning!
An interesting week lies ahead. The earnings onslaught enters its second week, the State of the Union is tomorrow night, and Oscars are awarded over the weekend. None of which has anything to do with the broader market, not at this stage. Earnings influence is limited to its first week, and SOTU has nothing to do with the market. Oscars might be the most relevant item.

But two Central Banks (BOJ and ECB) are scheduled to make policy statements, and markets got excited for that. Having fallen to fresh lows last week, markets took a victory lap for having avoided the precipice. This morning”s trading is fading the optimism, as Europe”s exchanges prepare to close.

Updates to know:

CLF — Closing above its 8.80 resistance already signaled momentum reversing up, but a pullback has room to test 8.15 as support.

NFLX — Earnings due after the close.

Crude Oil — Still ranging around the decline”s targets, with time running dangerously short for launching a rally, (Specific triggers for futures traders are available in my Futures Timing service).

CDE — Had begun rallying before Silver”s recovery, and now only retesting its recent higher.

AMZN — Reversed a positive open to probe deeper into negative territory and threaten tumbling to new lows.

FEYE — Never touched 36.50 so never rejected it, would get a second bite at that apple back above 34.

EAPH — Consolidation around .0262 resistance has formed an Ascending Triangle no threatening to break higher.

CANN — Formed a Symmetrical Triangle that would be triggered above 9 and targeting 10.90.

Be careful with the MJ sector. Stocks like TAUG that have yet to validate not-so recent surges, or like TRTC that continue scraping support, are probably among the more vulnerable in case of a selling wave which is coming due.

The Universe, week of January 19 2015

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

The streak continues, as the stocks in rolling 4-week uptrends expands to 18% of the Universe. That”s with an assist from adding OXIS to the coverage, but the rest were new improvements.

Not all improving stocks have flipped their “flat” status to “up.” Case in point, MCIG. It had rallied already from fulfilling my .103 target to within an acceptable .004 reach. Testing and retesting of its .18 resistance finally broke through to close above it. But its rolling 4-week trend is still flat.

One more reminder: If you own a stock in this sector that hasn”t yet begun firming after trending down through year-end, then take a closer look. Enlist my help (actually, you already have by subscribing, and just need to bring the specific situation to my attention). Probabilities are high that the story doesn”t hold up.

Two more observations before closing… TRTC has retraced all of its new year surge — which never gained traction anyway — and sits precariously again at support. VAPE could be saved from new lows if it doesn”t delay rallying early this week no heavy volume, because that delay can be deadly at this stage.

The broader market is as frothy as I”ve ever seen it. This sector has found an opening to produce many rallies these first two weeks of the new year. Those two statements are different sides of the same coin. Note that the biggest benefit to the sector”s recent rallies may be the extra room available to absorb natural pullbacks without reversing their trends back down.

Enjoy!

Marijuana Stock Technical Trader”s Universe for January 19, 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week # up: 18 17.14%
trends* # flat: 20 19.05%
# down: 67 63.81%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.
symbol support resistance 4-week trend
ACAN 0.050 1.260 down
ACGX 0.000 0.003 up
AERO 3.500 4.700 flat
AGTK 0.005 0.127 down
AMMJ 0.500 1.070 flat
ARNA 4.900 7.350 up
ATTBF 0.135 0.202 flat
AVTC 1.350 1.800 flat
AXXU 0.066 0.377 down
BLOZF 0.074 0.154 flat
BLPG 0.120 0.370 down
BNRDF 0.605 0.795 up
BRDT 0.032 0.094 down
BTFL (cank) n/a n/a down
CANL 1.420 1.970 up
CANN 6.220 9.300 up
CANV 3.470 4.750 up
CARA 9.960 12.450 up
CBDS 7.150 10.100 flat
CBGI 0.002 0.015 down
CBIS 0.057 0.088 flat
CGRW (bzcn) n/a n/a up
CHUM n/a n/a down
CNAB 1.185 2.035 up
CTCO 0.060 0.330 down
DEWM 0.003 0.007 flat
DIGP 0.025 0.100 down
DSCR 0.001 0.025 down
EAPH 0.020 0.032 up
EDXC 0.031 0.077 down
ENDO 0.014 0.031 down
ENRT 0.048 0.100 flat
ERBB 0.011 0.017 flat
EXMT 0.000 0.004 down
FITX 0.007 0.023 down
FRTD n/a 0.008 flat
FSPM 0.018 0.315 down
FULL 4.380 5.230 down
FWDG 0.005 0.018 down
GBLX 0.208 0.486 down
GRCU 0.003 0.008 down
GRNH 0.090 0.174 flat
GWPH 71.950 81.500 flat
HEMP 0.032 0.048 flat
ICBU 0.008 0.016 flat
IGPK n/a n/a down
IGRW 0.001 0.004 down
IMLFF 0.095 0.140 down
INCC 0.001 0.007 down
INSY 43.000 51.700 up
ITNS 0.006 0.011 down
LATF 0.001 0.003 down
LXRP 0.084 0.129 up
MCIG 0.177 0.258 flat
MDBX 3.720 7.320 down
MDCN 0.000 0.168 down
MDRM 0.024 0.060 down
MINE 0.009 0.014 up
MJMD 0.011 0.082 down
MJMJ 0.020 0.499 down
MJNA 0.099 0.160 down
MJNE n/a n/a down
MNTR 0.660 1.767 up
MYEC 0.012 0.027 down
MYHI 0.000 0.380 down
NDEV 0.200 0.440 up
NRTI 0.001 0.048 down
NTRR 0.050 0.220 down
OGRMF 0.304 0.615 down
OSLH 0.009 0.021 down
OXIS 0.013 0.044 up
PAUFF n/a n/a down
PHOT 0.019 0.065 down
PLPL 0.263 0.426 flat
PMCB (nvlx) 0.155 0.215 flat
PNTV n/a n/a flat
PZOO 0.005 0.030 down
QEDN 0.001 0.007 down
REDG 0.001 0.003 up
RFMK 0.000 0.002 down
RSSFF 0.069 0.266 down
SING 0.002 0.009 down
SKTO 0.000 0.004 down
SPRWF 0.230 0.336 down
SRNA 0.303 0.550 down
STEV 0.071 0.100 down
TAUG 0.012 0.020 down
THCZ 0.007 0.017 down
TRTC 0.247 0.330 down
TURV 0.410 0.775 down
TWMJF 1.490 2.040 down
UPOT 0.340 0.900 down
USEI 0.000 0.003 down
UTRM 0.000 0.000 down
VAPE 0.490 0.930 down
VAPR 0.050 0.120 flat
VGPR 0.000 0.002 down
VHUB 0.022 0.040 up
VPCO 0.820 1.290 down
VPOR 0.000 0.009 down
VRCI 0.000 0.009 down
WDHR (anyi) 0.000 0.015 down
WOGI (cybk) 0.002 0.008 down
XTRM 0.000 0.006 down
XXII 1.110 1.560 down
ZDPY n/a n/a n/a

REMINDER — I”m away from

REMINDER — I”m away from the screens during today”s last hour. The very precariously positioned market might find another way to delay a deeper drop, Rallying into the final hour would suggest another short-squeeze underway like yesterday afternoon. Otherwise, fresh session lows into the final hour could discover quickly there is not much buying pressure at lower levels.