Bigger Picture

Tuesday”s Livestock reviewed quite a few Marijuana stocks, as many are currently or recently testing relevant levels or forming influential patterns.* We then reviewed the so-called January Effect stocks, which haven”t had a chance to perform since the year-end rally has sucked the oxygen out of the room. Don”t wait until the last-minute to request a chart analysis of any stock you”re considering for sale to lock-in profit or loss for tax purposes.

*Marijuana stocks reviewed in this order:

STEV – Closing Wednesday above Tuesday”s high would mark a bottom.

TAUG – Recent surge is Double-Topping, can”t afford to hesitate extending.

TRTC – Vulnerable to another 20% (i.e. nickel) dump.

VAPE – Reviewed the definition of downtrend.

CARA – Perpetually on the verge of a breakout.

NLNK (I know, not a MJ stock) – Massive ascending triangle still forming.

MDBX – Nothing bullish about retracing almost to the low.

ERBB – Still forming a massive triple bottom.

DEWM – Fresh low prevents bottom-fishing.

ATTBF – Can”t afford to hesitate rallying.

GBLX – Not distributive, but can only buy strength, not weakness.

FITX – Continuation triangles stopping optimistically preventing a bottom.

MCIG – Yesterday”s surge hit and held resistance.

INSY – Still large potential for bullish resolution.

GWPH – 61.8% retracements continue to reflect distribution.

This morning”s Livestock starts at 10:45am ET, and ends at 11:15. Bring your requests — Timing is critical if you are considering whether to take any losses and/or profits for tax purposes this year.

Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Other requirements can be found here:
http://marketfy.com/product/stock-technical-trade-alerts/blog/1143/view/60141/

I”ll be updating charts and parameters on Wednesday. Meanwhile, this season”s January Effect is living up to its name. That is, assuming it”s still coming.

The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer? With stocks, the strong have gotten stronger, and the weak have gotten weaker. December”s gains earlier market gains can”t be considered a traditional “Santa Claus rally” since the rising tide didn”t lift all boats. Rather, it was focused more on leaders and middlers. Laggards fell further behind.

Crude Oil”s near-term rally potential lies almost entirely on either entering or exiting the weekend rallying sharply. Rallying into the weekend is no longer an option.

Marijuana stocks have definitely been included in the spotlight of 2014 reviews, but not always favorably. And the Nebraska-Oklahoma lawsuit against Colorado is getting a higher profile now, too.

Precious Metals initially slid last week. All of that ground has yet to be recovered, but our silver mining stock continues to improve. That suggests the sector my be positioning for its underlying commodity to rally.

Specifically, my suspicion about ARNA was confirmed. As was NCT”s potential Head & Shoulders pattern trying to form. OCN pierced its stop and lost 50% from there. CBIS had become unattractive already, but the drip-drip-drip suggests a bigger capitulation coming.

Don”t hesitate to ask for any update on any issue — especially this week when year-end tax moves are being considered.

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

Last week”s anecdotal observation was of the many stocks testing or attacking supports. That hasn”t changed. 

Without reading their minds, it would seem that tax loss selling has reached a feverish pace. What could be motivating that more so than weeks earlier — the fast-approaching Dec 31 deadline for such sales? Perhaps. 

We won”t know more about that answer until January”s trading has gotten underway. Will we have seen the support tests end before then?

The holiday break has ended and the week will end soon, too. In that small window we have found some holiday cheer leftovers. Be sure to request instant chart analysis in this thread.

VAPE — Reacting down from the open”s test of $1, almost a 61.8% retracement of the prior downleg. Closing back under .835 would signal that this bounce had likely ended, at least to test .72-.76. Remember, this is still an ongoing series of lower highs and lower lows, so the trend hasn”t yet reversed up.

INSY — Having held its opening surge to 44.42 resistance Tuesday, and then closing under 42.25, the pattern can”t be bought into weakness which might extend. Only a high-volume surge would be credible at this point for resuming the rally.

Crude Oil — Yet another early probe of resistance has been retraced back to its origin. Be very cautious if holding energy stocks today, because repeatedly failing to gain traction on these false starts can suddenly turn the bottoming pattern into a big trap door.

Energy stock — Widespread firming does undermine Crude Oil suddenly launching a new downleg. And this is while Natural Gas extends its downtrend to fresh lows. It”s still premature, but exiting the weekend with Crude Oil rallying would be the chance for energy stocks to bottom.

CDE — Rallied last week a couple of times while the underlying metal was deteriorating. That relative outperformance is now being reinforced by Silver actually rallying strongly overnight.