Bigger Picture

Today”s one thing is… knee-jerk.

I wonder if anyone is planning to dress up as Ebola next weekend. Too soon? 

But, seriously, is there anything scarier than Ebola right now. Not to the overnight market, which doubled yesterday afternoon”s late plunge. That”s 200 Dow points in 12 hours. This morning”s open is an hour away, but currently it”s indicated to be back up at yesterday”s low. So, it”s got that going for it.

The market”s knee-jerk reactions to headlines tend to be temporary, and fully retraced. That rule has tended to be reliable, but never assures how far the reaction will first extend. For now, recovering positive territory an hour past the open should be bullish. Still struggling in negative territory could mean a tough day ahead — and that”s just for people without Ebola.

It”s not that knee-jerk reactions to headlines are irrelevant. Everything is relevant. That”s why price can change so significantly. But the price has changed, and the cause of the price change has been disseminated. Everyone to whom that news matters has reduced their exposure accordingly, and more so in anticipation of similar headlines coming.

That means when another headline comes — and it will come — those who anticipated it will have sold already. So long as the headline is just more of the same and not an unforeseen new wrinkle, then its impact was already discounted by the market. Move on.

Now that it is finished looking backward, the market”s gaze can turn forward again to see what other obstacles and opportunities might lie in its path. Like 25 ECB banks failing their stress tests. Oh, well…

Filter THIS! …is a missive that tells you one thing, the most important thing, if you had to filter your view of today”s marijuana stocks price action through just one thing — okay, sometimes two — what would that one thing be?

Good morning! We continue getting indications of the Cannabis sector rolling upward to form the first pre-January Effect bounce. Recent participants include HEMP, GRNH, ERBB, TRTC, MCIG, AGTK, NVLX and MDBX. Three that may be beginning to participate are CNAB, GBLX and VPOR.

Following are the summaries of stocks discussed during this morning”s Livestock, including the four new candidates:

TAUG, Reiterated the risk to fresh lows targeting .11-.12
EDXC, If able to close above .065-.075, then a second consecutive higher confirming close would also be needed.
ATTBF, Back above .315 would avoid new lows.
STEV, Still with proximity of .10 and percolating, but no earlier entry would be justified.
MCIG, Closing above .28 would confirm a bottom has reversed up.
GWPH, Closed above 68.70 to end the decline”s momentum, but needs a second consecutive higher close to reverse momentum up.
TRTC, Pullback must hold .32 to maintain the bottoming and recovery potential.
VAPE, Spent time detailing the false break and impressive volume patterns. So long as .97 holds as support, targeting 1.43 and 1.73 resistance.
SPRWF, Held its pullback limit to maintain the upside momentum that is now resuming, closing above .47 would target .52.
TKMR, Holding 19.50 pullback limit has room for bouncing up to 24.50.
NLNK, Testing new resistance that requires closing above 36.50-37 to maintain potential to 41.85-42.25.
NFLX, Having touched 376 intraday, closing above it is needed to confirm 404.45 target is in-play.
GSK, Closing above 44 would signal the bottom is forming.
PCL, January Effect candidate: Closing above 41.50 would reverse momentum up, so long as pullbacks now hold 40.50.
CLF, January Effect candidate: Closing above 9.35 would reverse momentum up, so long as pullbacks now hold 7.25
RIG, January Effect candidate: Closing above 31.50 would reverse momentum up, so long as pullbacks now hold 29.18.

Wednesday”s Livestock covered the following stocks in this order (summaries will be posted later):

TAUG, EDXC, ATTBF, STEV, MCIG, GWPH, TRTC, VAPE, SPRWF, TKMR, NLNK, NFLX,GSK, PCL, CLF, RIG

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