Bigger Picture

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

A
documentary of the 1987 stock market crash is playing on one of my other monitors as I write these comments. It”s really about the crash”s rescue, thanks to risk takers who step in front of bullet”s path. They were relying on general principles of the marketplace still having some relevance when no one was certain the marketplace would continue to exist.

I”ve been reading a lot already this weekend, and intend to read much more, about the 1987 crash. I was there in real-time, but can always use a refresh on the nuances and timing of different intraday events. Things like Gold being up strongly on Monday out of fear, and down sharply Tuesday to cover equity calls elsewhere. Delayed opens, wide spreads, uncertain fills… 

The reason for the refresher is the broader market”s ongoing decline. Last week”s volatility reminded me very much of the week or two into October 16, the Friday prior to the crash. Friday afternoon”s slide to new lows was identical, too. Another crash, or another crash setup that the market usually finds a way to absorb and to reverse? Ask me again Monday afternoon. For now, I”m preparing.

Marijuana stocks” universe doesn”t generally overlap with the world that causes or effects crashes and their consequences. But they don”t exist in a vacuum. Plunging financial assets is not like a broken leg that needs to be set, but like a flu that the entire body feels. If the decline persists — at any pace, whether crashing or sliding — Marijuana stocks will hurt, too. 

As we discussed in this week”s
January Effect webinar, extending the broader market decline”s could force/allow Marijuana stocks to find a near-term bottom and bounce. The first bounce is usually short-lived, and the second bottom is harder to buy. Regardless, extending this decline at any pace — instead of it reversing immediately and delaying the inevitable — would be a game changer. With few exceptions, the most profitable game in Marijuana stocks has been patience. It might not be too long before that game changes.

Enjoy!

Let”s have a week-ending Livestock at 2:00 ET. It has been a volatile week (this morning was a volatile month), and you probably have a couple of stocks that need updating. Follow the link below. (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)

https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #

The January Effect — What it is, How to trade, Three to stalk…

We”ll be filtering stocks through this extra lens during the year”s fourth quarter. It”s premature to start buying for bounces due to most tax loss sellers being done. But tax loss selling might be reach a crescendo that allows an interim bounce before a last leg down.

[Note that the GoToWebinar software unilaterally revoked my desktop feed at one point. That”s being edited out in a future version, but you”ll need to scroll through it for the time being.]

Have you registered yet for tonight”s “January Effect” webinar? Even if you”re not attending, registering will ensure you receive the recording link ASAP after the event. So, please be sure to register… The event begins at 7:30 ET.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1820053309492481

Summaries from Wednesday morning”s Livestock, and a reminder to join us for Thursday night”s members-only January Effect presentation…
AGTK, Very relevant support tested at Wednesday”s low, and room for a bounce up to .128, but not yet a recovery.
VAPE, Closing under 1.58 all but requires new lows, and probably no near-term recovery.
ATTBF, Almost obligatory at this point to test .25.
STEV, Impressive price action and relative strength, none of which will matter until closing above .10.
SPRWF, Narrow ranging has lost all pretense of being pattern, but closing above .36 on volume would still be bullish.
TAUG, Friday”s late pop into the close was retraced entirely, but on weaker volume, none of which prevents fresh lows, but does help to absorb them.
TRTC, Retesting .25-.25 might suffice to form the pullback”s bottom, but no rush to get involved before then.
INSY, The 45.70 target requires that pullbacks hold 37.25 as best as possible.
MCIG, Taking too long for a corrective dip or retest of recent lows, so closing under .25 would target.132.
HEMP, Must close above .0333 to be relevant.
GWPH, Resumed the decline Thursday, targeting 68.
FITX, Still bigger picture distribution.
VPOR, — Pullback is threatening to extend just a bit deeper which would be too deep for being only a corrective dip.
TKMR, pullback held where last week”s surge was launched. The close tested but failed to recover 24,50 resistance. It must be recovered to end the consolidation or decline.
NLNK, too deep to bottom fish in this market, but be prepared to act quickly on early strength.