Bigger Picture

A late surge yesterday probed a fresh session high, and probed above Friday afternoon”s high. That was the only rally-like price action since Thursday, and it has been retraced entirely overnight. That effort is desperately in need of a companion, or it will die of loneliness, and take the market with it.

So, opening in positive territory, or quickly recovering it, would tend to be bullish. But even the most bullish scenario might be limited in its productivity ahead of tomorrow”s FOMC policy statement.

We”ll look at the market indexes and review stocks during this morning”s Livedesk at 10:45 ET. Bring your stock chart analysis requests, too. Don”t forget that there”s no Thursday post-close Unlimited session this week.

An interesting open, which recovered last night”s spike down, but didn”t reverse the trend back up. Meanwhile, not much noteworthy price action among MJ stocks this morning — just more of the same. I posted the following observations in the previous thread.

First, let”s switch things around a little this week. Livedesk will be tomorrow instead of today, and then also Thursday morning since there is no Unlimited this week. But don”t hesitate to add your requests for chart analysis to this post”s thread.
MCIG — I would caution that MCIG still has an attraction to .2405 outstanding, and delaying its test has only formed a Descending Triangle that makes .2405 less likely to hold as support when first tested. Closing first above .29 could avoid the fresh lows.

TAUG — Bouncing a little, and might be a compelling long-entry above .0216. But otherwise indicating fresh lows ahead at least to .016.

GWPH — Weak on expanding volume, testing its 87 support. Last week”s tests of 91.50 already had undermined buyers, so this initial dip needs to reset and resume the rally quickly to avoid gaining traction into a bigger decline.

Make it quit! Futures began trading almost an hour ago, and immediately spiked down to probe under Friday afternoon”s lows. The Dow fell 60 points, and S&P futures fell 9 points. It”s a long way to the open, and greeting the new week with extreme sentiment often proves to be a sentiment extreme. But this isn”t the safest place on the charts for the rally to try defending. I”ll add other updates and observations to this thread overnight…

[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to ||Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

Sometimes, “unchanged” is no small victory. Last week”s percentages of both stocks in uptrends and stocks in downtrends contracted. The percentage of stocks that are ranging sideways remained the same.

The two prior weeks had made a tentative promise, and then took it away. Uptrend percentages had expanded, and that was followed by renewed weakness. Not immediately extending the weakness makes the prior week”s deterioration suspect.

How bullish can that possibly be, when high-profile stocks like TRTC, ATTBF, VPOR and MCIG continue falling to lower and lower lows? Those stocks — no stocks — are a proxy for the sector at this stage. Let”s ask the question another way: Why aren”t downtrending stocks increasing their percentage while ATTBF, MCIG, etc. extend their declines? 

This action is not to be confused with relative strength. Down is down. And flat is not up. But these stats do suggest the environment may be more responsive to outside influences. The ongoing decline has either ignored positive developments in the sector, or else responded only momentarily.

One very recent development is news that a Warren Buffet / Berkshire Hathaway company is marketing to growers. This development”s significance is simply that it raises the sector”s profile among more people. There is otherwise no impact on the sector. Any reaction should be temporary, but not reacting would be bearish. I”ll assess the impact Monday.

-=Enjoy

With personal assistance from Nathan at Marketfy HQ, the full recording of yesterday”s post-close Livedesk Unlimited is now available… Thanks, Nathan!
https://new.livestream.com/accounts/7617211/events/2865745

My comments from the prior thread are below. Be careful going into the weekend — liquidity evaporates considerably in penny stocks, making them less predictable. That can cut either way. It can also be predictive, so big sell-offs can be clues that pessimism is running its course. Similarly, squeezes that don”t recover relevant resistance can prove to be temporary corrections.

TKMR — Opening strong, at least to retest yesterday”s high. Volume is expanding again, so there is no tolerance for this pattern not to extend higher into the weekend.

NLNK — Compensating for not participating yesterday with TKMR, gapping up to last week”s highs on expanding volume. A pullback to 27.00-27.25 isn”t required, but is possible without invalidating the rally effort.

ERBB — Couldn”t delay rallying from yesterday”s in-range close under its pullback limit. In fact, surging back above the .0176 pullback limit on expanding volume. Closing back under .0176 today would not get a second chance to recover.

CNAB — Testing its 1.25 pullback limit that came into view by failing to hold 1.70.

GWPH — Yesterday”s high held a test of prior highs, and now the open”s probe above yesterday”s high is reversing back down, too. Back under 88.50-89.00 would signal momentum is reversing down.

VPOR — Still on its reaction down from .05 resistance, next targeting .025.

ISIS — (I think they prefer “ISIL”)… A better pullback would have tested 35.75 instead of just touching lower prior highs around 37.25 before recovering. This leg still has potential to 45, so long as 39-39.75 holds as support.

VRNS — Now support to a pullback would be 21.75, which must hold to maintain the recovery”s momentum.

PLPL — The first upbar took out almost two weeks of prior highs, while volume expanded. And volume has continued expanding into rising prices. Needs to hold .29-.31 as support to maintain the rally”s momentum, which is targeting .47 and .60.

TAUG — Having tested .0188, a recovery would be signaled back above .022. There”s otherwise no nearby support that might qualify as a bottom.

TWMJF — Despite firming recently, price remains range bound. Closing above 2.50-2.54 would begin to qualify as a breakout, still needing to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close.