Bigger Picture

[Link to Last Week”s Universe]

Last week”s price action was key for several individual stocks, as we discuss during the Livedesk sessions. For the sector generally, it was mostly unremarkable. The 4-week trends didn”t deteriorate at more than a negligible pace. Three stocks did improve — from down to flat, from flat to up, and from down to up — but each was a sub-penny. Two higher priced stocks changed trend direction to down. None of which is to say there weren”t many new lows for the week, but almost no fresh highs.

So, what”s new… Ukraine-Russia headlines derailing a rally? No, that”s not new. But this one has butted heads with expiration. And despite trying to probe fresh highs at the time news hit, the opening pattern had already signaled its resistance was likelier to hold. A plunge ensued.

The perfect storm is even more bearish considering that yesterday”s rally fulfilled my target for the week-old corrective rally — the intraday high was only 2 ticks higher. (Yesterday”s pre-open comments pointed out its nearing proximity, and last night”s Livedesk Unlimited detailed the chart pattern.) If the week-old correction has ended, then by definition the market is on its way to lower lows.

Recovering to close today back above yesterday”s high would make today”s drop as irrelevant as last week”s plunge in reaction to another Ukraine-Russia headline. Indeed, a bounce is now underway. I”ll update on that effort later this afternoon. Meanwhile, here are my stock comments from this morning”s previous thread:

VPCO — The next lower support is 2.93, which was tested yesterday. Unfortunately, not closing that same day back above 3.26 now makes a recovery depend upon recovering 3.47. Not triggering a recovery today would raise the level to 3.87 Monday. Extending the decline would next encounter support at 2.39.

TRTC — I think my last comment on TRTC was with respect to its attack on .30… The target is sub-30 cents, so the bounce is considered premature, sponsored by impatient buyers. Its optimism is bearish from a contrarian perspective. So much optimism coming so close to the target would then suggest that the target won”t be the low. That expectation is diminished gradually by closing above .37 and then .395.

TAUG — We can”t actually consider today”s .0309 opening print as if yesterday”s close held .031, which was needed to maintain potential to .038. But so long as .031 holds as support this morning, we can still give the recovery a benefit of the doubt.

CNAB — Fell to the brink this week, momentarily piercing 0.897 support yesterday morning and snapping back up to 1.46. Its reaction down into the close held 1.05, and that”s all been retraced this morning. Closing above 1.46 today would signal a bottom forming.

VAPE — Bouncing off of its 2.65 pullback limit again, on healthy opening volume, forming an Ascending Triangle that would trigger above 2.81.

CNAB — Back to unchanged. The trigger is a close above yesterday”s high, no lower.

Russia-Ukraine headlines have triggered a deep steep drop that is threatening to enter the noon hour in negative territory. That”s a problem for the rally on any day when the morning probed fresh trend highs. That problem is exacerbated by this being expiration, which is difficult to reverse morning trends.

GWPH — Still hasn”t closed above the 90 area to confirm 117 is in-play. There”s a band of support at 84.40-87.00 that should meanwhile hold if fresh lows are going to be avoided… Q: “Rod, I have yesterday”s close at 90.36. When you say “close above 90″ does that = closing >90.99? Can you give a brief clarification pls?” .A: The last test of the 90 area off of 80.20 probed it intraday up to 92. Buying a probe above 90 intraday is a valid long-entry tactic, but the chart doesn”t consider it recovered until also closing above the intraday high of its test.

VAPE — Minimum objective if the Triangle is triggered would be 3.17, then 4.65.

PLNR — That”s a Running Correction since Aug 5. Surging into it is very likely to resolve by surging out of it (i.e. offering little or no time to react). I suggest at the very least having a hard stop just above 4.03 or 4.18. The not-too-rare resolution could still drop back to 3.15. But only as a correction… this is not a bearish pattern.

Thursday”s Livedesk Unlimited covered the following stocks, in the following order, with the following summaries, follow?
BRDT — Should rally into the weekend if new lows are going to be avoided.
TAUG — Attacked its target before getting sidetracked by a big sellers.
VAPE — Still testing its pullback limit, but can”t delay resuming its rally.
SPRWD — Testing resistance on the way to new lows.
NVLX — Probably extending back to its original .215 target and lower.
MCIG — Trying to break lower from a Flag pattern.
ATTBF — Still influenced by the top”s Head & Shoulders pattern.
GWPH — Testing the 90 area, and breaking higher would target 117.
ERBB — Last week”s high-volume upleg should be ready to extend.
AGTK — Nice recovery into Thursday”s close, but it must be extended Friday.
INTC — Still consolidating earnings reaction.
KO — Not a very attractive trading candidate after this recent bounce.
INSY — Touching 31.90 pullback limit should snap back into rally mode.
TKMR — Thursday should be last day of correction if the rally intends to resume.
NLNK — Starting to get a higher-profile, pullbacks need to hold 25.30.

And just where did you think you were going? We”re still on for our post-close weekly Livedesk Unlimited. Oh, you were going to freshen up before it starts. That”s fine. See you at 4:30 ET…
http://marketfy.com/product/marijuana-stock-technical-trade-alerts/livedesk/

REMINDER: Today”s post-close Livedesk Unlimited begins at 4:30 ET. You can access it from the sidebar, or wait for my last-minute reminder that will contain the link. Meanwhile, here”s a compendium of my stock observations from this morning”s previous thread:

GWPH — We reviewed the bullish pattern during yesterday”s Livedesk, and it has been gaining traction. The decline”s 80.20 target held a retest to close back above the 84 area resistance. Closing above the 90 area at this stage would put into play new highs targeting 117

TAUG — As summarized from yesterday”s Livedesk, “Back above .-28 should surge noticeably if yesterday”s big bounce has legs,” this morning”s surge is attacking .036, with potential to .038 so long as .034 now holds as support.

BRDT — Reacting up sharply this morning from testing .265, which must not only hold, but also produce a close above .295 to avoid reversing to the lows.

TRTC — Came close to fulfilling its minimum objective of trading sub-30 cents. Then bounced. That bounce means its sponsorship remains too optimistic for a durable bottom to yet form.

GPRO — Failing to hold 37.95 support would target 32.40. Back above 40.50 would indicate a bigger bounce underway, e.g. 44.80.

NLNK — I”ve drawn attention to the TKMR pullback (which needs to end today), and another Ebola vaccine has gotten a higher profile. Closing today above 27.75 would be likely to follow-through tomorrow on today”s surge. There is meanwhile room for a pullback to 24.75 before suggesting a reversal down is underway.

VRNS — While the first downleg certainly slid relentlessly, its reaction formed more of a consolidation, and less of a rally attempt. That rally attempt”s peak is what would normally form the rest of the Triangle”s downtrending resistance. This pattern just looks like trending, with one downleg back to the lows, and now its consolidation resolving in a new downleg. The consolidation”s measurements are probably more informative to the next support. That”s either here around 19.05, or lower at 16.60.