Bigger Picture

Meet me in Livedesk at 10:45 ET to review opening price action in the broader market and among any stocks you request. We”ll also revisit last week”s focus on Precious Metals and Miners.
http://marketfy.com/product/marijuana-stock-technical-trade-alerts/livedesk/

In case you missed it in the last thread, here”s the post-open market action observation:
The market has only rallied since its opening print. A brief pullback has now been retraced to fresh post-open highs. This is testing the upper-end of the consolidation that followed yesterday”s Russia-Ukraine reaction. So, the action is in-line with the near-term bullish premise I describe above. Even the most bullish scenario wouldn”t necessarily rally uninterrupted, but this should otherwise not interfere with speculative activity.

Overnight action in index futures isn”t being any kinder to the market than before yesterday”s open. That could be good news, for two reasons. First, yesterday”s open didn”t extend, and price had only ranged around the opening print before the Russian-Ukraine headline triggered a plunge. Second the plunge is a reaction to a different headline, poor economic news in Europe — that discounts one more negative factor, and doesn”t suggest the Russia-Ukraine headline is gaining traction.

It”s the same drill as yesterday, watching for the first hour to extend the decline if the decline intends to extend today. Yesterday was only forced to extend. Meanwhile, recall from this week”s The Universe that the percentages of uptrending and downtrending MJ stocks each had never been greater since tracking them. They remain vulnerable to any factors that inhibit risk-taking. By the same token, they”re vulnerable to rallying if the broader market were to begin retracing its recent decline.

I”ll add post-open observations to this thread in the Activity Feed, and encourage you to do the same. Then join me at 10:45 ET for today”s Livedesk, which I”ll remind before it starts.

Enjoy!

Russian troops amassing on the Ukraine border has sent the market back down to Friday”s lows. There”s no reason to expect it to hold again, not without first being probed, and potentially by a lot.

Speculative stocks can return from dips caused by the passing threat of a market downturn. But the threat of the market to remain under pressure for multiple sessions can drive away buyers until prices discount that risk. That means lower prices, or at least returns to recent support.

I”m not bullish. I don”t think the r ecent decline”s intent is to form a more durable bottom or to launch a new rally leg. Not from these levels. But drops triggered by non-financial events can mark near-term lows. And at the risk of being too patient, recovering from one more fresh low today could be bullish in the near-term. Bouncing prematurely would be suspicious.

Following are some of this morning”s stock comments:
AGTK — Opening surge through .24 attacked .25, now requiring that today trend up to fresh highs to avoid being the peak of a corrective bounce.
GBLX — Yesterday”s late dip is being retraced somewhat, but still suggesting the 1.08 pullback target is in-play.
VAPE — Already testing its 2.87 target, requiring pullbacks now to hold 2.68 as support to maintain the rally, next targeting 3.17.
ATTBF — Pretty sure that”s a bad print at .36, and would assume today”s low is .46. In any case, closing under .47 would next target .41… and .47 support has been greatly chipped away recently.
ENRT — Bounced about as much as possible without recovering the .14 buy signal. And “despite” today”s press release announcing their intent to consider doing something in an exciting area (more of a tout than a milestone or corporate event), a plunge to fresh lows is attacking .10. There won”t be a buy signal for this pattern for quite awhile.
AGTK — Still probing back above .24. At this stage, I don”t want to see .23 touched, and would prefer the open”s surge to be enough for attracting new buyers.
TRTC — sub-.30 (target in-play)

About last night… An overnight decline has retraced more than half of yesterday”s 150-point Dow rally from the morning”s low to the afternoon”s high. Another buying opportunity? Or, proof that yesterday”s rally was wrong-headed. Can it be both? Yes, but not at the same time…

Be cautious on giving a pre-open or post-open bounce much credibility — at least, not until it has held above its opening print through the first hour. That could be a major vote of confidence that yesterday”s recovery will resume. Otherwise, there remains vulnerability to resuming last week”s decline, even if only to retest last week”s lows.

I”ll add post-open comments to this thread in the Activity Feed, and encourage you to do the same.

Unable to join us for today”s Livedesk? You can view its half-hour recording at the following link. Below there is a list and brief summaries of stocks mentioned, in order. We also discussed the broader market after reviewing individual stocks…
http://new.livestream.com/accounts/7617211/events/2865745

ERBB — Next opportunity for a bottom would be “Falling Knife” setup at .0106
TAUG — High-volume close above .038 would be compelling.
FSPM — Retest of recent low is not a bottom.
FITX — Close above Friday”s high would confirm .085 in-play.
ATTBF — Chipping away further at .47 support.
AGTK — Can”t delay fresh high close above .24 on volume.
TURV — Rally would be signaled above 1.26-1.31.
GWPH — Tested 82.25 support often enough to suggest it will break lower to test ~75 area.
ENRT — Needs volume to confirm today”s fresh highs, and needs close above .14 to signal rally underway.
GBLX — Died on the vine around 1.25, making dip more useful.
TRTC — Not yet extending down from closing under .403 doesn”t make a recovery any likelier.
STEV — Above .106 would signal rally has resumed.
SPRWD — .40 recovery would suggest pullback has ended, above .45 would signal rally underway.
VAPE — Pullbacks holding 2.37 have potential for extending the rally to 2.87 or higher.
XXII — Trying to hold 2.35 support.
MINE — Breakout today and confirmation tomorrow on expanding volume would trigger at least a brief run-up.