Bigger Picture

Welcome to Open”s Interest for Tuesday

Volume is still a sore subject in the marijuana sector. It”s not exactly a hot topic elsewhere in the market. GWPH will report earnings Wednesday, presumably from the UK, so before the open. The sessions before earnings can trade misleadingly, as the market anticipates good or bad news. GWPH is hovering at its highs in anticipation of a a good report. That”s not a given, since Biotechs generally had a bad quarter. But GWPH has an edge, so although I want to participate in a healthy correction that the pattern needs, I won”t short it unless it closes under relevant support

Pullback Limit

(breakouts and bounces that have retraced 61.8%…

these situations are often make, or break)

VPOR .114 pullback ||.13 resistance || .109 stop || .195/.25 target

Bottom Fish

(basing after extended decline — not really a “trade”)

(breakdown unconfirmed a 2nd day — only buy strength)

ATTBF .95 pullback || 1.07 resistance || .91 stop || 1.38 and 1.68 targets
moved from Rocket Launch

IGRW .036 pullback || .055 resistance || .029 stop || .08 target
spiked up at Monday”s close

SING no pullback || .025 resistance || .016 stop || .045 target

Third-day Surge

(2-day surge to fresh highs at risk of peaking — don”t chase higher)

I wish!

Not a Charm

(third test of retested low — lower lows coming?)

(-
ZDPY) no pullback || 4.65 resistance || 6.05 stop || 2.25 target

Falling Knife

(trying to catch the reaction to a steep drop — ouch)

We”ll pull these from the “Monitoring” section below.

Rocket Launch
(sudden explosive interest that gains traction)

STEV .158 pullback || .185 resistance || .145 stop || .21 and .25 targets
adjusted parameters higher

Monitoring
(observations of other stocks of interest)

EDXC, ENRT these are becoming “Not A Charm” candidates.

TAUG .054 resistance || .048 stop (can”t buy weakness).

TRTC knife-catch candidate at or under .44 (really want to like this).

MCIG under .455 would target .36-.40 (unless .55 recovers soon).

Livedesk at 11:15am ET. I”ll answer any remaining questions for me in the Open”s Interest thread, and then migrate to this one going forward. Step-by-step instructions can be found on page 322 of the supplement to last year”s revised product guide update that doesn”t actually exist.
http://marketfy.com/product/marijuana-stock-technical-trade-alerts/livedesk/1129/
or follow the link on site”s left sidebar.

Welcome to Open”s Interest for Monday

True story… At the end of my conversation with a guy at the gym Saturday, he said, “Have a happy holiday.” I have no idea which holiday he meant. This was Saturday, May 2. Was he still celebrating May Day? Is he that gung-ho for Cinco de Mayo? Mother”s Day is still a week away. Then it occurred to me

The three-week anniversary of my bottom call is approaching. It”s not actually a holiday. Rather, the marijuana sector”s volume has been “on holiday.” I”m sure that”s what he meant, some sort of a back-handed compliment. 

But he”s right. GWPH continues to suck up all the oxygen in the room. The number of new highs in the sector can be counted on one hand. The daily list of relative new lows is larger, and constant, albeit much smaller than into April”s lows. Evaporating volume has been a mixed blessing that at first welcome for reflecting fewer sellers, and now we criticize for reflecting fewer buyers.

Now being three weeks past the possible bottom, some of bounces have been corrected by attacking the lows, and some bounces have been reversed to new lows. Both of which were expected as the bottom continued forming. This pattern”s measurements suggest that volume begin expanding during its third week, and that its fourth week will resume trending — the only question being in which direction.

Pullback Limit

(breakouts and bounces that have retraced 61.8%…

these situations are often make, or break)

VPOR .114 pullback ||.13 resistance || .109 stop || .195/.25 target
   raised all parameters after Friday”s low held its .103 pullback

Bottom Fish

(basing after extended decline — not really a “trade”)

(breakdown unconfirmed a 2nd day — only buy strength)

SING no pullback || .025 resistance || .016 stop || .045 target
     lowered the resistance trigger and target

Third-day Surge

(2-day surge to fresh highs at risk of peaking — don”t chase higher)

Not a Charm

(third test of retested low — lower lows coming?)

(-
ZDPY) no pullback || 4.65 resistance || 6.05 stop || 2.25 target
    Initiated at 6, met its target on Friday

Falling Knife

(trying to catch the reaction to a steep drop — ouch)

none

Rocket Launch

(sudden explosive interest that gains traction)

ATTBF .95 pullback || 1.07 resistance || .91 stop || 1.38 and 1.68 targets
    raised stop

STEV .145 pullback || .165 resistance || .135 stop || .21 and .25 targets
     we”ve attracted company

Monitoring
(observations of other stocks of interest)

EDXC, ENRT candidates for selling partial or all from the portfolio.

TAUG .054 resistance || .48 stop (can”t buy weakness).

TRTC knife-catch candidate at or under .44 (really want to like this).

MCIG under .455 would target .36-.40 (unless .55 recovers soon).

[NOTE: I will be on a plane Wednesday morning. My first post might not be made until noon ET.] 

Is it time for a bounce? It”s past time, right? Now, we”re talking only about a bounce, not a bottom. And not necessarily sector-wide. Finally, this is from my vantage point the night before. Much can happen this morning that I won”t see (see note above).

Subscribers that read the daily missives know that recent price action has been suggesting a bottom may be nearing. In terms of time, but not in price. At least, not until now.

In the Livedesk room Tuesday (recording linked from the site”s sidebar) I showed examples of my Up/Down Crash setup, and there is also news of a marijuana CEO buying more of his own company”s stock. Assuming no bad news tomorrow open, the following represents parameters on some of our stock coverage:

[NOTE: I will be unable to trigger any trade alerts due to

I would consider buying initial strength, and holding if resistance is broken.

ATTBF above .86 has potential to 1.72

BRDT > .401, targeting .53 and .79

EDXC > .17 would target .24

ENRT > .33-.36 would target .699

ERBB  above .052 would target .07

FITX If buying early, needs a close above .085

GWPH above 48.25 would target 58.50 and 68

HPCS  .0333 would target new highs above .06

MCIG Close above .59 would target .80

PMCM Back above .0835 would target .0048

SPLI. Above.085 would target .31

STEV above .23 would target .49

TAUG > .054 would target .082

TRTC > .632 stp < .522

Good luck… Also, don”t forget that I will be on a plane Wednesday morning.

Today”s one thing is… Normalcy?

Warren Harding campaigned for President after WWI on the promise of returning to normalcy. Of course, they didn”t call it “WWI” back then. They didn”t know that WWII was ever coming. They didn”t dare think it.

Marijuana sector investors can think of nothing else.

Not to trivialize the Great War (too soon?), but marijuana sector investors have a right to make the comparison. And then some. World? In fact, no corner of the marijuana stock universe was safe from the horrors and madness of March-April ”14. 

Now the sector seems to have settled in. At least, to the best of its abilities. It is a fragile peace, and a second war on the sector could begin at anytime. Mid-April price action gives reason for hope. Actually, it gives a lot of reasons. And the past 1-2 weeks gave several new reasons. 

I won”t hash out those reasons again here, that”s not the point of this missive. Rather, I want to question whether normalcy is really what we want.

Normal isn”t so many issues in a single sector tripling and quadrupling within weeks-months. Normal isn”t rallying through the summer while most other stock sectors get the doldrums. Who wants normalcy. Oh, and that aching feeling that WWII is about to be launched on this sector? Quite the opposite was being considered at the top.

Marijuana stocks don”t need normalcy. A little hesitation for a few weeks is fine, but let”s be more concerned with that lasting too long, than with whether it has even arrived.

Enjoy!