Bigger Picture
Filter THIS! Already?
Today”s one thing is… Already?
Marijuana stocks have enjoyed a good couple of days. Not all of them, and not all of them on both days. Some of the two sessions” bigger performers were only bigger performers on Wednesday, and big underperformers before that.
SPLI had dropped about 75% from its high two weeks earlier, and it rallied about 70% from Tuesday”s low.
HEMP had dropped 80% from its high two months earlier, and part of that was contributed by Tuesday”s decline to new lows. It rallied 33% on Wednesday, which is up 55% from Tuesday”s low.
REDG was also down about 80% in a week through Tuesday”s low. Wednesday”s high doubled from Tuesday”s low. Close-to-close was up 40%.
Granted, each of these examples had risen much more than they dropped. In fact, each drop tested a Fibonacci retracement that would qualify as a bottom — if those lows were to hold a retest.
That”s kind of the problem. It”s not a bad problem to have, but many of the sector”s stocks require a retest of this week”s lows. And the volume accompanying many of their bounces this week was down from levels accompanying the drop.
The real problem is that the SPLIs, the HEMPs, and the REDGs of our sector rallied so sharply. Already. That shouldn”t be the case at the bottom. Not that their lows” retests should fail, but their actual recoveries should lag. Instead, very short-term buyers are already buying. Many have already started selling.
This behavior is inevitable. Getting it out of the way sooner rather than later can be healthy. Meanwhile, the outsized outperformance of such underperformers suggests that the first bounce is much nearer to ending. At least, that the opportunity to retest recent lows, for the market to validate, to build better bases — that opportunity is getting much closer. Already.
| Filter THIS! …is a pre-open missive that tells you one thing, the most important thing, if you had to filter your view of today”s marijuana stocks price action through just one thing — okay, sometimes two — what would that one thing be? |
Need to Know Thu Apr 10 2014
Great session with the charts, thank you to all that attended. If you did not, then please find time to watch at least the first 10-15 minutes. I walk through a single stock”s parameters from the daily Open”s Interest to explain how (and how not) to apply that to your decisions.
We do that with MCIG and several others. Please review that much of the video, and then send me any suggestions for making that information more useful to you.
I am 80% sure that we”ll be reviewing live charts post-open in the morning, starting Thursday (tomorrow). I am 100% sure that we”ll have it in place by Friday. That day or the next, I will resume managing the portfolio. Meanwhile, of course, ask me for any input intraday.
Click here for today”s video, or follow the Livedesk link in the left sidebar to view the past couple of recordings.
Enjoy!
How about a 20-minute chart
How about a 20-minute chart review at 4:40pm ET? Of course, that means 30 minutes. But seriously, no longer than 45 minutes. Listen, I”ll be happy just to make the 4:40. [Follow the Livedesk link on the site”s left sidebar.]
Do you need input to
Do you need input to make a decision before today”s close? Let”s talk about it! Go to this post”s thread on the Activity Feed, tell me the stock AND your specific question about it.
Time-permitting, I”ll answer sole symbols and general questions. I might also direct you to scroll down through earlier threads if something recent was posted earlier on the Activity Feed (you should be doing this anyway).
We”ll cover what we can for 20 minutes from 3:15-3:35. Ready, set… Go!
P.S. Look for another alert at about 4:30 announcing another chart review. Not of the entire universe, but just the Open”s Interest coverage from this morning, and several others that have come into view today.
Open’s Interest… This morning’s watch list.
[Note: “Filter THIS!” will not be published today…]
Following are 15 stocks whose price action through Tuesday”s close has increased the potential for fulfilling a particular outcome. Ahhh, if only it were that simple. Notice that each includes support and sometimes resistance. Watch price action (and volume) upon either one being attacked or pierced. Be critical, communicate with others (I”ll be active in this post”s thread), and refer constantly to the following rules:
Low volume on dips to support, high-volume on strength.
Consider exiting intraday support test doesn”t recover by the close.
Reassess a target/resistance test that holds the close.
BRDT key-reversal follow-through targeting .62 / .70
—– .45 support
—– .35 maximum pullback allowed
CBGI corrective bounce .24 / .33
—– .13 support
—– .11 maximum pullback allowed
EAPH pivot-reversal follow-through targeting .065-.07
—– .035-.036 support
—– .033 maximum pullback allowed
EDXC key-reversal follow-through targeting .032-.-35
—– .22 support
—– .21 maximum pullback allowed
FRTD relative strength
—– .065 resistance
—– .049 maximum pullback allowed
FSPM bounce potential targeting 6.00
—– 4.95 resistance
—– 4.30 maximum pullback allowed
HPCS cup & handle targeting .10 and .165
—– .043 and .056 resistance
—– .029 maximum pullback allowed
MCIG breakout potential targeting .99
—– .80 resistance
—– .63 support
—– .60 maximum pullback allowed
MINE key-reversal follow-through targeting .029
—– .024 resistance
—– .015 maximum pullback allowed
MWIP head & shoulders fulfilled, recovery targeting .56
—– .33 support
—– .33 maximum pullback allowed
NVLX attraction back to .45 close, and above .50
—– .39 resistance
—– .35 support
SKTO gap up could run higher intraday
—– .0225 resistance
—– .015 maximum pullback allowed
STEV correction ended, resume breakout attemp targeting .42
—– .27 support resistance
TRTC huge (too huge?) key-reversal follow-through
—– .98 resistance
—– .80 support
—– .70 maximum pullback allowed
UTRM breakout targeting .015
—– .01 resistance
—– .0073 maximum pullback allowed
Monitoring these, and will revisit intraday:
ATTBF waiting for another shoe to drop
CBIS key-reversal follow-through targeting .15-.16
—– pass, not enough reward for the risk
—– monitor for low”s retest to…
—– .085 maximum pullback allowed
ENRT wanting to buy a dip, after assessing it
ERBB .075-.076 eventual objective
FITX .05-.058 support
—– must close above .063/.0644 resistance
LATF stalking a breakout targetin .016 and higher
—– .0113 resistance
—– no maximum pullback yet
MDRM false break down
—– .145 support, must close back above .0155
—– .10 maximum pullback allowed
PHOT low-volume key-reversal
—– .57 resistance
—– .435 support
PMCM breakout triggered above .005
TAUG borderline potential that correction ended
—– .085 resistance
—– .06 maximum pullback allowed