Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday extended to test the upper-end of the longstanding 1.1395-1.1430 target, which corrects August’s Island pattern. Extending lower to close under 1.1370 would signal a complete retracement of the Island, whether to form a Double Bottom or to extend the already protracted downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging into Wednesday’s open probed back under 1235.00 through the morning. Not with any velocity that would add credibility to reversing momentum down. But any initial weakness Thursday would get a benefit of the doubt for trending down intraday. By the same token, rejecting Wednesday’s reversal attempt by closing back above 1243.00 would next target 1253.00-1256.00 and 1277.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The surge back up to 14.80 wasn’t extended Wednesday, keeping alive its potential for resolving up to 15.15, unless Thursday opens weaker. A downleg must still break support at 14.60.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having touched 138-04 overnight, recovering Wednesday to probe back above the 138-18 buy signal is more credible for launching the corrective bounce targeting at least 139-26, if not also 1 point higher.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing ahead of Wednesday’s EIA report had tested the 67.25 bounce limit, and started reacting down. Its knee-jerk reaction was muted, but eventually began firming to fresh highs above the 67.25 buy signal.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce was likely only noise so Wednesday’s gap up back to Tuesday’s high failed to extend higher. The inside day could produce a blip-up Thursday, perhaps a temporary knee-jerk reaction to EIA, but resolving down remains likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s fresh low intraday under 1.1500 was still above the fresh low overnight under 1.1490. And the session bounced back into negative territory, although never back above Monday’s highs. The 1.1395-1.1430 objective remains intact.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reversing down from testing the lower-end of the 1236.00-1241.00 bounce target had repeatedly held 1222.50. Surging overnight tested the target’s upper-end to 1243.00 before dipping back down to 1236.00. Closing under 1236.00 would reverse the trend back down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing 14.60 support kept alive potential for another bounce, or simply to retest last week’s test of 14.80. Tuesday’s gap up there ranged flat-to-lower intraday, still needing to close under 14.60 to reverse the trend back down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up to the 138-18 buy signal extended up to 139-07 as stocks continued sliding. That was retraced back down to the open’s gap as the stock slide began reversing. Closing AT the relevant level instead of below or above it keeps the door open to resolving either way. Filling the gap first back down to Monday’s close below would be more bullish for forming a bottom.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 73.90 sell signal extended even deeper during Tuesday’s $3 drop to 65.75. Reversing up immediately wouldn’t be credible, and bounces are meanwhile likely to hold a test of 67.25 as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to 3.15 extended another dime to attack 3.24 and nearly fill the gap back up to Friday’s close, which is meanwhile resistance, and likely to push back down..

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Slightly higher highs Sunday night didn’t prevent gapping down Monday and extending lower intraday to attack Wednesday’s low. Stopping optimistically short of touching the prior low suggests that a lower low will be that much more substantial to compensate for the ineffectual optimism.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down slightly Monday and piercing Thursday’s low ran into an outstanding gap that held intraday, but is likely to almost break sharply lower on any fresh low at Tuesday’s open.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting Thursday’s lows and also 14.60 uptrending support at Monday’s open avoided breaking lower, but didn’t reject the test, keeping alive the attraction to a break lower.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s inside day was also “ineffectual pessimism,” but neither was rejected without Monday reversing up, and instead only remaining within Thursday’s range.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s Shallow narrow ranging didn’t exploit the possible bottoming forming after Friday avoided extending Thursday’s fresh low. A break higher would be credible for extending, but shouldn’t be positioned prematurely, as the pattern remains vulnerable to extending down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down was largely retraced Monday, before extending down much more decisively to confirm Thursday’s break to fresh lows.