Saturday Review

Last week’s volatility wasn’t isolated to intraday action, as it included at least two sizable overnight plunges. The same could be said for the drop coming out of January’s highs. One difference is that last week’s volatility all developed within an established range, while the previous occasion trended down. At first, the difference is surprising, especially having experienced it first hand. But then it is glaring — and it is glaringly different from the tariff war headlines and mainstream media concerns.

Volatile trending and volatile ranging. Does the difference between them mean different resolutions? Not necessarily. Those characteristics really speak more to timing and paths, and less to ultimate direction. Similar to trending having paused, traders’ curiosity at this week’s Facebook vs. Congress hearings could put volatility on pause, too. In this weekend’s Saturday Review, we discuss the market’s possible paths and their likely resolutions, detailing the elements that suggest either.

Bitcoin: We didn’t get to this chart, which I think is timely. My $6,600 support has been thoroughly tested. One potential consolidation it supported had broken yesterday to probe a slightly lower low. Now that break is being retraced back up to the consolidation’s $6.900 upper-end. More important, the retracement was done by surging, symmetrical to the break lower. So long as fresh lows are avoided, this pattern suggests that a bottom is forming, at least for a sizable correction back up to $8,400.

Following are three videos I produced showing specific setups that had guided us in anticipating a specific resolution this week. (Originally published in the Roadmap blog):
– Reaction limit examples –
– Noon hour reaction limit head-fake –
– Overnight pattern (Triangle false break) into intraday –

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WB, BIDU, MU, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, BA, CAT, FB, ARNA

transcript

—————– (04/07/2018 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
—————– (04/07/2018 09:33) —————–
Bill G: good
—————– (04/07/2018 10:00) —————–
ljr: stocks: WB, BIDU, Nvda, TSLA. I’ll watch recording. thx
—————– (04/07/2018 10:02) —————–
David B: MU,AMZN
—————– (04/07/2018 10:18) —————–
David B: BA,CAT
—————– (04/07/2018 10:39) —————–
ljr: question about timing Windows:

ljr:    breaks higher or lower

David B: Thanks

ljr: during them are valid?

ljr: one more sentance

ljr: but what about tries outside of those windows

ljr: sorry typing on a phone

ljr: ie a break at 11:15-12

ljr: ah. mIntaine d at end of window.

ljr: got it

ljr: thx

Bill G: Thanks

Expiration came and went with barely a whimper. Inside Days aren’t unusual, but their rare for expirations. Not just an Inside Day, but the same range that began forming Wednesday afternoon, either from complacency or anxiousness. So, how does that affect the up into next week’s FOMC policy statement, with what might be the year’s first rate hike? Will the break back under 2758-2770 finally be exploited, or try to be exploited by then? Will 2813 and higher be put back into play? Can the 1987-style crash analog re-sync?

These are some of the questions and topics discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Several of the week’s interesting setups and influences are also described, along with specific likelihoods and strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning’s possible opens.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MU, NKE, PACB, ETP, AMD, CY, FDX, CARA, ARNA, AMD, CY, CVGW, AXGN, WIX, AGN

—————– (03/17/2018 09:32) —————–
jp: gm

David B: Good Morning

Bill G: gm
—————– (03/17/2018 09:34) —————–
ljr ipad: q: do u see 2018 as being in a wide range (in general)…different than 2017 grind up
—————– (03/17/2018 09:57) —————–
Bill G: fwiw, I’ve been keeping a Demark count that had the first phase (setup) completed on the low Feb 9th. The setup phase( 13 closes less then the low two days earlier) currentlly 8 completed requiring 5 more.
—————– (03/17/2018 09:59) —————–
ljr ipad: we barely filled the gap on mar 9…optimism?
—————– (03/17/2018 10:01) —————–
ljr ipad: actually looks filled from 9 min chart
—————– (03/17/2018 10:05) —————–
ljr ipad: stocks: Earnings this week: MU, NKE, FDX

ljr ipad: (positions of strength/weakness?)

Bill G: Should be countdown phase

Ryan 2: PACB, ETP and CARA
—————– (03/17/2018 10:11) —————–
ljr ipad: mu. Thursday

ljr ipad: tues I think

ljr ipad: thurs for nke

ljr ipad: fdx earnings tues

David B: AMD,CY
—————– (03/17/2018 10:21) —————–
ljr ipad: CVGW, new ath

ljr ipad: (stop and upside levels)

Ryan 2: thanks
—————– (03/17/2018 10:25) —————–
ljr ipad: AXGN new ath. stop or upside objectives. thx
—————– (03/17/2018 10:36) —————–
ljr ipad: if you have time: WIX, AGN (no positions)
—————– (03/17/2018 10:47) —————–
ljr ipad: thx for today

David B: Thanks

Bill G: have a good one