Saturday Review

It’s not so much that this week’s action was complicated. But it was somewhat complex in all of its features that relate to my methodology. New high, premature passively bearish WedEX, actively bearish WedEX, trend change, correction… and more. So, this weekend’s Saturday Review did spend almost 45 minutes describing those predictive features. Knowledge, sorry!

But in the end — that is, in the end of the market analysis — we had identified the likeliest scenarios for Sunday night and Monday’s open. Their likeliest resolutions, and as important, the consequences of price action behaving differently. We’re fully prepared to consider trades for the coming week. And also familiar with the relevant price points and patterns to monitor.

In the actual end — the end of the recording — we weren’t so prepared. Internet connectivity was inexplicably lost, as I was in my final sentence of instant chart analysis of the final stock that was requested to review. Inexplicable, because it was not an outage and a reboot cured it. Anyway, that was up to the 56-minute mark, which I hope you find more interesting than the subsequent 7 minutes of dead air.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, FB, CMG, AMD

[transcript unavailable]

This week’s Saturday Review had two main focuses: Friday’s new high close, and the weekend’s French election. The new high close on a Friday has implications, especially considering its proximity to the next higher objective(s) put into play at 2405 and 2411 by having closed recently above 2375. The election’s relevance is the part it played in Friday’s new high close, and that it won’t play any part after Monday’s open. There’s more…

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
DDD, BREW, WIX, SHOP, AAPL, NFLX, AMZN

good morning and welcome it’s Saturday time for the Saturday review first one of my very interesting very interesting way to get the month started I don’t know if you’re ending Spring or starting summer but the ongoing rally has resumed or the highest being retested to form a more durable top in any case several factors are playing out that we’ve been discussing and one that we also been discussing that seems to be left behind the factors playing out or that this last week or if not this week currently ending but the week prior started with huge reaction to favorable election results in France favorable to The Establishment favorable to the calm and steady market theory the whole requirement or likelihood of eventually retesting the the moment okay so the retest of Prior has three tests ever won would have been negative reaction to fomc minutes month ago now broken the next day confirming basically a break out it’s not really optimal Breakout war of downtrending resistance then of any multi-session range simply following through on the third day of Wednesday and since then really until yesterday Friday caught in a range arrange that ended the same way that prior pull back had ended stopping short of neutralizing Unfinished Business believing it outstanding as you can see it does not have any effect on the pattern itself doesn’t have any effect on the ability of the possibility potential and production you are very productive detour there was no requirement to retest anyways after Thursday morning so which came within three six of Wednesday’s low neutralizing it’s over so there such Wednesday’s low having satisfied some unfinished business below and stopping optimistically short of the 2375 level which hasn’t actually been touched intraday but we’re covering it for two consecutive sentences with told us to things number 1 will really one thing that an eventual higher close let’s go on to things really really that they would because that’s a break out not a break out of a pattern of a calculus also that the next higher calculable resistance or objective or traction would be in play and that is calculate 2405 + 2415 but also so those are basically corollaries also what it told us was that this downtrend from artists Pryor High haven’t confirmed the break out or the close above one calculable resistance would put into play by proxy then a complete retest of the entire Town Lake and that 2375 was also room for noise retracement Within basically that closely and closing that much into this double top the fomc house or their fancy minute I the by proxy so long as that was confirm the following session that again by proxy it would necessitate or obligate a complete replacement of the trim line on which that lay anyway where there that is been fulfilled and now we’re in the process of for the other for the initial objective putting to play 2375 a test of 2405 2415 that’s the next objective that looks like 2400 was the high 2400 area code 401 in fact at the time which was March did print that phases June the witch was not the front month but is now9725 9725 that’s the high print that I closed that day was 2391 it’s not been met or exceeded until yesterday and yesterday’s clothes and close equated to 96 9575 above 2391 this is a new high close on a Friday new trend High closes not necessarily new all-time highs as in this case just a new trend I close on a Friday doesn’t happen by accident it’s a reflection of where sentiments was looking forward as far as not the I expressed sentiment or verbally Express sentiment the monetarily expressed sentiment were people putting the money you can get excessive optimism and this certainly looks like it’s on its way there but when it’s so optimistic and so wide reaching that I can enforce a close above a previously relevant level previous relevant level then we may be very close to reversing down we may be very close to reversing down sharply Chalet in any case that much buying pressure doesn’t happen without there being at least one more hour plus maybe a hundred her clothes but if immediately price for Two Rivers down next week whatever happens in the morning extend higher and then reversed and GAP up and rivers down gap down extend higher to Fresh Hi and then reversed and whatever happens Monday however it might start if there is an immediate reversal down by the end of the day and a new High clothes doesn’t follow Fridays I close will know one thing will know that I knew how close is coming and knowing that a new high close is coming if immediately the mark over to reverse down and again regardless of what it doesn´t today it may prove higher internet talking about on a closing basis if we don’t get a higher close on Monday instead the market pulls back however long it might pull back for days weeks neither one would be an ordinary however long it might pull back for if we do get an immediate pull back we’ll know the context is new High clothes coming what a pulled back stop at 94 would it stop at 91 a pullback could extend down to 2388 just normally that’s just 10 points 11 points off of yesterday’s post close close heaters close you got up to 2399 we could dip – 2388 usually is testing lower price we couldn’t prove it he’s already been used as we discussed yesterday afternoon there’s no returning to 86th and Market 8886 and recovers before thewithout extending hired to get that fresh High clothes required fresh my clothes out of the way any immediate any Interruption to that it’s going to be all about backing and filling trapping shorts refueling logs to make 2415 melt away if it’s me instead extending hire list rent throwing in some Court events like Sunday there’s another election Poetic Justice was the same the same impetus or catalyst the same Catalyst that started this ball rolling that is French election results that narrowed it down to two candidates and anticipation being as we got into The Weeknd hour to Patient being that Friday would reflect the into the holes that’s that say or not to suggest that right say that the establishment candidate will win and that’s what the market want so that’s what Market participants want I should say the market establishment the populist like Trump and not a populist moves like speaking of which this looks like there was also similar price higher Joe price higher into the vote literally to the last minute little bit of correction before that get those players off the stage breakouts along the way and not to new Highs but that’s not really literally post close has wasn’t because of that snowball as it’s quite likely that price of 2016 it’s quite likely that was possible andthere’s that there’s not going to be a surprise in the results it’s still entirely possible and I think likely that a lot of that sentiment is already gotten to price a little bit of a relief rally would be likely very easily get from 2399 Riva 96 Friday’s cashing closing equivalent very easily get from there to 2405 or even 2415 then the question will be the timing weather that’s maintained through the close to satisfy the upside at which point we can start looking for price to correct remember this started prematurely or whether we get out about 2415 to put into play higher objectives what other scenario to to consider is that everything that I just described as far as an initially favorable reaction to the news does come out or does develop Sunday night Monday morning and you’re up the results will be known if the poles or anywhere near accurate there won’t be any question Orkin testing and your UPS markets will rally and yes which opens on Globex will rally to assuming all else being equal yes can get to 2405 it can get to 2415 it can do that overnight and meanwhile Europe which is initially developing its relief rally suddenly stops extending higher maybe doesn’t have as much of a relief Rally or a rally on the results as the market would like to see because it’s overly invested as it is people struck throwing in the towel this is all before we open over here in the US and by the time us markets open it’s possible yes having been to 2405 or higher has already reverse down a two things can happen in that instance again this is in the event of global markets rally and European markets rallying Monday morning European time Sunday night u.s. time taking is higher Sunday night however much higher and your UPS markets reversing down in tver afternoon the head of their afternoon actually before I open greeting hour open by the back under 2405 + 14 + 15 + or if somewhere along this area had only been that lower rather than hire that we actually open negative negative vs. Fridays cash North there’s a little bit and here this is intentionally angled little bit of a surprise who’s test at the open could still produce a bounce if we’re not actually phone through if you’re already reacting wheat racing on the news or after already having expressed satisfaction with the news and then discovering that they’ve been expressing their satisfaction with the news all along and there’s no more satisfaction to express if sewing pressure has in fact greeted are open Monday back under fries or if the open can’t get back out dips back down and kick it back out about prayer has tuliskan take a lot of room there’s a lot of room to the downside member once we get through if we get through 23 88-86we’re heading back to this unfinished business below unfinished business below defined by gaps gaps propane fryer Lowe’s 2311 would not be out of the realm of possibility and not just really by Monday afternoon maybe not even by Tuesday morning maybe somewhere along the week we are entering that kind of a market we have I believe entered that kind of the market already will we start to see as we did I mean similar environment that we saw in June of 2016 as we see about once every 3 months 3 to 4 months for more than a week pockets of it ahead of that more than a week. Pockets of it following that consisted more than a week. As we come into it as we leave it behind where it entered a there are huge swings not little loose and not isolated to gapping and even in the event of gapping still trending Post open think we’re entering that if not have entered that face and it doesn’t require let alone and Shore trending in a singular direction throughout but often reversing and reversing substantially in both directions internet so if in fact the markets pliability has expanded or increased as I suspected has it doesn’t matter that it is trending in a certain direction what that means is it has a wider range in the more that rubber band is stretched and comes into contact with a brick wall the more substantial the retirement and possibly the more I’m going why does it take a quick look at the other changes so here’s the and we’ve been monitoring these throughout and I have yet to indicate that that big money is getting very defensive or that speculative forever is necessarily slowing down in fact where is S&P 500 actually didn’t probe the prior home till very late and only by very little that’s not the case with and q’s now they’re not so substantially up performing as they had been there’s also a interim correction pattern was just pattern structure there’s an intern correction that is biased upward can meet Lee finishing the ceiling face and then being biased upward that’s not really a correction this is the correction this is accumulation pretty impatient buyers the time that accumulations so it’s accumulation by weekends here’s their reward which is often breed that buying pressure rather than making multiple stages making a correction out of multiple stages there’s a multiple States correction rather than trapping shorts already this pattern is on its way to the Malaysian looking for that inevitable hire her that everything relies on and that buying fresh truly missed just when it’s needed to maintain the breakercenters and they’re not after forming yes to the degree that they were only a slightly higher high that relative to ES at that time and even then not is descript correction the Dell starting to outperform or try to get in gear and Performing remember this low that we talked about on Thursday stopping short bases the es having stop short having some sort of Wednesday’s low in the ES there’s the Dell underperforming still not seeing big money yet more focused on big are blue chip stocks but it hasn’t even answered an accumulative face is still correcting lower lows and highs if it already extends to a friend that’s going to leave it so prepared to maintain it will also make that hire I arrive more aggressively because virus won’t be expended buying pressure will not have been expended not an easy to maintain but for now not seeing the cracks maybe seeing cracks but not seeing them fissure and lose their bouyancy

Consolidating for two days into the weekend didn’t prevent the week’s earlier strength from making it the strongest performance in months. Is this just a pause that refreshes? Is more refreshing needed? How will we know either way?  These questions, and more, are discussed in this week’s Saturday Review…

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
VA, MA, GDXJ, GDX, UA, AMD, XLE, JJG, CMG, VZ

David B: Good Morning
(04/29/2017 09:42)
Mark Glezer: DT – can be bullish
(04/29/2017 09:44)
Mark Glezer: never mind not a DT
(04/29/2017 09:50)
David B: closing below what level would take new highs off the table?
(04/29/2017 09:53)
JP: does below 2378 and maintaining that level as a high set up as an island reversal
(04/29/2017 09:58)
Mark Glezer: gapping up Mon could be shortable if within Fri range?
(04/29/2017 10:05)
David B: V,MA
(04/29/2017 10:13)
David B: UA,AMD
(04/29/2017 10:16)
Mark Glezer: heard a rumor that UA passenger got $140M in a settlement

Mark Glezer: never mind

Mark Glezer: you are right :)

Mark Glezer: my estimate was $10-15M
(04/29/2017 10:20)
Bill G: XLE and JJG Seems like and inflection pt relative to last Aug/Sep lows
(04/29/2017 10:25)
Bill G: I was thinkink a failure would be large in either direction
(04/29/2017 10:26)
David B: CMG,VZ
(04/29/2017 10:28)
Bill G: Huge long position by hedgers in grains
(04/29/2017 10:34)
Mark Glezer: thx much

Bill G: thx

David B: Thanks

so if there’s a number of international exchanges that are going to be closed Monday for made a Mayday being the being an internet being a holiday in many countries and then throughout the week there are several major exchanges Danny Kaye is not open all week or for the entire week so there’s a liquidy issue as much as a participation tissue or more so because with participation issue not a one-sided market and that’s interesting when and where it appears because of the last couple days the Market’s been struggling to to maintain 12 to maintain let alone to resume the uptrend the uptrend that didn’t necessarily appear suddenly but we didn’t know relatively choppy base the last low stopped optimistically short of filling the two week-old Gap open below Toledo context of this rally not only that indication but for me or rejecting that low by gapping up couple of things about the nature of the next step up at cetera we know that this context of this lake is optimistic ugly optimistic deserving of consolidation something that would take the pressure off of the rally and it happened as soon as it means that being a identify any particular action and how it happened to get there is a difference between up and down just confirming the next day minimum of being any other points along the way in fact just confirming and one of those top out of that high it’s possible to form a more durable top create another pull back and eventually resolved up but this leg probably isn’t the leg that Riley’s into an ongoing bull market so that’s not to say that we testing the high let’s just assume for a moment I’m not sure it’s a good assumption to make but let’s assume that this late does get back to the high let’s say this leg does get back to the house which is the objective but I’m try this week let’s say this week it’s back to the high which isn’t necessary regardless of that being the objective even if we were a hundred percent sure that is the next objective that doesn’t mean it gets there this week but let’s say we do just head straight up this week optimism certainly seems to be if not it’s all time best it’s still saying plenty of signs in price action reflecting it slip say we get back to the high this week we’re going to just touch the high and then a durable top forms instantaneously and reversed and probably not when that has touched the room for noise above it is 2405 and probably 2415 that’s bases gym so probably 2415 is touched in the process it’s also possible for that leg to get exponential is probably as much chance of that as for meeting that Pryor High the high this week and if this week does extend hired to that prayer that probably does reflect so much optimism that from a country in perspective it may be doomed to failure but in the interim that’s optimism and can get carried away show another way to look at this to make it seem to make sense of it is that we don’t know when the high comes but presumably just based on the highs and lows the different shifts and optimism and pessimism probably one month to 6 weeks from now we’re here or lower after having been higher so it’s not that were looking for for runaway bull market but once we get our ever high proves Honda one big Canada 2415 the market reacts down and probably not aggressively or at least if it is aggressively reaction down and other words if this Pryor High is Prague aggressively and then reacted to aggressively forming a very similar structure then probably that’s not a durable at that point if we get this kind of reaction down what is this was the same in the same way not in the same way that this is excessive optimism pessimism well it’s good for the goose and gander if this is overly optimistic and so it’s going to run into trouble overly sentimental you cancel each other out so that accepted to excessively and it’s the same shape as it is being tested they will only look for a temporary probably down as may be on a mission it might seem pretty long and drawn-out at the time but probably on a mission to hunt down a couple of gaps to fill lower-priced before resuming there’s a pattern that it could start to resemble it’s not actually this has similar properties Define the downtrend but notice what starts to happen here cup handle Breakout now when this pattern developed a cup & handle when this pattern develops in a downtrend and it on going down trend scoping out its own Lowe’s at some new lows but really forming a retest of a prior low when this cup & handle appears in the context of an ongoing downtrend that’s pretty substantial bottom and this tends to extend for a very long time however when it appears in the course of an uptrend it has the same initial potential but not for any substantial amount of time so it’s not really a cup & handle but I want to point out that it has the same qualities or characteristics and it has not just the characteristics and its shape and there’s a couple other features here I’m going to point out but also in its resolution or at least its initial resolution but this is the wrong time to be digging be this is a different group of sponsorship that’s forcing this at the end of an ongoing downtrend this is last-minute sellers this is late so it’s okay we’re done with trying to hold this long for the eventual recovery but they are absorbed and that’s the end of that an uptrend this is distribution among stronger hands and stronger hands just can’t time I talk it’s not that they’re unable to they’re just not interested in it they’re not as interested in it as their trades getting out of a sizable positions require selling into some remaining enthusiasm and so when they’re finished Distributing there’s going to be just for the sake of supply and demand suddenly suddenly having outweighing of demand not because demand picked up but because it suddenly relatively Supply shrink so it’s weird I think so it’s basically the stage right we shouldn’t see big volume we shouldn’t see I mean maybe there’s some gateways like this that squeeze higher but not a long drawn-out Affair which thing any of those characteristics concerted broad-based rally effort they were probably in a stronger or at least that’ll speak to the potential for it being a stronger longer term duration and so we shouldn’t be singing it is better if it were then it would probably have a bullet resolution ultimately because they are made to be broken so that is we probably wouldn’t make it out of this not just correction seemingly haphazard under the rim this is one reason why we should look for even hear you don’t know it until a couple of days past we’re suddenly this sentiment an exploded in explicable E maybe but it happens is the explanation suddenly gives way to this to it seems like everybody went home with couple days early it’s developing under the rim and that represents or a flex pessimism at least restrained optimism but not the case to some degree from a contrarian perspective it’s foolish that’s not to say that there’s even a deeper pull back anything is possible and in fact in this pattern that we’ve been tracking there’s room back to 2375 with that being the last relative High number a few weeks ago and the fomc minutes were released and suddenly that afternoon plummeted and began the last down leg of this pattern two consecutive closes above it is what put into play new highs by proxy the replacement of the entire down so I tested it is not unusual but there’s room down to it and probably threw it to 7150 and maybe even lower if there’s some negative news announcement this is been a very headline Rich environment and this Market has been very happy to react to headlines I get the right wind at its back or a headwind whichever and 6061 suddenly comes into play as well but again the resolution of real looking for is just a temporary IR hi Brittney I so that was one it was one feature I like to see which is the handle developing under the rim the next week I’d like to see we haven’t seen yet because this is still likely to track a cup and strike up and handle it’s just that the ultimate resolution is different because of the contacts where to piers in the trendy ongoing trend but the resolution should be aggressive not almost literally exploding higher all the way through but you want to see some recognition and restore the market something fun like a game of musical chairs at the music has stopped and there’s no church what level basically knows every pull back is just a deeper and deeper correction it wouldn’t be abnormal just unusual doesn’t usually happen but it happens that the entire day is retraced and tired of this right now this cup & handle type pattern does stop making does stop being influential if the Cup itself brakes but it’s not unusual other side of normal just unusual to return all the way back down to the actual trend line break the context of this being a very brief higher High new high when it gets there is that the contact is overly optimistic or accessibly optimistic well that’s not the case if this were to correct all the way back down to the breakout point that accepts of optimism that point so the question would take off the table actually closing below whatever level like under 23 6061 so that the next lower jective actually fill this Gap or touches The Break-Up point that takes off the table that the new highs won’t be durable or would be doable that takes off the table it’s just a temporary I coming very little this pattern can and it without probing I knew I okay so this week Mayday that’s interesting coming off of the two days really raining sideways I mean it hasn’t been just know is it really been that sloppy there’s been predictability ahead of the sessions how they were going to behave and levels that have been predictive of those reactions not going into Thursday being able to forecast both of the next session but for instance the forecast Thursday’s likely pull back or even Wednesday at Wednesday’s likely rejection of its morning hun because of its origin and how late that resolved down which it was likely to resolve down from the moment that it tried resolving up has late is the resolution came lower lows became likely and then Thursday afternoon that surge was pretty optimistic without getting out of of 2388 resistance from what was the shallowest potential back to buy it was tested but that opened up the template for retesting Thursday’s look which came very Shelly on a Friday member there was a very big likelihood that’s just opportunity or phone ability but likelihood of a capitulated leg I Collapse at some point Friday which was avoid it so so vulnerable to that and not doing that again this is one of those indications of optimism lot of optimism still in this market even on the second day of two two and a half days flat The Lone Ranger that can be gotten out of the way that often that accepts about them coming neutralize pretty quickly Monday’s open by trending down Sunday night to get down get down to the 71 5072 area not really that low but that’s the lowest that I want to commit to right now dropping down could immediately and the correction and let Monday get on with remember made a lot of a lot of exchange is closed around the world and not just for that day and not necessarily a day but throughout the week so I’m Rollin outages so to speak so not going to be a lot of sponsorship out there to get spooked and to some degree this could have been a lot of sponsorship getting out taking advantage of the rally that preceded it ahead of the illiquidity to come it’s going to be difficult getting trending going trying to break out of this rain not there won’t be attempted But ultimately difficult to succeed earnings is a catalyst to make that happen Wednesday afternoon we’ve got the fomc policy statement and it’s not abnormal it’s just unusual that payroll employment situation report on Friday should hit the same week as the fomc and the bond market is already quite controversial it’s going to be put through the wringer so it should be an interesting week now maybe this is already with that optimism may be successful that liquidity or impending illiquidity can cut both ways either way and maybe capitulated leg has been avoided by holding the test of Prior Lowe’s it wasn’t actually rejected I don’t think that’s the case because if that were the case it should have been rejected by the clothes yesterday but there’s no rejection whatsoever more so it’s more likely it’s just a delay in that could pitch a little late but for some reason 7 News comes out another headline reaction North Korea gives up accept Syrian refugees whatever so suddenly everybody is getting along perfect solution is found Market Gap so it better get up above above Friday morning as well and preferably above the entirety of Friday session essentially 2388 but again I don’t see that I don’t see those headlight number to that pattern playing out with that’s how we’ll know what is playing out big recovery actually get out of Monday’s range which is essentially Thursday’s Rangers well just as quickly as possible even that won’t be definitive there’s a lot of resistance up here nights might think was so close to the prior High of course getting out that aggressively first thing Monday morning that back about the prior to sessions range that quickly of course not there’s a lot of resistance at the weeks I and of course the more alright this could have been 7370 back into this area getting rid of all that only do anything that insufficiently that downside potential would remain alive as gapping up just a little bit doesn’t immediately extend hired establish like the open a trend to the opening 15 minutes something like that but as far as as far as this point for this vantage point so far away knowing that that’s where I would short is a shallow Gap but not necessarily Gap up could then spend the morning backing and filling or gravitating closer to the to last two sessions eyes but the resolution would likely be down I agree alright here’s interesting we’ve been looking at Chipotle for a while I’m not going forward to stop just yet but the point out this was someone up and handle bottom look at that handle develop under the rim and it’s not isolated or isolated it certainly has that can handle add aloe at the end of or the context of an ongoing downtrend but it’s really a retest of a priori it’s a different characteristics Rida Low was aggressive this one actually took longer to develop but definitely different characteristic and by the way directions to that’s alright compare them to reviewokay again came up with a higher low breaking down trending resistance stalling at the last trendline touch and then extending a higher the day off of the lower low stalling pessimistically I’m so a lot of pessimism here in the Dell still stalling pessimistically you’re only getting back toward the prior hi that’s the fomc high that it was actually over laughing at least pre open but still extending out so getting more in the line in other words with ES member we looked at these last week and they just want to Bullet enough to preclude lower those before last week’s rally but they kept the context alive knowing that if there were lower lows it was just part of the pull back and then finally and Qs there’s the fomc taking it out considerably that Pryor High and trending straight up to speculation is alive and well and that may be just as much a reason for a reaction down for starting the week with a dip because speculative activity just got squeezed by the Friday Factor among other things today so depending on today that’s obviously where resources are going