Saturday Review
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/4/17) …
This weekend’s Saturday Review is comprehensive, yet concise. The current attack on retesting the prior week’s overnight highs has a likelihood of succeeding. It’s not 100%, but there should be only one exception that can prevent it Monday. Similarly, the current attack on probing new highs has a likelihood of being meteoric — in both directions — but with two exceptions. One exception that would point higher for longer, and one that would point lower, perhaps indefinitely. Setups that would be predictive of each resolution are described in detail. Enjoy!
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CMG, AMD, INTC, GOOGL, AMZN, GS, BAC, JPM, MS
02/04/2017 09:54:47 Mark Glezer: hi Rod
02/04/2017 09:55:10 Mark Glezer: how long do you think the upward can continue?
02/04/2017 09:59:01 Mark Glezer: Quick request – in light of your new morning schedule would it be possible to publish a brief update around 9:15 in case it narrows down your expectations from the First Trade and indicates the most likely open scenario? That would be very beneficial for those who are not in the room and do not see your Q&A at 9:15
02/04/2017 10:04:02 Mark Glezer: I mean publish on the blog
02/04/2017 10:04:22 Mark Glezer: no
02/04/2017 10:04:33 Mark Glezer: if you can of course
02/04/2017 10:06:26 Mark Glezer: could u repeat the downside targets if we somehow gap under 2283?
02/04/2017 10:06:53 Mark Glezer: no longer 48.5?
02/04/2017 10:10:19 Bill G: I think we may need a decent pullback (5%) to allow a subsequent rally to cause divergences in indexes at a final new high.
02/04/2017 10:11:04 Mark Glezer: BTV is talking about 4-5% pullback in Feb
02/04/2017 10:11:07 Bill G: Call it 3-5%
02/04/2017 10:13:31 Mark Glezer: thx much
02/04/2017 10:17:00 Mark Glezer: I do not know what can make CMG go higher if they keep losing revenue & there are much better alternatives to them around
02/04/2017 10:25:08 Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/21/17) …
With all of last week’s peripheral events, an actual breakout from the ongoing range would have been plausible. Holiday-shortened week, afternoon Yellen appearance, inauguration, ECB & Draghi. But rather than being catalysts for a breakout, they kept alive volatility within the range, and otherwise kept alive the range’s boundaries.
Barron’s Streetwise column attributes the rally’s pause to awaiting actual legislation that reflects President Trump’s agenda, already having sufficiently discounted the hope for it. Anxiousness ahead of earnings may have been a culprit previously, but 10% of the S&P 500 companies have reported and about 75% have beat. Perhaps a bullish reaction to earnings is only delayed. Really? Then the delayed bullish reaction would be only obligatory — temporary before ultimately reversing down.
What could produce a break either way from the ongoing range? How will we know it’s happening, and how far could or should it travel before reversing back into the range? This week’s Saturday Review addresses these conflicting signals and their origins, how they offer contextual clues toward the eventual resolution, and specific influential price objectives.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
NFLX, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, AAPL, GS, S, MSFT, GOOGL (revisited), TXN
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request. (NOTE: There’s no review next weekend)… See you there!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/7/17) …
Last year ended with a decline, and this year started with a rally. Sellers threw a lot at that rally, too. But a couple of days later they only had new highs to show for it. Still overlapping the prior high wasn’t optimal, another form of distribution, but not affecting whether another new trend high close is required. At least eventually, in case this week dips while it can, ahead of the next three-day holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness.
All of which is described in detail during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Possible paths higher and lower are also described, including where Dow 20k fits into things.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FDX, DRI, SPG, GGP, CBL, FENX, MTN, LZB, TPX
01/07/2017 09:32:02 MK: gm
01/07/2017 09:32:03 David B: Good Morning
01/07/2017 09:32:07 Mark Glezer: gm
01/07/2017 09:33:10 MK: nope sounds fine
01/07/2017 09:34:35 MK: fedex has now screwed up 6 packages in a row for me
01/07/2017 09:34:41 MK: can we look at that stock as a short
01/07/2017 09:35:00 MK: audio problems
01/07/2017 09:35:11 David B: audio
01/07/2017 09:36:28 MK: same digitized noise
01/07/2017 09:36:33 G: it was garbled. OK now
01/07/2017 09:36:38 MK: as has been ahppening all week
01/07/2017 09:37:13 MK: In the last 2 trading days Naz is up 44 points.Naz breadth has lost 800 issues
01/07/2017 09:41:29 Bill G: I think March 24,2000 was a rare exception
01/07/2017 09:41:44 David B: audio
01/07/2017 09:42:08 Mark Glezer: terrible sound again
01/07/2017 09:43:42 MK: try to move the mouse less
01/07/2017 09:44:49 MK: one last thing
01/07/2017 09:45:06 MK: Press Windows key + X.Click on Control Panel.Double-Click on the Sound Icon and click on Speakers.Click on Properties.Click on Enhancements Tab.Now click “Disable All Sound Effects”Click OK and check if issue persists.
01/07/2017 09:45:50 MK: and now it sounds fine
01/07/2017 09:46:41 Mark Glezer: good now
01/07/2017 09:46:46 MK: ok
01/07/2017 09:51:22 Mark Glezer: CNBC is talking about 2500 by year’s end. Do you think 2028 limit down retest can be avoided?
01/07/2017 09:54:32 MK: wow that chart that you are showing reeks of distribution
01/07/2017 09:55:42 MK: but i mean of course the sellers were impartient (year end)
01/07/2017 09:59:21 Bill G: Friday close
01/07/2017 09:59:41 Mark Glezer: ES
01/07/2017 10:00:21 MK: In the last 2 trading days Naz is up 44 points.Naz breadth has lost 800 issues
01/07/2017 10:00:28 MK: (had to reiterate)
01/07/2017 10:01:09 MK: i have a lot of stats
01/07/2017 10:01:11 MK: Consensus Bulls 74%, highest since 2 days BEFORE Brexit.
01/07/2017 10:01:39 MK: The last time $SPX closed at an all-time high with more ⬇️than ⬆️stocks & volume and < 4% at 52-week highs was March 24, 2000.
01/07/2017 10:02:43 MK: also
01/07/2017 10:02:53 MK: Rut showing MASSIVE distribution IMO
01/07/2017 10:04:34 Mark Glezer: not looking for substantial or extended higher does not mean we reverse down anytime soon – we can maintain a narrow range for awhile?
01/07/2017 10:09:33 MK: i dont’ think i’ve ever seen a trading range at “fresh” levels unelss on the downside
01/07/2017 10:09:53 Mark Glezer: yes expanding, relatively narrow
01/07/2017 10:11:24 Mark Glezer: Fed can kill the rally
01/07/2017 10:14:39 MK: DRI
01/07/2017 10:15:04 MK: SPG
01/07/2017 10:15:06 MK: GGP
01/07/2017 10:15:24 MK: CBL
01/07/2017 10:15:32 MK: Yes
01/07/2017 10:15:34 MK: sounds great
01/07/2017 10:16:11 MK: FENX
01/07/2017 10:16:32 MK: For DRI
01/07/2017 10:16:37 MK: seems like this is going to bounce
01/07/2017 10:18:49 David B: audio
01/07/2017 10:19:04 MK: MTN
01/07/2017 10:19:22 MK: LZB
01/07/2017 10:19:25 MK: OK
01/07/2017 10:19:27 MK: thanks
01/07/2017 10:19:31 MK: i’ll stop now
01/07/2017 10:19:42 MK: that OK was not a stock
01/07/2017 10:22:27 MK: supposedly bearish
01/07/2017 10:22:38 MK: was working on a short MALL REiIT thesis
01/07/2017 10:22:42 MK: but seems pretty bullish
01/07/2017 10:26:08 MK: no
01/07/2017 10:26:13 MK: FENIX is a parts supplier
01/07/2017 10:26:16 MK: for Autos
01/07/2017 10:26:32 MK: this is a potential long
01/07/2017 10:26:36 MK: looks bad
01/07/2017 10:27:56 MK: I”m not dead yet
01/07/2017 10:28:02 MK: i’m feeling much better
01/07/2017 10:28:47 MK: I swear at some point
01/07/2017 10:28:51 MK: this is going to be a great short
01/07/2017 10:29:23 MK: yeah its unreal
01/07/2017 10:29:30 MK: reminds me of PII
01/07/2017 10:29:51 MK: yeah remember i wanted to short hat
01/07/2017 10:29:52 MK: for years
01/07/2017 10:29:55 MK: yeah
01/07/2017 10:30:09 MK: hahah
01/07/2017 10:30:57 MK: Just for my own entertainments sake
01/07/2017 10:30:59 MK: TPX
01/07/2017 10:31:09 MK: after LZB
01/07/2017 10:31:18 MK: ok
01/07/2017 10:31:23 MK: maybe i’ll sell some calls
01/07/2017 10:34:15 MK: don’t worrya bout TPX
01/07/2017 10:34:17 MK: have a good weekend
01/07/2017 10:34:21 MK: ok
01/07/2017 10:34:22 MK: thanks
01/07/2017 10:36:39 Bill G: As an aside, my understanding on Fedex/UPS tracking is that only a statistical scanning sampling is taken on each leg(long haul truck,plane, delivery truck,etc) and the assumption is made all the other packages arrive with the sampling. Of course at some point, the delivery guy has a package that doesn’t belong on his truck.The mistakes are so small relative to the volume.
01/07/2017 10:37:43 Mark Glezer: Happy New Year! thx!