Saturday Review

This weekend’s Saturday Review caught up with the two major current influences: a test of the 2185.00-2186.00 objective, and a bearish WedEX still playing out. The likeliest possible resolutions are put into perspective of Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness influence. Other near-term bearish catalysts include a Mario Draghi appearance Monday, and FOMC Minutes being released into an unusually illiquid Wednesday afternoon environment.

Conclusion: A dip should be obvious quickly, or else it may be avoided until after the holiday.

Potential downsides for a dip was described, and the reasons for them, down to 2162.00 or 2141.00. Deeper potential was also described, but generally dismissed for the next downleg, since such productive reversals typically don’t originate at expiration.

Reversing down near-term is likely also because of other factors, such as Friday avoiding a new high close that would have entrenched its uptrend, interest rates having become very attractive vs. stock valuations, and my own proprietary observations among the ES-NQ-YM index risk spectrum. Extending higher anyway or eventually, however unlikely, would next target the 2220.00 area.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GDX, GDXJ, GILD, IBB, AAPL, XLV, ADBE, CRM

11/19/2016 09:31:09 Mark Glezer: gm
11/19/2016 09:37:03 charlie:
11/19/2016 09:37:12 charlie: hi
11/19/2016 09:57:30 d: after the election would you categorize some the sectors of the market like the bond market,russell,financials went into an up crash?. Was the rally in the market was because of the bond markt sell offf?
11/19/2016 09:59:48 Mark Glezer: is 62 likelier than 41 in this setup?
11/19/2016 10:15:40 d: GILD,IBB
11/19/2016 10:21:44 Mark Glezer: elaborating on my Q above. 10 pts move on ES is roughly equivalent to 100 pts move on DOW. A move to 41 could be equivalent to 400 pts drop in DOW and that is not very likely over the course of the next 2 days without a significant news even
11/19/2016 10:21:47 Mark Glezer: event
11/19/2016 10:21:54 Bill G: APPL,XLV
11/19/2016 10:22:17 d: ADBE,CRM
11/19/2016 10:26:30 Bill G: Mark—A 200 pt drop in the Dow would be near the 18650 tgt and also 2142 es
11/19/2016 10:27:41 Mark Glezer: oops maybe I’m wrong
11/19/2016 10:30:12 Bill G: Mark, your not wrong, I meant 2162 es
11/19/2016 10:31:51 Mark Glezer: got u Bill – it’s cool
11/19/2016 10:33:19 Mark Glezer: that’s why I imply that 62 might be slightly likelier since 200 is likelier than 400 but Rod addressed that
11/19/2016 10:33:36 Bill G: I agree
11/19/2016 10:45:01 Bill G: Probably too many steps ahead, but if the mkt works its way up to 2220, woluld that be a reasonable level to expect an intermediate correction dn to 1980ish
11/19/2016 10:46:21 Mark Glezer: yes
11/19/2016 10:46:25 Bill G: yes
11/19/2016 10:46:53 d: Thanks
11/19/2016 10:46:56 Bill G: question
11/19/2016 10:46:58 Mark Glezer: thx
11/19/2016 10:47:02 Mark Glezer: Q
11/19/2016 10:47:02 charlie: tks
11/19/2016 10:47:05 Mark Glezer: above
11/19/2016 10:47:07 Bill G: above
11/19/2016 10:49:32 Bill G: thanks
11/19/2016 10:49:32 Mark Glezer: thx

Interest rates have become very attractive compared to stocks, which rallied sharply last week. Rotation may have begun already, but only on the margins, so stocks may have more upside. But it’s not often too long after Gold tumbles that stocks tend to follow.

Meanwhile, Tuesday night’s plunge left a mark. But it didn’t change the structure that greeted last week’s rally. Saturday Review describes that impact, and also addresses the market’s likely paths, their levels, and characteristics to expect.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BAC, AAPL, FB, GOOGL, NFLX

11/12/2016 09:31:32 David B: Good Morning
11/12/2016 09:32:08 Mark Glezer: gm
11/12/2016 09:32:11 charlie: hi
11/12/2016 09:51:20 Mark Glezer: historically limit downs retested within a month or so?
11/12/2016 09:54:48 sm: While there is “no particular timeframe” on the retest of last weeks low, is there nevertheless a persistent drag on the market’s ability to rally from here – to new highs and beyond? At what point would the market escape the ‘magnetic pull’ of the need to retest that low?
11/12/2016 09:56:05 Mark Glezer: major indexes showed a bearish relationship lately, is that still the case?
11/12/2016 10:09:07 sm: Since the NQs generally represent speculative interest (relative to the S&Ps and DOW), how does this underperformance square with your earlier comment that the context of the rally right now (which has the needed retest of last week’s low still outstanding) will be characteried by speculative fervor?
11/12/2016 10:10:14 Mark Glezer: fresh high in ES – meaning 86-87 would not suffice to expect a durable reversal?
11/12/2016 10:15:34 Mark Glezer: BAC – off to the races?
11/12/2016 10:15:54 sm: Reaching 87 – 92 WOULD change the structure – would it not?
11/12/2016 10:16:15 sm: Isn’t that a new high?
11/12/2016 10:16:52 sm: I interpreted your meaning of ‘structure’ as lower lows and lower highs
11/12/2016 10:17:57 sm: I guess that’s what I’m saying – that if a new high is seen, it means that we have a new structure of higher highs (and higher lows) underway.
11/12/2016 10:22:25 David B: has 2120 and 2160 cash been a very influence level on a break below. it seems when we godown they seem to bounce back above
11/12/2016 10:22:39 David B: godown=gone down
11/12/2016 10:29:15 Bill G: NFLX still above lower highs
11/12/2016 10:30:19 Mark Glezer: thx much
11/12/2016 10:30:28 charlie: tks
11/12/2016 10:31:06 sm: thx