Saturday Review

The week ended with a retest of last Friday’s close, which was the highest close of the current bear market rally. So, did the week’s interim sellers accomplish nothing? They did chip away at support, which will be relevant if ever retested. Did the week’s buyers accomplish anything? They did neutralize the attraction above back to the prior Friday’s gap. Otherwise, nothing developed that makes either direction more likely than the other. But those signals were clarified, and we describe them during this week’s Saturday Review.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GE, AMZN, LMT, MMM, SBUX, V, AAPL, AMD, ALGN, MSFT, FB, TSLA, NOW, MA, UPS, FDX

transcript

—————– (01/26/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.

David B: Good Morning

ljr: gm

Adam: hi

Mark G: gm

ljr: shutdown over gap up?
—————– (01/26/2019 09:35) —————–
ljr: yes

ljr: oh, was not watching.
—————– (01/26/2019 10:04) —————–
Mark G: any time expectation how long a move to retest the Dec low develops?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:06) —————–
David B: it seems this week that market did not really care about the china news. do you think the market has priced in?

ljr: is there any relevance to 2018 jan top being almost 1 year ago?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: so this move up since jan has been weak hands?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:11) —————–
David B: are we going to need to see the nasdaq under perform which will start to tell us the bear market rally is over?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:13) —————–
David B: it seems like speculation is back with semi conductor stocks really out performing?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:15) —————–
David B: GE,AMZN

ljr: LMT, MMM (Tues pre-open)AAPL, AMD, ALGN (tues close)

David B: SBUX,V
—————– (01/26/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: is $ 9.00 on GE a key level for a break out?
—————– (01/26/2019 10:26) —————–
ljr: LMT earnings this tues

ljr: yes
—————– (01/26/2019 10:33) —————–
ljr: MSFT, FB, TSLA,NOW (earnings Wed close)
—————– (01/26/2019 10:36) —————–
ljr: V earnings this week i believe
—————– (01/26/2019 10:47) —————–
ljr: MA, UPS (both Thurs pre-open)

ljr: thx

David B: FDX
—————– (01/26/2019 10:51) —————–
ljr: thx for today.
—————– (01/26/2019 10:54) —————–
David B: Thanks

Mark G: thx much

Yearly earnings begin this week, which also includes monthly expirations. All against the backdrop of a government shutdown and ongoing trade negotiations with China. Do those bricks comprise the proverbial Wall of Worry that this recent rally has been climbing? And if this rally is only a temporary corrective bounce, then where is it likely to end, and how will we know it has ended? These questions and more are answered during this week’s Saturday Review.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
JPM, WFC, WDC, GE, GS, MS, RYE, FDX

transcript

Rod David: -=-=-=-

Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.

jp: gm

Bill G: gm

David B: Good Morning
—————– (01/12/2019 09:36) —————–
Mark G: gm
—————– (01/12/2019 09:47) —————–
ljr iPad: pivot reversal applies to stocks too?

ljr iPad: :)
—————– (01/12/2019 10:01) —————–
David B: because of option expiration will it still leave questions unanswered either up or down?

David B: because of what option expirations can do
—————– (01/12/2019 10:04) —————–
Bill G: This option ex unusual since the following Mon is a holiday.
—————– (01/12/2019 10:05) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: JPM WFC earnings tues morning.

Mark G: FWIW general perception that the rally may persist thru March with VIX coming down fast until we get China resolution & brexit news that may turn things around

David B: will some of the earlier reports to earnings and reactions important on how the market reacts for the next move?

ljr iPad: GS: earnings wed morning.

David B: yes

ljr iPad: MS: thurs morning

ljr iPad: thx
—————– (01/12/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: if we see bad news react positive means they were priced in?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:11) —————–
Mark G: AAPL’s warning followed by a very bearish day, Similar warning by smb else now may not have that effect
—————– (01/12/2019 10:13) —————–
ljr iPad: would news related pop or drop need to be retraces? ie shutdown or China?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:14) —————–
Mark G: right

Mark G: I mean a dip that is being bought
—————– (01/12/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: WDC,GE
—————– (01/12/2019 10:29) —————–
Bill G: RYE equal wt energy etf. At resist?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:33) —————–
Bill G: pbl or stop on GE?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:34) —————–
David B: FDX
—————– (01/12/2019 10:41) —————–
Bill G: Near .382 of May high and 50day ma also
—————– (01/12/2019 10:45) —————–
Mark G: more reliable pivot reversal would start reversing aftre 11:30?
—————– (01/12/2019 10:49) —————–
David B: yes

Mark G: thx much

Bill G: Have a good one

David B: Thanks

The Christmas low had reacted up considerably before ranging sideways into year-end. And the new year’s first week threatened to start retracing the post-Christmas rally. Instead, the rally may have resumed.

What if it has resumed, and what if it hasn’t, actually? What levels and behaviors will tell us either way? And what is already predictable, or reliable, or likely as the market’s next step Monday?

These questions, and many more that were asked by attendees, are addressed during this week’s Saturday Review.

 CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WDFC, AAPL, GE, SYMC, UA, WDC, MDB, MSFT, FB

transcript

—————– (01/05/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.

Mark G: gm

Bill G: gm

David B: Good Morning
—————– (01/05/2019 09:35) —————–
jp: gm

ljr iPad: gm
—————– (01/05/2019 09:48) —————–
Mark G: v-bottom suggests that the decline may not be over?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:52) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:58) —————–
David B: is a session long decline or rally session be viewed differently because this was on a friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:00) —————–
David B: was the market discounting thursday the unemployment report is part of the rally for friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:01) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:02) —————–
David B: if the fed did not speak and it was just the job number we may not have rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: yes

Mark G: if Fed signaled a policy change with respect to balance sheet, we may be heading up near term still/
—————– (01/05/2019 10:06) —————–
Mark G: longer term – up or down retracing all of Trump rally
—————– (01/05/2019 10:08) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: WDFC big run up in 2018, earnings we’d

ljr iPad: Wednesday
—————– (01/05/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: Has the correlation with bonds over the last few days showing mony moving out and into stocks?

Mark G: k

David B: money
—————– (01/05/2019 10:12) —————–
ljr iPad: AAPL
—————– (01/05/2019 10:13) —————–
ljr iPad: buyable low?

David B: GE,SYMC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: UA,WDC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:27) —————–
ljr iPad: for wdfc is there an upper target or objective?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:28) —————–
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (01/05/2019 10:33) —————–
David B: MSFT

ljr iPad: FB, MSFT
—————– (01/05/2019 10:35) —————–
ljr iPad: MDB
—————– (01/05/2019 10:44) —————–
David B: bears markets usually take months and possibly years to change. Wouldn’t one want to look at the odds that this is going to resolve back down? and if not does that mean we were never in a bear market?

David B: bear market
—————– (01/05/2019 10:46) —————–
ljr iPad: thx for today.
—————– (01/05/2019 10:47) —————–
David B: will we know that shortly or could take weeks?

Mark G: if the low 2317 is retested would the time matter – the longer it’s delayed the likelier to break lower?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:51) —————–
David B: how do you think earnings plays into the overall market. is the market expecting the worst with no growth?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:53) —————–
Bill G: If the mkt makes a new low shortly.\, more room for a larger rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:54) —————–
Mark G: that is different from retesting a Feb prior low – the longer it took the liklier the break lower became

David B: does gold have a correlation with stocks or is it just like bonds?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:57) —————–
Bill G: How much lower than the recent low can still be considered only a test of that low?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:59) —————–
David B: can any news events or things the market is concern about change a market on a dime from a bear market to bullish or the opposite. Like we ar seeing with the fed and china

David B: are
—————– (01/05/2019 11:02) —————–
Bill G: thanks

Mark G: valuation crowd is saying at 2350 earnings could be zero so we may not go down more unless earnings are negative
—————– (01/05/2019 11:07) —————–
Mark G: :)

David B: it seems like now they are buying the dips where before they were selling rallies?
—————– (01/05/2019 11:09) —————–
David B: yes so they are no accumulative?

David B: not

David B: ok

David B: Thanks

Mark G: thx much