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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The preferably 1.1485 pullback limit was probed to its room for noise down to 1.1450 Tuesday. Still holding keeps alive the rally potential. But the window is not unlimited, and not already rallying into Tuesday afternoon is not helpful.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat, narrow ranging Tuesday held “lower prior highs” to remain position for retesting last week’s highs up to 1333.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip back down to the 15.82 buy signal held as support to maintain near-term potential for filling Thursday’s 16.16 opening gap.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial strength Tuesday quickly extended through the 145-16 buy signal to test 146-00, and then retraced back down to 145-16. Closing higher Wednesday would signal a bigger rally underway targeting at least last week’s highs.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Choppy sideways ranging Tuesday held the range’s upper-end to remain within proximity of probing fresh highs, greeting Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows were probed overnight, but Tuesday’s intraday developed entirely within Monday’s range. Strength, or not, a bottom can’t form until a recovery into “higher prior lows” is retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s open.
Mid-day Update… Backing-and-filling.
Morning’s target launches steep reversal down.
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Still overlapping this morning’s 2730.00 bias-up target prevented renewing its signal. It was still a bias-up environment, and its 2737.00 renewed bias-up target was met anyway. And touching it at the morning’s high reacted back down to 2730.00 as the bias environment began lapsing.
The noon hour broke lower, coming to within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2722.00 bias-down target. The low’s oversold RSIs formed as the noon hour was lapsing, so it doesn’t require a retest. But back under 2724.75 would start to signal the low’s retest underway. It’s still a bias-down environment, so perhaps deeper.
Meanwhile, the open’s 2728.00 gap will want to be retested after having retraced back into a prior session’s range. The reaction up from attacking 2722.00 has come to within 1-2 points. Neutralizing its attraction and then triggering a sell signal would be more vulnerable to extending down further.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 6, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile or reliably influential econ reports are scheduled for Wednesday. (Barely anything more for the balance of the week, too.). But any reaction to the pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2736.25 | 2735.00 |
| …would target | 2744.00 | 2742.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2729.75 | 2728.50 |
| …would target | 2723.25 | 2722.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And higher.
Gap up, extending, and extending again.
Rallying 10-11 points out of Europe’s opens had tested 2728.25 before correcting down to 2724.75. That began a narrowing range which formed an Ascending Triangle. Greeting the open at its upper-end almost literally exploded higher.
Resistance at 2732.50-2733.25 pushed price back down to the pre-open Triangle’s 2728.25 upper-end in time to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, and fresh highs just attacked 2735.00.
Extending higher would next target 2737.00, and potentially 2743.50, on the way to the rally’s 2751.00 (revised) target and its room for noise up to 2757.00. Otherwise, RSIs haven’t reflected any enthusiasm, and back under 2730.25 would target 2726.25, potentially lower.