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Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2948.00 | 2949.75 |
| …would target | 2953.25 | 2955.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2939.75 | 2941.50 |
| …would target | 2933.25 | 2935.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s open had already shrugged off a threatened Globex-flip. Probing above Friday’s 2942.75 high Sunday night to 2946.75 would have been the rubber band stretch, 
and exiting the open under the 2939.00 Earlier Globex Low would have been the snap back down. But the pre-open test of 2939.00 was recovered before the open, negating the bearish setup.
Triggering the morning’s bias-up signal had left its 2950.50 bias-up target outstanding, but the noon hour neutralized it. Triggering the afternoon’s 2946.75 bias-up signal left its 2954.25 bias-up target outstanding. Attacking it up to 2951.50 didn’t prevent a late-afternoon drop back down to the morning’s 2944.50 bias-up signal as support. And lower through the close to 2941.75.
The session barely closed positive, but it closed positive. Anxiousness ahead of GOOGL’s post-close earnings was probably the culprit behind inhibiting the afternoon’s rally. Well-deserved inhibition, as GOOGL plunged 73 points just minutes after my pre-open update noted Monday’s suspiciously late bounce to 1293.00. That’s now history, and fully discounted by the market.
Tuesday’s econ calendar is very heavy with plenty of reports, and Wednesday’s calendar is very weighty with FOMC events. The quarterly earnings onslaught continues, and this stage continues shaping a different profile than the first round of reports.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Lackluster Sunday night and Monday morning eventually firmed to probe above Friday’s highs to attack 1.1235, which must be recovered before confirming the decline’s momentum has lapsed and the trend may be reversing up.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Blipping-up from Monday’s gap down didn’t prevent resuming Sunday night’s slide from Friday’s 1288.50 close. Monday morning’s test and retest of 1280.00 held above the 1277.50 buy signal that had triggered last week, but rallying into Tuesday’s close is the minimum bullish requirement.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward from to Jul which trades at a 7-cent premium to May]… Overnight weakness attacking the 14.95 buy signal (basis Jul, 14.88 basis May) collapsed through the open to attack 14.90. While the gap now outstanding from Friday’s 15.09 close doesn’t require being filled, it is still a near-term attraction so long as any lower low intraday Tuesday is recovered to close positive.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the bounce Friday to test “higher prior lows” and to fill an outstanding gap allowed raising the sell signal to 147-04 with a close under 146-30 being a confirmation. Both were tested Monday, and extending any lower would signal the 145-24 target remains in-play.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s 62.28 low was attacked to within 20 cents Sunday night but not so much Monday morning. No second consecutive lower close avoids confirming the trend has reversed down, and keeps alive the likelihood for fresh highs targeting 67.00 which would be triggered back above 64.35.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 2.61 close had triggered the 2.54 buy signal, which was attacked as support Monday down to 2.55. Almost all of which was recovered throughout the afternoon. A second consecutive higher close would have confirmed the recovery already underway, but closing above 2.61 Tuesday would be almost as reliably bullish.
Mid-day Update… BIAS-UP.
Morning’s target neutralized, new target in-play.
Although triggered late, this morning’s bias-up signal was confirmed when the market printed a fresh high above its pre-10:15 high. Its 2950.50 bias-up target wasn’t met before this morning’s bias environment lapsed, so it became “unfinished business.” Attacking it to within 3 ticks during the noon hour neutralized it. It is no longer unfinished business.
Never mind that, this afternoon’s 2946.75 bias-up signal just triggered. Its 2954.25 bias-up target is in-play. A fresh high above 2950.00 would help to confirm.
Meanwhile, back under the bias-up signal through 1:30 could invalidate the bias-up and leave no unfinished business above. Probing lower any later would otherwise likely be only temporary, unless also rejecting the 2936.50 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 30, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open PMI is released privately several minutes earlier to institutional subscribers, and the price reaction tends to repeat when released publicly. It is followed by Consumer Confidence, which is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. The pre-open reports are neither, but any noticeable reaction anyway would likely be duplicated by the post-open reports.
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET