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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s flat open at 2642.75 eventually probed up to 2650.00, then reversed down to 2638.25. The reversal came in time to avoid triggering bias-up, but then a surge came in time to invalidate the no-bias. The no-bias objective was fulfilled anyway, as yet another reversal probed attacked overnight lows to within 3 ticks at 2629.25.
And that was it for Tuesday’s trending. An otherwise invalidated signal, nevertheless fulfilled. No other indications of sponsorship developed, and the balance of the session ranged choppily to barely probe positive territory. Perhaps inhibited ahead of AAPL’s post-open earnings.
An actual probe above Tuesday morning’s highs wouldn’t be surprising, as described during the Market Tour. Oversold RSIs at the low do require an eventual retest. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events may inhibit the morning’s volatility, but should enhance it in the afternoon.
UPDATE: AAPL earnings a little better than estimates, certainly not disappointing, and generating an upside reaction (for now).
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s test of the breakout’s 1.1485 target was also a second consecutive higher close in the pattern which requires at least an eventual third higher close. Tuesday was not it, as price shallowly backed-and-filled.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The confirmed breakout finally probed above Sunday night’s highs, gapping up and hovering at fresh highs. While that fulfills the breakout’s minimum required third higher close, the pattern still has potential for extending to its 1319.50 target.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up to the downtrending channel’s high held its test intraday, just as Monday had held a test of the channel’s lower connector. Tuesday also fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s third higher close requirement, so the pattern isn’t required to extend any higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Recovering immediately again through 145-12 Tuesday not only rejected Monday afternoon’s rejection of the open’s similar setup, but also maintained the recovery and extended above Monday’s highs to signal at least a corrective bounce underway. Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement is being greeted from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s gap down and intraday extension was likely an anomaly and unlikely to launch a new downleg. Tuesday’s gap up back to Monday’s open extended higher intraday to suggest as much, as well. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm, but it’s too late to qualify Tuesday’s recovery as greeting Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rolling coverage forward from Feb to Mar, and giving the pattern that session to coordinate the rollover for new parameters that could absorb Monday’s excessive drop.
Mid-day Update… Inhibition.
Bouncing back into resistance.
Recovering from this morning’s 2628.50 low extended to 2643.50 as the noon hour began. Its reaction down was contained to 2637.50. When this afternoon’s trending mattered most, price action was fluctuating around yesterday’s close / today’s open of 2642.75. And testing this afternoon’s 2640.75 bias-up signal at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias.
Not a bias-up targeting this morning’s highs, but no requirement not to try. And nothing preventing another downdraft.
Back above 2642.50 would start to signal a rally attempt underway. Back under 2632.50 would instead signal another downdraft underway targeting a retest of the low’s oversold RSIs. If extended to 2625.00, then collapsing through an air pocket below would be likely. Meanwhile, post-close earnings due from AAPL may inhibit attempts at either.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 30, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s monthly payrolls week, so jobs reports take a higher-profile for fine-tuning its data, and for gauging market sentiment. That begins with Wednesday’s ADP report. The afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action, but even more so is the subsequent Fed Chair press conference. Then MSFT and FB announce earnings post-close, which often inhibits volatility, so this will be an interesting close.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2642.00 | 2640.75 |
| …would target | 2650.50 | 2649.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2633.50 | 2632.00 |
| …would target | 2625.75 | 2624.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.