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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2598.25 | 2598.50 |
| …would target | 2605.25 | 2605.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2587.50 | 2588.00 |
| …would target | 2580.50 | 2581.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday morning’s bias-down signal triggered after a post-open dip to had probed 9 points under the bias-down target to 2562.00 — still above the 2560.50 overnight low, and all well below Wednesday’s 2582.50 and 2586.25 closes. Also, all well below Wednesday’s 2569.00 low, failing to form a bullish Isolation setup.
But the morning rallied anyway, testing the window’s 2679.00 bias-down signal as resistance. And probing it, filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 2582.50-2586.25 closes, and testing the morning’s 2590.75 bias-up signal where any higher would have invalidated the bias-down environment. But another dip was required, and it got to 2573.50 before resuming the rally to close back at or above Wednesday’s 2596.75 high to finally isolate the overnight/open’s failed reversal attempt.
The rally’s next higher objective at 2606.00 remains intact, somewhat likelier to include its room for noise up to 2626.00. None of which prevents another interim dip, although it should be limited to 2581.00 to be brief, or to 2567.00 to be recoverable.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s dip tested the gap below down to 1.1547 that Wednesday’s rally had sliced through. Buying pressure should be impatient and help to prevent any further weakness.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to 1298.00 wasn’t extended intraday Thursday. More so, it was retraced into negative territory down to 1287.00. The 1283.00 buy signal wasn’t threatened, but likely will be if the pattern isn’t rallying into the weekend.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday became choppier Thursday as early strength was reversed into negative territory. The early attraction to prior highs wasn’t overly optimistic, but rallying further is likely so long as early selling is avoided Friday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower hovering just above 145-08 essentially held Wednesday’s lows. A fresh low can’t be discounted, but it must snap back up and rally strongly to avoid triggering a larger downleg.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Thursday tested 52.70, still having room down to 51.00 to maintain the rally. Othewsise, back under 50.15 would start to signal the trend reversing down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging didn’t seem to exploit Thursday’s inside day, and its own mild pessimism. But any initial strength Friday would likely be credible for extending higher into the weekend.
Mid-day Update… Another shot at upside.
Recovery fills gap, and higher.
The overnight drop was rejected through the open. The morning’s rally didn’t reject it, either. Now the afternoon offers one more chance to reinstate the rally’s upside momentum.
This morning’s 2590.75 bias-down signal was tested this morning, but not recovered in time to invalidate the bias-down rally. So its 2579.00 bias-down signal required a retest for having probed above it during a bias-down environment. That’s now done.
2579.00 was tested by several points, but held this afternoon’s 2577.00 bias-down signal to signal late no-bias. That hasn’t prevented probing under it to 2573.50, which is no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Extending under 2573.50 would start signaling that attractions above were being ignored by a bigger downleg. Otherwise, back above 2579.00 would start to signal the recovery is trying again.
The open missed an opportunity to isolate the overnight dip under yesterday’s lows. This morning missed the opportunity to reject the open’s gap under yesterday’s lows. Not exploiting the failed isolation and rejection setups would give one more opening to a recovery, and to resuming the rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s only econ report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. It’s also probably a no-show due to the government shutdown. Which leaves an unusually empty morning calendar for a Friday — with Monday’s calendar even emptier.
*CPI
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET