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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s pullback holding 1.1485 and 1.1500 needed confirmation from immediately resuming the rally, which Wednesday’s rally provided, extending sharply higher to 1.1625, the highest level in months. Pullbacks should now hold 1.1580 to maintain the upside momentum.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping deeper overnight was reversed back up Wednesday to attack recent highs up to 1294.50. Extending the rally to fresh highs should not be delayed much longer as the 1319.50 target remains intact.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying Wednesday morning attacked prior highs to help confirm that Tuesday’s shallow dip had gained no traction for extending down.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the decline into Wednesday’s open needed to hold 145-08 for even suggesting that a pullback may have completed. It was attacked to within 3 ticks, and now back above 146-04 would launch at least a corrective bounce. Closing first under 145-08 would signal a new downleg was already underway.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending the rally overnight to gap up Wednesday provided the immediate confirmation needed for Tuesday’s rally attacking 50.00. Which shouldn’t have been difficult since EIA was being greeted from a position of strength. Trending sharply higher intraday to attack 52.60 now allows upside momentum to remain intact above 51.00, with room for noise down to 50.15.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s flat ranging doesn’t greet Thursday’s EIA report from either a position of strength or a position of weakness, still needing to recover 3.15 to begin signaling that a bottom is forming.
Mid-day Update… Closing in.
Nearing the next higher target.
This morning yet again dipped aggressively. And yet again, the dip was retraced entirely back up to a new relative high.
The first half-hour’s test of 2590.00 was retraced just in enough and just in time to avoid renewing bias-up by 
exceeding the 2586.50 bias-up target. Its eventual collapse tested this morning’s 2569.25 bias-down signal. Support there rejected the dip, which was retraced entirely to fresh highs at 2595.50.
This afternoon’s 2592.25 bias-up signal was still being overlapped at 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. The bias signal need not hold, and its target isn’t necessarily in-play. But the upside has slowed ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
Meanwhile, after several intraday dips and their recoveries during the past several sessions,
each resolving in higher highs, the market seems to be accepting that the near-term trend remains up. Pullbacks are getting shallower and their retracements are coming earlier.
Buyers no longer wait to get long for the next higher high. Not that another dip can’t develop, but its likelihood gets exponentially less with each dip’s recovery to a fresh high. None of which prevents a negative knee-jerk reaction down on FOMC Minutes due shortly.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 10, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s claims and trade reports may be delayed due to the government shutdown. But several Fed speakers including the Chair should be sufficient catalysts for influencing price action to remain volatile.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Tom Barkin Speaks
8:35 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
12:30 PM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
12:45 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:00 PM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2591.25 | 2592.25 |
| …would target | 2596.75 | 2597.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2592.75 | 2583.50 |
| …would target | 2574.50 | 2575.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dodgeballs.
Gap up navigates tweets and headlines.
The pre-open pullback testing 2575.00 had held above the earlier Globex low to avoid its Flip setup. Attacking 2586.00 before the 2583.00 opening print — both being above yesterday’s highs — had avoided an Isolation setup. Neither bearish setup was forming, so the likelihood for this morning to probe higher remained intact.
None of which will ever be strong enough to prevent tweets and headlines from triggering negative knee-jerk reactions down. But attacking the market at a position of strength is still likely to recover. And sell signals have been pierced only in reaction to news, and then only overlapped. Stretching the rubber band continues to snap back up.
The challenges did prevent exceeding the 2586.50 bias-up target at 10:15 which would have renewed the bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment, free to continue probing above yesterday’s highs this morning, if not also to trend toward the 2606.0 target.
Back under 2582.00 could test the 2577.00 bias-up signal as support, where either the pullback extends even lower, or else snaps back up again.