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Post-open Review… Fulfilling setups.
Reversal attempt fails, upside rules.
The open was greeted at the 2532.00 earlier Globex low. The Globex-flip setup was formed, and could only trigger or not trigger. A dip to 2526.50 was recovered halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, 
missing an opportunity to suggest that bearish reinforcements were being attracted. Still overlapping 2532.00 at 9:45 was a missed opportunity to entrench a reversal down.
But momentum had not reversed up. Another dip tested the 2524.50 bias-down signal, and also recovered. Fresh post-open highs up to 2540.00 weren’t maintained in time to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal. Which the grace period was still testing, to trigger noN-bias.
Not no-bias which would require an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Not bias-up requiring meeting its target. But noN-bias, which could fluctuate or trend regardless of the bias parameters.
Actually, having failed to reverse the momentum down, we had been discussing the likelihood for probing higher anyway. Friday’s session-long setup was still likely to probe or trend higher this morning. And the failed Globex-flip could be as bullish as it would have been bearish. But “no-bias trending” would have required retracing down to the bias-up signal, a noN-bias rally wouldn’t require retracing.
Currently, the 2551.75 overnight high is being attacked to within 1 point; it doesn’t require a retest. The bear market rally’s 2548.00-2555.00 target area is being met; it doesn’t require a thorough test. Back under 2543.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. The rally is otherwise free to extend higher.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Extending higher, or not.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2483.00 open had recovered from probing overnight under Thursday’s low down to 2438.50. And having trended down into Thursday’s close, gapping up above its 2474.00 afternoon high formed a “session-long rally” setup. Every timing window did probe its prior timing window’s high, except for the last two which consolidated under the noon hour’s 2439.00 high, back down to 2522.50. Usually only one window is an exception, but the setup still succeeded in avoiding any downtrending as it closed around 2531.00-2533.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up, albeit slightly and still within Friday afternoon’s range to 2537.00. Its reaction down to 2532.00 was quickly absorbed by extending to fresh highs attacking 2552.00. Trending down since then had retraced the 2532.00 earlier Globex low by midnight. Extending down since then has been probing negative territory, attacking the lower-end of Friday afternoon’s range at 2523.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Successful session-long signals tend to extend through the following morning. Similarly, the missing window tends to be fulfilled the following morning, aggressively to compensate for the delay. Either way, the burden of proof is definitely on sellers. In this weekend’s Saturday Review we discussed the likeliest way for way sellers to retake control being through a Globex-flip setup. A Globex-flip is now being threatened as the overnight probe above Friday’s high has retraced back down to the 2532.50 earlier Globex low. And with the 2552.00 overnight high having fulfilled the bear market rally’s next higher objective at 2548.00-2555.00, reversing down could be that much more durable. Until the setup triggers, its reversal can be avoided and the morning can still probe fresh highs. And greeting the open with a Globex-flip that doesn’t trigger can be as bullish as the setup would have been bearish. Closing any higher would then target 2606.00, still all within the context of being a temporary bear market rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2532.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above above 2532.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2524.50 bias-down signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/5/19) …That’s going to leave a mark.
The Christmas low had reacted up considerably before ranging sideways into year-end. And the new year’s first week threatened to start retracing the post-Christmas rally. Instead, the rally may have resumed.
What if it has resumed, and what if it hasn’t, actually? What levels and behaviors will tell us either way? And what is already predictable, or reliable, or likely as the market’s next step Monday?
These questions, and many more that were asked by attendees, are addressed during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WDFC, AAPL, GE, SYMC, UA, WDC, MDB, MSFT, FB
transcript
—————– (01/05/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Mark G: gm
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
—————– (01/05/2019 09:35) —————–
jp: gm
ljr iPad: gm
—————– (01/05/2019 09:48) —————–
Mark G: v-bottom suggests that the decline may not be over?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:52) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:58) —————–
David B: is a session long decline or rally session be viewed differently because this was on a friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:00) —————–
David B: was the market discounting thursday the unemployment report is part of the rally for friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:01) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:02) —————–
David B: if the fed did not speak and it was just the job number we may not have rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: yes
Mark G: if Fed signaled a policy change with respect to balance sheet, we may be heading up near term still/
—————– (01/05/2019 10:06) —————–
Mark G: longer term – up or down retracing all of Trump rally
—————– (01/05/2019 10:08) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: WDFC big run up in 2018, earnings we’d
ljr iPad: Wednesday
—————– (01/05/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: Has the correlation with bonds over the last few days showing mony moving out and into stocks?
Mark G: k
David B: money
—————– (01/05/2019 10:12) —————–
ljr iPad: AAPL
—————– (01/05/2019 10:13) —————–
ljr iPad: buyable low?
David B: GE,SYMC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: UA,WDC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:27) —————–
ljr iPad: for wdfc is there an upper target or objective?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:28) —————–
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (01/05/2019 10:33) —————–
David B: MSFT
ljr iPad: FB, MSFT
—————– (01/05/2019 10:35) —————–
ljr iPad: MDB
—————– (01/05/2019 10:44) —————–
David B: bears markets usually take months and possibly years to change. Wouldn’t one want to look at the odds that this is going to resolve back down? and if not does that mean we were never in a bear market?
David B: bear market
—————– (01/05/2019 10:46) —————–
ljr iPad: thx for today.
—————– (01/05/2019 10:47) —————–
David B: will we know that shortly or could take weeks?
Mark G: if the low 2317 is retested would the time matter – the longer it’s delayed the likelier to break lower?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:51) —————–
David B: how do you think earnings plays into the overall market. is the market expecting the worst with no growth?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:53) —————–
Bill G: If the mkt makes a new low shortly.\, more room for a larger rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:54) —————–
Mark G: that is different from retesting a Feb prior low – the longer it took the liklier the break lower became
David B: does gold have a correlation with stocks or is it just like bonds?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:57) —————–
Bill G: How much lower than the recent low can still be considered only a test of that low?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:59) —————–
David B: can any news events or things the market is concern about change a market on a dime from a bear market to bullish or the opposite. Like we ar seeing with the fed and china
David B: are
—————– (01/05/2019 11:02) —————–
Bill G: thanks
Mark G: valuation crowd is saying at 2350 earnings could be zero so we may not go down more unless earnings are negative
—————– (01/05/2019 11:07) —————–
Mark G: :)
David B: it seems like now they are buying the dips where before they were selling rallies?
—————– (01/05/2019 11:09) —————–
David B: yes so they are no accumulative?
David B: not
David B: ok
David B: Thanks
Mark G: thx much
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2536.75 | 2537.00 |
| …would target | 2543.50 | 2543.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2524.00 | 2524.50 |
| …would target | 2515.50 | 2516.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.