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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s gap up to 2505.50 had already suggested buyers weren’t strong-handed, because it had held a 61.8% retracement back to Friday’s late high. Firming overnight up to 2512.50 held within the range for noise to suggest nothing different. And Monday’s open overlapped the morning’s 2504.50 bias-up target through the first 3 15-minute checkpoints to suggest that trending wasn’t likely.
None of which prevented dropping down to 2482.75, not even the triggered 2495.50 bias-up signal. It’s not trending, if it’s contained entirely within a prior leg — in this case, Friday afternoon’s last downleg. The drop was retraced to within 2 ticks of the open’s 2510.00 high, still being only noise within the range, albeit a sizeable range.
That bounce failed, too, retesting the already-filled gap back to Friday’s close at 2487.00. But the balance of the session only bounced choppily back to Sunday night and Monday’s 2505.05 opens, still reflecting weak-handed sponsorship… Until the final minutes, which dipped to 2488.00 and snapped back up to 2513.00, still ending the day at Sunday night and Monday’s opens.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR’S! CHARTROOM WILL RE-OPEN AT 6:00 ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still testing the 1.1500 buy signal Monday instead of extending higher doesn’t qualify as triggering it. But it also doesn’t reject the test, keeping it alive and credible for any new firming to extend higher intraday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another overnight probe of fresh highs retested the 1284.00 target that had been met already before Friday’s open, but not tested intraday. Monday also isolated its test of 1284.00 to the overnight. Still not rejecting the target’s test(s) suggests the rally intends to extend higher, next targeting 1319.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs Sunday night weren’t rejected Monday, regardless of Friday already having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least an eventual third higher close.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally breaking higher Monday morning is trying to resume the 145-08 buy signal that was first probed Thursday. Already extending to 146-09, It gets every benefit of the doubt for launching a new upleg, so long as pullbacks now hold 145-08 as support.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting the new week already trying to firm back to the 47.00 buy signal is less optimal than first completing a pullback to 43.35-44.15. The recovery attempt failed, still likelier to complete the pullback first.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite already fulfilling the decline’s 3.26 target last week, and retesting it into the weekend, Sunday night’s open gapped down and extended to fresh lows. A bottoming pattern remains likely..
Mid-day Update… The range persists.
Morning dip is retraced.
I had noted this morning that perhaps the most bullish development was probing under the 2495.50 bias-up signal when it was too late for sellers to gain traction for their effort. 
Trending was already going to be difficult. Not only for being a bias-up environment, although its bias-up target had been met, but also because the open had spent so much time overlapping the target.
Probing under 2495.50 to 2482.75 filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction. And the reward to patient buyers for absorbing the dip is this afternoon’s 2502.50 bias-up signal putting into play its 2510.00 bias-up target — already being met to within 3 ticks so it won’t become “unfinished business” in case of reversing down.
Sellers aren’t marginalized. All of today’s price action has developed within Friday’s last leg. Buyers have gained traction for their efforts by triggering bias-up, but their target is already met. And it’s only an inside day. Extending higher would have potential for trending to 2525.25. But exiting the bias environment in decline could still trend down through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy New Year! Markets are closed, of course. But futures resume trading normally overnight on Globex.
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2502.25 | 2502.50 |
| …would target | 2509.75 | 2510.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2483.00 | 2483.50 |
| …would target | 2476.25 | 2476.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.