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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…Marking time.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down held a test of Tuesday’s ~2626.00 low through the open and bounced. As did a mid-morning retest. Which usually on Fridays will have trapped sellers into getting squeezed for a bigger bounce through the close. But Friday’s retest of Tuesday’s low failed before the bias environment had lapsed, reflecting stronger-handed sponsorship. Two noon hour reversal attempts were facilitated by Friday Factors, but not exploited as the balance of the session trended back down to prior lows attacking 2597.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-down to a fresh low at 2595.50 and immediately began recovering. Hovering at or above 2616.00 began breaking lower before Europe’s opens, and extended through Europe’s opens, until touching 2602.00. Its 11-point reaction up has now been retraced entirely to pierce under 2601.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s close was a new low close, albeit still within the range of Monday’s prior intraday low. The latter aspect keeps alive potential for another bounce. But any delay should be only a formality while in the process of launching another downleg of the bigger picture’s ongoing decline. The resolution to this morning’s open could dictate whether the near-term resolution includes another bounce. Leaving a gap outstanding won’t be predictive.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2608.50 would be likely to trigger the 2606.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2599.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Saturday Review recording (for 12/15/18) …Mind the gap.
Trending down to greet the weekend at recent lows isn’t in itself bearish. But that defines yesterday’s trend and its result. Bearish would be the panoply of characteristics to the downtrending, combined with this being the third test of a critical price level. And bearish would be the potential for resolving down aggressively without further delay.
This week’s Saturday Review describes the bigger picture that led here and which defines this price level’s relevance, along with the possibility of a counter-trend bounce. (Friday’s Market Wrap discusses that session’s setups and signals.)
Watch Friday’s post-market Wrap recording here.
CLICK HERE TO WATCH SATURDAY REVIEW
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order (the last 8 are from this week’s Barron’s article Top 10 Stock Picks for 2019):
WDC, MU, FDX, ROKU, NKE, ALLY, GOOG, AAPL, BAC, BLK, CAT, DDAIF, DAL, ET
transcript
—————– (12/15/2018 09:33) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
Mark G: gm
—————– (12/15/2018 09:49) —————–
jp: gm
—————– (12/15/2018 10:02) —————–
Mark G: extending down to low 2500 atbthis stage would unlikly recover to 2600 any time soon?
—————– (12/15/2018 10:05) —————–
David B: Does the spread between the cash and futures narrower or wider mean anything?
—————– (12/15/2018 10:09) —————–
David B: options expiration week is one of the wild cards this week with the fed and possible goverment shutdown?
Bill G: You consider any rally from here to be just temporary?
—————– (12/15/2018 10:12) —————–
Bill G: Perhaps a Xmas rally into early Jan?
—————– (12/15/2018 10:13) —————–
David B: what happens if no rate cut or he walks back next year?
—————– (12/15/2018 10:18) —————–
David B: WDC
—————– (12/15/2018 10:19) —————–
lloyd: MU, FDX – earnings thurs after close
David B: is ROKU a january candidate?
lloyd: (sorry TUES after close)
lloyd: NKE – earnings thurs after close. thanks
lloyd: i will watch recording.
—————– (12/15/2018 10:28) —————–
Adam: Was there a market wrap last night?
—————– (12/15/2018 10:32) —————–
David B: it seems like this is a market where rallies are being sold. Is there something that will tell us if it starts to be market on buy the dips?
David B: Yes
—————– (12/15/2018 10:37) —————–
David B: will we know strong or weak buyers?
—————– (12/15/2018 10:41) —————–
Mark G: thx much
David B: AMAT
Bill G: That’s the 2018 list
—————– (12/15/2018 10:43) —————–
Bill G: y
—————– (12/15/2018 10:56) —————–
Bill G: The guy who made that list only looked at the first seven letters in the alphabet?
David B: Thanks
Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link – NEW LINK
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2602.50 | 2606.50 |
| …would target | 2612.50 | 2616.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2589.75 | 2593.75 |
| …would target | 2582.00 | 2586.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s gap down held Tuesday’s ~2626.00 low through the open and bounced. Friday’s mid-morning low held a retest of Tuesday’s low by 3 points, and bounced again. Not only one, but two tests of a relevant support, and both tests holding. Usually on Fridays, the “try, try again” setup only traps its sponsorship into a bigger bounce through the close.
Except that Friday’s second test of Tuesday’s low failed before the bias environment lapsed. Sellers were the stronger-handed. Two noon hour opportunities to prove otherwise — which Friday Factors always allow — weren’t exploited as the balance of the session trended back down to prior lows attacking 2597.00.
A hold-short was compelling, other than it being over a weekend and not just during daily maintenance. The bigger picture discussion in this weekend’s Saturday Review defines the risk and potential reward.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.