members-only
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday night’s relentless downtrending to test 2729.00 was relatively shallow. 
But it still formed a common setup that is vulnerable to forming a substantive low. That could have developed during the open, but for Trump/China trade tweet that triggered a spike up to 2741.00.
The spike was retraced almost as quickly as it had developed, and continued lower to attack 2723.00. Exiting the bias environment back above its entry isolated the lower probe. The delayed effect was the same, launching a rally up to 2754.50, probing 2-week old highs.
The final hour’s dip retraced back under the noon hour’s 2742.00 high and tested the afternoon bias environment’s 2738.00 low. Closing any lower would have invalidated the traction gained by having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour even higher. Retesting Thursday’s high is likely Friday morning — if not also trending above it — so long as a deeper pullback is avoided, or at least erased before the open. Extending the rally would next target 2768.00-2770.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not rejecting but hovering Thursday at the 1.1400 resistance tested by Wednesday’s rally suggests that a low is forming, and that pullbacks will likely recover to fresh highs.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s surge tried overnight to extend higher but spent Thursday hovering around the surge’s highs, keeping alive potential for dropping back under 1220.50 to resume the decline.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat but choppy ranging Thursday didn’t confirm Wednesday’s surge as having gained traction, so almost any initial weakness Friday would be likely to extend down intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already more than one session beyond the 139-22 sell signal being rendered moot, rallying Wednesday night probed fresh highs. Which also reinstates the 139-22 sell signal if triggered — which Thursday’s reaction down from gapping up is threatening to attack.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An aggressive blip-down to fresh lows into Thursday’s open was recovered back up into the range above last Friday’s close to continue forming a bottom. Reacting back up to Wednesday’s highs is threatening to launch a rally leg by closing any higher.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that enabled its reaction down to hold a test of the 4.44 buy signal, recovering to test the 4.63 confirmation and resume the rally targeting fresh highs above 5.00.
Mid-day Update… Sitting pretty.
Holding recovery to fresh post-open highs.
This morning’s dip to at least test the 2727.75 bias-down target ultimately probed it 4-1/2 points lower.
Nevertheless, its test was isolated — the 10:15 2736.00 print and the 10:30 2739.25 print were recovered as the bias environment lapsed from 11:30-noon.
Its buyers were rewarded by probing fresh session highs up to 2742.00. And now the market awaits the 2:00 FOMC Minutes.
The minimum likely reward is to probe above yesterday’s 2745.00 high. Hesitation can be considered as pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and could contribute to probing well above yesterday’s high. Having said that, an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down has room to retest 2727.75 before suggesting a deeper pullback may be underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Fed speaker is close enough to the open to be an influence. The post-open PMI tends to influence price action when released privately to its institutional subscribers, and that price reaction tends to extend or repeat when released publicly several minutes later.
John Williams Speaks
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2740.50 | 2741.00 |
| …would target | 2746.75 | 2747.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2730.25 | 2730.75 |
| …would target | 2724.75 | 2725.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.