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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Seasonal bullishness finally arrives.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s price action was contained entirely within Tuesday’s 2632.00-2671.00 range, essentially qualifying it as another inside day. So was Tuesday — Thursday was closed. Any other session would have considered this sequence to be bearish, and closing at Friday’s 2628.00 intraday low would have been a compelling hold-short, especially for still not rallying out of the 2635.00 test, and despite still being above the 2626.00 overnight low. But that predictability is undermined by the evaporating volume. So, the late 13-point slide back under the 2631.00 open didn’t qualify for a hold-short through the early close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open surged 10 points into a narrow consolidation under 2640.00. Later firming again to attack 2646.00 hovered under Friday’s late-morning high. Surging into and out of Europe’s opens has touched 2666.00, just 5 points under Tuesday/Wednesday’s highs. Its reaction down has been consolidating at 2658.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Any delay in recovering coming out of the weekend would have made a retest of the recent 2603.00 likelier. The overnight rally doesn’t reverse the trend up — it’s not even any likelier to extend higher post-open, as seasonal bullishness ended with absorbing Friday’s drop — but it does create room to expend post-open selling pressures before signaling the decline is extending. And extending higher is possible, as is absorbing more backing-and-filling first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2652.00 would be likely to exceed the 2645.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2637.50 | 2638.00 |
| …would target | 2644.50 | 2645.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2627.00 | 2627.25 |
| …would target | 2620.50 | 2620.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s retest of the 1.1425 sell signal as resistance was repeated Thursday, before resolving down aggressively overnight. Gapping down Friday under Tuesday’s 1.1380 low extended down only slightly intraday, but into the afternoon anyway, which often ensure at least probing a fresh low on Monday morning.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Hovering just under Wednesday’s surge finally broke lower ahead of Friday’s open, which extended back down to the 1220.50 sell signal. Its test is holding, so far, but its break at any time would be credible for extending down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce never extended higher but delayed its reaction down until Thursday night, then compensated by plunging through its 14.32 sell signal. Friday’s open attacked 14.15 momentarily, reacting up to only attack the sell signal as resistance.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction down from Tuesday’s fresh highs had left no “unfinished business” above, but also didn’t reverse momentum down. Probing fresh highs Friday retraced back into Tuesday’s range, still neither creating nor leaving unfinished business above, but also not reversing momentum down.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s plunge required a retest to fresh lows under 53.05, just as did the prior Tuesday’s plunge, regardless of the interim bounce’s degree and duration. The wait was less, but still substantial as an interim bounce up to 55.85 plunged Thursday night to 50.55. An Island reversal would form from gapping up, but the trend otherwise remains down.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing under the 4.38 sell signal was isolated between Wednesday’s close and Friday’s open, so closing above 4.59 would signal a probe of fresh highs above 4.90 underway.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday was essentially another inside day compared to Tuesday, ranging exclusively under Wednesday’s other inside day.
Any other session would have considered this to be bearish, and closing at intraday lows would have been a compelling hold-short, especially for still not rallying out of the 2635.00 test.
But lower participation undermines that predictability. So, the late 13-point slide back to and through the 2631.00 open didn’t qualify for a hold-short. Any delay in recovering Monday makes a retest of the recent 2603.00 likelier.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW DUE TO THE HOLIDAY.
chaRTroom will re-open at 6:00 pm ET Sunday with Globex.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Monday’s two Fed surveys has a track record for influencing price action. But any reaction to the pre-open report should be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET