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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s 1.1425 sell signal was retested as resistance overnight and into Wednesday’s open, and still being tested through the session by an inside day which neither confirms nor invalidates the signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning attacking 1231.00, but essentially hovering under Monday’s 1228.00 high. The 1220.50 sell signal remains active.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning at 14.55 to test another “higher prior low” and gap. A break back under 14.32 is now needed to reverse the trend back down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s fresh highs reacted down Wednesday morning to hover just under Monday’s 139-24 prior highs, without reversing momentum down or invalidating the upside momentum.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
It’s still too soon for any credible bottoming to develop when Tuesday’s plunge requires at least being probed to fresh lows. That didn’t prevent gapping up to retrace Tuesday’s late downleg from 54.30, back into Tuesday’s mid-day range, and then extending higher to test 55.85. But the inside day does not reverse momentum up.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending Tuesday’s recovery overnight tested the gap back to last Wednesday’s 4.83 close, but had backed off already pre-open to avoid filling the gap intraday. An intraday gap fill remains likely, especially so long as 4.38 holds as support through the close.
Mid-day Update… Holding up, still.
Still testing yesterday’s highs.
This morning’s 2661.00 bias-up target had held 3 tests through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Fresh highs were still likely to test what would have been its 2668.75 renewed bias-up signal. Which the bias environment exit did, up to 2671.25.
Similar to Fridays, the morning’s bias was likely to persist through the noon hour, ahead of tomorrow’s illiquidity. Reacting down into the noon hour only attacked this afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal before triggering no-bias. The window’s 2671.50 bias-up signal can be tested.
Back under 2662.00 would still be credible for reversing momentum down, especially when the bias environment begins lapsing. Otherwise, fresh highs would next target 2677.75.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 22, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s Thanksgiving, and U.S. markets are closed for the holiday. Globex closes early, and then re-opens normally.
Globex early close
1:15 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2671.25 | 2671.50 |
| …would target | 2677.50 | 2677.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2661.75 | 2662.00 |
| …would target | 2655.25 | 2655.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Not rejecting overnight bounce.
Rallying overnight from its initial dip to 2632.25 had recovered to attack 2660.00 through Europe’s opens. Its reaction down was recovered ahead of pre-open econ reports up to 2667.00. Still another reaction down attacked the 2650.50 bias-up signal as support post-open, which held through 10:15.
This is a bias-up environment. Its 2661.00 bias-up target has been probed three times post-open, most recently up to 2666.00. But it wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, so no higher highs is required.
That said, probing higher anyway is possible, up to 2668.75 if not also to test 2678.00. Like the pre-weekend Friday Factors, the morning’s bias signal can persist through the noon hour ahead of illiquidity. Again, neither is required, and back under 2656.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back down — while participation and volume evaporate ahead of the holiday.