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Mid-day Update… Bottom, or bounce?
Buyers leveraging the trapped shorts.
This morning’s bias-down signal triggered despite having been recovered from testing its bias-down target. 
So, the bias-down target’s retest was put into play, producing fresh lows down to 2671.25. And producing the opportunity for a second consecutive close under prior lows that would put into play the next lower objective.
That disappeared in a hurry. The bias environment lapsed just above its 2691.25 bias-down signal, isolating the interim probe under prior lows. Either it was another temporary corrective bounce, or else sellers were done.
It does seem that they were done.
Extending higher into the noon hour peaked at 2710.00 before dipping back down to 2691.50 (1 tick short of the morning’s bias-down signal). The afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-down signal’s test was recovered in time not only to avoid triggering it, but also in time to test the 2711.00 bias-up signal. Which triggered.
Its 2718.00 bias-up target is being exceeded up to what would have been the 2729.00 renewed bias-up target at 2729.00. This is the sort of pattern — failed attempt to confirm the downtrend — that can be rewarded by a relentless intraday rally. The 2760.00 area isn’t necessarily in-play, but its test wouldn’t be surprising so long as another drop doesn’t break back under 2711.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s Services report is low-profile and not reliable for influencing price action, although a surprise would. Meanwhile, the session’s other reports are also not high-profile or influential, but the late-morning Fed speaker could get a reaction.
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Quarterly Services Report (Advance)
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
11:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2709.75 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2706.75 | 2718.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2694.50 | 2695.50 |
| …would target | 2686.00 | 2687.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Too late to break?
Pre-open drop having trouble extending.
The open was greeted in scare-mode, having slid from 2710.00 to probe Wednesday’s low down to 2682.00 pre-open. Which was new sentiment for the overnight, since the only other aggressive overnight dip had held support, well above Wednesday’s low.
Late breaks from an overnight range are often false. Sometimes only so false as to retest the range before resuming the breakout, but often reversing back through the range in the opposite direction. Last night’s pattern qualifies as a range for being contained within yesterday’s late bounce, but it was a very wide range.
Anyway, the post-open bounce back into the range up to 2698.00 has been reversed back under yesterday’s low. That’s the original breakout direction, and not back up through the overnight range. The 2691.25 bias-down signal triggered. Its 2681.25 bias-down target was met already when the open blipped down to 2677.75.
The bias-down target can be retested. And fresh lows can be probed. But not already recovering into the bias environment lapsing would suggest that 2654.00 and 2635.00 are in-play, too.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Restless night.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s probe of fresh lows down to 2711.00 was recovered and reversed to attack 2745.00 through Wednesday’s open. All of which was retraced and reversed through the afternoon bias environment down to fresh lows at 2686.25. Which is within 1 tick of the next lower objective at 2685.00-2686.00. Its reaction up to 2723.50 was largely retraced down to 2697.00 before the close. WedEX triggered actively bearish, although no “unfinished business” below was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
2-3 wide swings during Globex have all fit within yesterday’s late range. The reaction down from Wednesday’s late surge extended down to within 3 points of the intraday low, repeatedly probing 1-2 points under this morning’s 2691.25 bias-down signal. Rallying 27 points to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2717.00 bias-up target stopped 6-1/2 points short of retesting Wednesday’s late surge. Reacting down 23 points to 2694.00 has bounced again to 2710.00, testing the resistance of this morning’s 2709.00 bias-up signal.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Wednesday’s 2686.00 low fulfilled the next lower objective of the week-long pullback from last Wednesday night’s 2818.00 high. The leg is testing the pre-election pullback low at 2700.00, while its low retraces 61.8% of the three-week old 2603.00 low, and fills the gap back to the low session’s close. There is plenty of support, and no nearby or recently created attractions below, so a rally is free to begin. Not exploiting the opportunity to rally today would suggest the decline intends to extend to its next lower targets at 2654.00 and 2635.00. Meanwhile, the bearish WedEX could be inverted by opening high enough Thursday could still trigger a late passive bullish WedEX, or else confirm a bearish outlook for tomorrow afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2705.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2709.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2711.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.