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Mid-day Update… Try, try again?
Bounce now opens the door to a reversal.
This morning’s decline to 2895.00 was recovered back above the morning’s 2899.00 bias-down signal. Twice. Two probes under it, recovered back above it. And the bias environment was within view of lapsing. Sellers were done, as I described during the pre-open Market Tour.
Reversing up almost relentlessly since then has stopped 1 tick short of its potential up to 2910.00. It’s also this afternoon’s bias-up signal, which did not trigger.
An inflection point would trigger above 2908.75, and could produce no-bias trending . Otherwise, back under 2905.75 would start to signal the bounce had ended. The vulnerability to resuming the decline is less likely than simply drifting lower into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 19, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed for Good Friday, and coincidentally Passover begins at sundown. Volatility and liquidity could begin to evaporate Thursday afternoon ahead of the holidays. Meanwhile, two reports are scheduled, but there is no Globex session to react.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2906.50 | 2910.00 |
| …would target | 2911.50 | 2915.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2897.00 | 2900.50 |
| …would target | 2890.50 | 2894.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Weak-handed buyers.
Recovery holds resistance, reaction breaks support.
The overnight drop to significant support at 2892.00-2894.00 “lower prior highs” had blipped-down to 2889.50. 
That was a rubber band stretch, which snapped back up to probe the 2908.75 bias-up signal by 3 points before the open.
Yet another open being greeted by an overnight rally, albeit this time a rally from negative territory. Regardless, yet again, post-open sentiment took a 180-degree turn. The open was narrowly consolidated around 2908.75 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And the consolidation broke lower to test the 2899.00 bias-down signal.
No-bias triggered cleanly, but breaking under 2899.00 through 10:30 invalidated that. This is an invalidated no-bias environment. No requirement for the bias-down signal to define its lower-end, no requirement for an offsetting test of the bias-up signal.
After extending down to 2895.00, a bounce is now testing 2899.00 as resistance. But is it too late to extend down? Is strong-handed sponsorship done for the day, ahead of the 3-day weekend? Back above 2901.50 would start to signal another bounce. Otherwise, back under 2897.25 would resume the decline.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The feeling is mutual.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s rally from 2911.50 had been contained within Tuesday morning’s drop, but it extended to greet the open above Tuesday’s highs at 2923.00. The ongoing intraday distributive pattern did what patterns do, and once again reversed momentum down. This time was sudden, steep and substantial, producing the outside day that Tuesday’s reversal stopped short of being. The open touched Tuesday’s 2904.50 low, and the several more lows extended to 2898.50 through the afternoon’s bias environment. A pre-close bounce to 2906.50 started failing into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s slide wasn’t just a domestic incident. It set the tone for Asia and Europe time frames, too. Already failing into Wednesday’s close, the decline eventually collapsed down to 2895.00 and then extended down to 2892.00 by midnight. Firming 5 points through Europe’s opens suddenly reacted down to 2889.50. But only momentarily as its reaction has snapped back up, testing the resistance of yesterday’s “higher prior lows” up to 2902.00. That’s also testing unchanged, which is also resistance.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Other than yesterday’s intraday reaction down from the open’s fresh high, the market has not been in a multi-session decline. A bullish Isolation setup cannot form. So, opening back above yesterday’s low, and isolating its probe to the overnight, wouldn’t necessarily earn the reward of retesting yesterday’s highs — retesting yesterday’s highs will require a different setup, like gapping up back above yesterday’s 2908.50 afternoon bias environment high. Meanwhile, trying to form an Isolation setup when an Isolation setup won’t qualify diminishes the current recovery attempt. It keeps alive the potential for an intraday retest of 2892.00-2894.00 “lower prior highs” that was tested overnight. Regardless, rallying or declining this morning will find thinning afternoon volume makes it difficult to extend the morning’s trend, and easier to retrace some or all of it before the close.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2903.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2899.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2897.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2892.00 would be likely to exceed the 2894.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2889.25.