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Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/20/18) …Watch that next step.
Was the past week’s choppy wide range only a pause before resuming the downside storm? Or, did it form a base to launch a steep bounce, if not also a recovery? The former is likelier, but the latter has a path. We discuss both, and the characteristics to notice either one playing out, during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MCD, CAT, AMZN, GOOGL, SQ, GRUB, BA, GE, INTC, TEAM, AMD, V, VZ, ACBFF, TLRY
transcript
—————– (10/20/2018 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
jp 2: gm
Bill G: gm
Adam: gm
David B: Good Morning
Mark G: gm
—————– (10/20/2018 09:56) —————–
David B: overcoming a bullish or bearish wedex is that usually strong hands?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:03) —————–
Bill G: What is the margin below the 2712 area that is only a probe of that lowand not a new leg dn?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:04) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks plz: MCD, CAT, GRUB,
ljr iPad: BA
Bill G: ok
ljr iPad: all earnings this week. TEAM worked out well
—————– (10/20/2018 10:08) —————–
David B: AMZN,GOOGL
David B: GE,INTC
ljr iPad: AMD, V. I’ll watch recording
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (10/20/2018 10:14) —————–
Mark G: SQ – seems to be dragged down by the mkt downturn, any hope for getting back to the high?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:39) —————–
David B: many of these high profile earnings this week will show us in near term where the market is going?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:41) —————–
David B: VZ – was 55 a big area of resistance for a breakout?
David B: verizon
—————– (10/20/2018 10:49) —————–
Mark G: thx much
David B: cn you answer my question
David B: can
Bill G: Have a good one
—————– (10/20/2018 10:51) —————–
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2775.00 | 2777.00 |
| …would target | 2783.50 | 2785.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2762.25 | 2764.25 |
| …would target | 2756.75 | 2758.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
No decline, collapse or plunge ever resumed — the noon hour and on was spent fluctuating around unchanged at 2772.00. But buyers gained no traction for their efforts, and the Ascending Triangle’s retracement was retained.
Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence was intact, after the overnight and morning’s rally was absorbed. A more obvious bearish influence is likely to develop at Monday’s open, regardless of opening flat or gapping in either direction.
A very late sell signal triggered and produced several points through the close. But not to fresh lows, which would have made a compelling hold-short. Oversold RSIs at the high will be Monday’s likely attraction if no decline, collapse or plunge has yet resumed.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US FOR SATURDAY REVIEW AT 9:30 AM ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A slightly lower low overnight was recovered to trade flat-to-higher intraday Friday, still leaving outstanding the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s early probe under the prior two sessions’ lows wasn’t repeated Friday. It wasn’t rejected either, so any initial weakness coming out of the weekend could still get a benefit of the doubt for extending down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping Thursday to test uptrending support at 14.60 was not broken, as Friday bounced back to attack 14.75. But momentum didn’t reverse up, and its reaction attacked 14.60 again, whose break lower would still be likely to extend.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s break under 138-04 wasn’t likely to extend, and was recovered well before the close. But not reversed back above 138-18, which would initially target 140-26. Friday’s dip back under 138-04 also didn’t extend, but wasn’t recovered. So, opening lower Monday can still extend, albeit unlikely without another corrective bounce.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s inside day didn’t reject the ongoing decline, which remains intact unless a close above 69.80 starts to reverse the trend up.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing Friday avoided confirming Thursday’s break under the 3.26 sell signal. Another attempt to reverse down would be just as credible, so long as 3.31 isn’t recovered through a close.