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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Suddenly, in the midst of mutli-session collapse, Friday produced an “inside day.” It session was contained entirely within Thursday’s range. So, Friday’s range was already narrower than any one of the declining sessions that preceded it.
Yet, Monday produce another inside day, even narrower than Friday.
Inside days don’t offer much predictive value, especially not without trending intraday. And Monday didn’t trend intraday. Its initial dip held the morning’s 2751.75 bias-down target. Its session highs repeatedly attacked and tested 2777.00 resistance. Dropping from the range’s upper-end to its lower-end through the close got to 2749.00, but not until after the close when its test was irrelevant.
An Ascending Triangle had begun forming that could still break higher. But breaking higher at this stage would be suspicious without actually gapping up above the pattern’s upper-end. Extending down without delay to at least retest Thursday’s 2712.00 low is no less likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break lower was retraced Sunday night, for Monday to test last week’s highs as resistance. The gap back down to Friday’s close doesn’t require being filled, but it’s likely so long as intraday probes above last week’s highs hold as resistance. And filling the gap below is likely to resume the trend’s reversal down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not confirming Thursday’s surge didn’t prevent extending it anyway, which Sunday night did to touch the lower-end of the 1236.00-1241.00 target area. Its upper-end need not be touched before reversing down, although that’s likely.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s rally retested the prior upleg’s 14.80 objective whose test had reacted down aggressively in the interim. Its resistance can be overlapped without actually breaking higher, but breaking higher would be credible for extending.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still hovering Sunday night and Monday morning above the 138-04 sell signal that served to support Friday’s ranging at fresh bounce highs, with no further upside requirement or attraction, makes any immediate weakness Tuesday likely to extend down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s rally in reaction to news of tighter supplies did not invalidate that Thursday’s sell signal was already confirmed by a second consecutive lower close. At least an eventual third lower close is required before a rally can be credible. In fact, Sunday night’s gap up was reversed back into negative territory Monday morning.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night helped to confirm that Friday’s lower close was disqualified from confirming Thursday’s break under the 3.23 sell signal. And still bouncing Monday morning does make the filling gap back up to Wednesday’s 3.28 close likelier before resuming the decline.
Mid-day Update… Another spring.
Morning bounce collapses, almost. Recovers, almost.
This morning’s 2751.75 bias-down target recovered back up through the 2769.75 open to attack 2775.00. 
That’s 23 points, which its 20-point reaction down almost retraced entirely.
And now this afternoon’s 2773.00 bias-up signal is being probed by fresh session highs to attack 2777.00. But it’s too late to trigger bias-up, so its test is likely to define this window’s upper-end.
Probing the 2773.00 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment requires being retraced, if not also reversed back down. But not necessarily today. Dipping back to 2773.00 when the bias window starts lapsing could resolve in either direction — reversing back down, or resuming the rally. Back under 2769.25 would start to signal the resolution is down.
Resuming the rally is possible, because a multi-session Ascending Triangle is forming. A false break higher is possible, and would target the 2800.00 area or higher, while still being likely to resolve down to new lows. Full-blown recovery is still not being considered.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The delay in JOLTS is interesting, as it usually comes the week following Employment Situation report. Confirming or contradicting the payrolls miss could duplicate or retrace the original reaction. Tuesday’s other reports are neither influential nor high-profile. High-profile quarterly earnings continue, including IBM and MS.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2770.50 | 2773.00 |
| …would target | 2778.75 | 2781.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2758.50 | 2761.00 |
| …would target | 2850.50 | 2753.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.