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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initial weakness Sunday night didn’t extend Monday, as the session ranged narrowly sideways, still likely to resolve down to lower objectives.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow, choppy ranging Monday doesn’t confirm or undermine the pattern, which remains likely to resolve lower targets beginning at 1272,50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s very narrow ranging would normally suggest the first trending attempt will reverse back into the range. But beginning explosively, either up or down, would be much likelier to trend in that direction.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Monday consolidated Friday’s collapse to fresh lows. It also avoided confirming Friday’s breakout that would otherwise require at least one more lower close. But the decline’s momentum otherwise remains intact for at least an intraday probe lower.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night bounced to test the 68.40 buy signal, but its resistance sent price back down into Thu-Fri’s range at 67.33. A second test of the buy signal would be much more reliable for extending higher intraday.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A fresh low at 2.75 Monday morning snapped up slightly to 2.81, which is too shallow to signal momentum reversing up. But a second consecutive higher close on Tuesday would suggest at least that a bottom is forming.
Mid-day Update… Holiday hold-up.
Volatility missing along with volume.
A choppy, albeit narrowly ranging morning held between 2878.00-2884.00 until the noon hour. Nothing much changed except to test the afternoon’s 2877.00 bias-down signal, which held. This is a no-bias environment.
This afternoon’s no-bias window inhibits extending down to this morning’s lower objectives at 2771.00 and 2864.75, as 2877.00 should define the window’s lower-end. Breaking lower before the bias window begins lapsing would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. Breaking lower any later would be free to extend.
Meanwhile, today’s lower volume keeps the pattern vulnerable to another bounce, for the same reasons it inhibits trending. Another bounce would target a retest of the morning’s highs while still being likely to resolve down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 11, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s jobs openings report can be influential to price action, especially when the Employment Situation report was itself influential. Friday’s report had a late bearish effect, so confirming its data could repeat the effect.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2885.00 | 2885.50 |
| …would target | 2890.75 | 2891.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2876.25 | 2877.00 |
| …would target | 2870.75 | 2871.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Turnabout.
Both bias parameters rejected, again.
No new sponsorship greeted the relentless overnight uptrend. That already had made reversing down likely. Then tests of both bias-up parameters — the 2886.75 bias-up target and then its 2881.50 bias-up signal — were rejected through 10:15. Like Friday morning’s rejection of both bias-down parameters, offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is in-play at 2871.00 and 2864.75.
None of which is necessarily reliable for timing — one of Friday’s upside objectives wasn’t met until last night’s 2886.75 high, and retested this morning by a blip-up to 2888.25. So far, the reaction down has only touched 2878.00.
But the signal’s directional context suggests resolving down. That comports with the Market Tour discussion, which described how the session’s lower volume would make trending beyond the range more difficult than just bouncing around within it.
So, a retest of 2888.25 can’t be dismissed, more so back above 2883.50 (being touched now). Back under 2879.50 would signal the reaction down had resumed.