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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Retesting Wednesday’s oversold RSIs at its 2877.25 low had room for noise down to 2875.00. Probing it down to 2868.00 may 
have been too much to absorb before extending down to 2857.00. Or, probing it down to 2868.00 may have been absorbed. The difference is in whether its reaction back up was able to close above a relevant resistance.
It didn’t.
2880.25 was still being overlapped into the close, after 2884.50 had contained the afternoon rally. So, rather than recover these levels to essentially isolate sellers, buyers expended as much energy as possible while still not gaining traction for their effort.
Of course, there’s another difference, made possible by the heightened sentiment ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. If recovering relevant resistance is simply delayed, then Friday’s open can serve by proxy. But the standard is higher, like gapping up above Thursday morning’s 2893.00 high. And maintaining it. And extending it.
Meanwhile, Wednesday afternoon’s 2895.50 bias objective remains “unfinished business” above that could attract price higher, and facilitate a test of 2893.00. No unfinished business lies below, so trending down post-open anyway would be that much more bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s extension of Tuesday’s post-open bounce probed slightly higher overnight, but Thursday’s flat-to-lower ranging needs to represent the decline’s resumption to keep in-play lower objectives.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to attack 1213.00 Thursday was retraced entirely to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1203.00 close, and to maintain the likelihood for resolving down to fresh lows at 1272.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming up to 14.35 didn’t reach high enough for a retest of Tuesday’s gap down to neutralize its downside attraction.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s 143-02 low had held as support Wednesday, and launched a bounce back up to the 143-18 sell signal ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. That’s not high enough to greet the report from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The break under the 69.50 pullback limit extended down to 67.00 on Thursday’s (delayed) EIA report. Back above 68.40 would now signal momentum reversing up, targeting a retest of 71.20-71.40 to likely form a durable top.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already extended down Thursday 2.77 fulfills the minimum third lower close required by the confirmed breakout. The trend can extend down so long as 2.85 isn’t recovered.
Mid-day Update… Fallen and can’t get up.
Room for noise being probed.
This morning’s drop eventually extended down to 2869.00, well under the 2882.25 bias-down signal. Bias-down didn’t trigger, and noN-bias was narrowly avoided, but we gave it a benefit of the doubt anyway because of the 1-tick difference.
Room for noise under yesterday’s low down to 2875.00 was itself exceeded by 7 points down to 2869.00. A close-quarters Double Bottom bounced only to test 2878.00 into noon, and the noon hour’s exit tested 2868.00.
This afternoon’s 2871.00 bias-down signal has held its test to trigger no-bias. And now RSIs aren’t simultaneously oversold at the low. No timing window has yet recovered a relevant level like 2880.25 or 2884.50 to invalidate the decline. Back above 2875.25-2876.00 (being tested now) would start to signal a recovery underway. Back under 2870.00 would signal the recovery had failed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The monthly Employment Situation report is being released in a relative vacuum Friday morning with no other reports scheduled. There’s still a Fed speaker or two nearby, and their remarks can also keep volatility active, to the degree that either accentuates or contradicts the report .
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2882.25 | 2883.00 |
| …would target | 2887.50 | 2888.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2870.25 | 2871.00 |
| …would target | 2863.00 | 2863.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.