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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still overlapping the 1.1675 sell signal into Friday’s open immediately extended to a fresh pullback low testing 1.1600. Closing any lower would confirm the trend has reversed down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Cleanly triggering the 1207.50 sell signal Thursday didn’t extend down any deeper than Thursday afternoon’s 1202.00 low before rallying overnight to attack 1215.00. That reacted back down under 1207.50, which remains intact.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s 14.82 sell signal was probed that day down to 14.55, but no lower overnight. Friday was almost an inside day, but dipped lower into the afternoon, as the sell signal’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 18-tick discount from Sep]…. Thursday’s failure to reinstate Tuesday’s break lower to 144-10 was rewarded by extending the bounce into and out of Friday’s open up to 145-16. Closing back under 144-26 would trigger another attempt to resume the decline.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Coming to within a nickel of the 70.55 minimum bounce objective Thursday already created a reaction down without yet touching 70.55. It remains in-play, with potential to extend higher through 72.00, so long as 69.50 holds pullbacks.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing the 2.87 buy signal for a second consecutive close finally broke higher overnight, gapping up at Friday’s open and extending higher to 2.93. Leaving the gap outstanding below is not optimal to extending higher near-term, but it forms support below that helps to prevent a reversal down from extending.
Mid-day Update… Been here, downed that.
Back to ranging at the lows.
The open didn’t gap up above any relevant level (or gap up at all) to even try negating the traction sellers gained yesterday.
Lower lows were likely. None of which prevented surging at the open, but only to touch the 2907.50 bias-up signal — and then not to trigger it.
That put into play an offsetting test of the 2898.25 bias-down signal. The open had been greeted there. So, a test of it was in-play, but not testing it wouldn’t be required. It was tested anyway, as the bias window lapsed.
Extending lower during the noon hour tested unfinished business at 2892.25. Piercing it by 2 ticks was enough to launch a reaction attacking 2898.00, and to avoid triggering bias-down.
Sellers are probably done for the day. Buyers may be done, too, although there’s room up to the 2899.00 bias-up signal and then higher after the bias window starts lapsing. But even if thee’s a bounce back under 2893.75 would start to signal lower lows into the weekend, next targeting 2884.50 down to 2880.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 3, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy Labor Day. Stock markets are closed in the U.S.. Globex opens normally Sunday night, and trades through Monday morning, before re-opening normally Monday night. The Fed speaker isn’t likely to influence price action.
Globex open
Sunday 6:00 PM
Globex close
1:00 PM
Charles Evans speaks
2:30 PM ET
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2898.75 | 2899.00 |
| …would target | 2904.00 | 2904.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2894.00 | 2894.25 |
| …would target | 2887.75 | 2888.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Last-minute leaks.
Bias signal delayed at last-minute, again.
It happened yesterday morning, too, sort of. This morning was on its way to triggering no-bias, cleanly recovering above the 2989.25 bias-down signal by 10:15. 
That would have put into play an offsetting test of its 2907.50 bias-up signal.
In fact, 2907.50 was touched… within 3 minutes of 10:15. Suddenly, the clean no-bias invoked the grace period. And the grace period has held to trigger no-bias.
Yesterday morning the bias signal being tested within 3 minutes of 10:15 was the only bias signal that had been touched. That’s more common, resolving either in triggering the bias, or not triggering it. And not triggering it resolves either in no-bias or noN-bias.
This morning the bias signal that invoked the grace period is the second bias signal tested. Trending from one bias signal to the other entirely within the opening period is rare. It reflects as much sentiment as triggering a bias and trending to its target.
So, sellers were almost marginalized by failing at an attempt to trigger bias-down. Rewarding buyers so quickly forced them to confirm their control, which failed. Effectively sellers get a second chance by default.
An offsetting test of the 2898.25 bias-down signal is in-play. Having been tested already, it won’t become “unfinished business” if not met this morning. This is still a no-bias environment, so probing beyond either bias signal — extending any higher — would require being retraced.