members-only
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Retesting and re-retesting Monday night’s 2900.00 high ahead of Thursday’s open makes an eventual probe only a formality. Which might not seem credible after being under pressure throughout Thursday’s session. And which might be rejected anyway if Thursday’s 2886.00 support is breaking lower through Friday’s open.
Meanwhile, Thursday was the seventh consecutive session of intraday ranging, supported at or above 2880.00 or 2886.00. Extended narrowing ranges become vulnerable to breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.
So, fresh highs up to 2902.00-2911.00 would be vulnerable to reversing down, and dipping 2874.00-2876.00 could snap back up above highs. Testing either limit without reversing would become more vulnerable to extending in that direction, especially being a Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s impressive recovery from its early dip down to uptrending support that closed positive, failed to extend higher Thursday. Not for lack of trying, with the open having firmed. One day of consolidating the prior session’s Outside Day can be dismissed, but the rally must be underway into the weekend if the bottom is valid.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down into negative territory already failed to trigger an early buy signal. Extending down sharply intraday Thursday under the original 1301.50 buy signal makes the rally’s immediate resumption no less urgent to avoid another deep pullback intraday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thurdsay’s gap down under the 15.15 buy signal probed two week old lows down to 14.85. The pattern cannot tolerate any lower close. Only an immediate recovery would be credible for launching a new rally leg, and any delay would start making lower lows likelier.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s test and retest of the 148-16 buy signal had never triggered, and wasn’t attempted again on Thursday. Meanwhile, its pullback fell down to the lower-end of uptrending pivotal support, where any second consecutive lower close on Friday would resume the rally.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still not testing the 64.75 overnight highs, let alone the long outstanding 65.00 target, Thursday’s dip attacked the 63.20 pullback limit. Regardless of whether it is probed intraday, a higher close Friday may be the only near-term path to fulfill the pattern’s target.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from a position of strength. Positive territory was never probed. Its intraday pullback has satisfied any attraction below so that closing above 2.71 would new highs.
Mid-day Update… Downright slumber.
Lower lows still not trending down.
When this morning’s bias environment began lapsing, its relatively narrow 2892.00-2897.00 range broke lower. Sharply. Suddenly and steeply, but not substantially. Just 2-3 minutes of plunging to 2885.25 ended it. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest.
Recovering up to 2892.00 through the noon hour has resolved down, too. Just not substantially, only attacking the low to within 5 ticks, leaving its oversold RSIs outstanding.
Ratcheting lower and lower could be considered trending, if not contained within a prior window. Like this moring’s drop, which has only retraced to yesterday’s last 60-90 minute low. Not quickly rejecting its retest could replace 2902.00‘s attraction above with a collapse below. Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment rallying above 2892.00 would be credible for extending back to and through session highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 12, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is unusually sparse. The pre-open report is neither high-profile nor influential to price action, unlike the only post-open report. But no afternoon reports or speakers are scheduled that would help to keep alive volatility into the weekend.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2892.00 | 2895.75 |
| …would target | 2898.25 | 2902.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2882.00 | 2886.00 |
| …would target | 2877.00 | 2881.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.