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Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2688.50 | 2688.75 |
| …would target | 2693.75 | 2694.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2682.00 | 2682.25 |
| …would target | 2675.25 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Same old story.
Post-open pattern persists in poo-pooing pre-open pop-up.
Rallying 12-points overnight to 2698.00 had reacted down pre-open to 2693.50. There was still room to buy back above 2696.50 for a bounce to 2699.75-2700.75 and 2703.00. 
But the open collapsed. And breaking under 2692.25 signaled momentum reversing down.
Probing the 2696.25 prior high was singular and not complex, so no “new Globex trend extreme” was created that otherwise would have required intraday retest. And no “unfinished business above” was left outstanding. Also, the recent pullback was too shallow to be accumulation which could have refueled buyers.
First Trade and Market Tour both warned about all of those. But the most important point was the current pattern of rejecting overnight rallies. Last night’s rally was larger and more productive, but it was still vulnerable to reversing down. Which it has done.
Both the 2688.00 and 2692.50 bias-up parameters have been rejected by triggering no-bias. Offsetting tests of both the 2681.50 and 2675.50 bias-down parameters are in-play.
Last Wednesday did the same, except for triggering late bias-down, not clean. And its bias-down signal’s test was fulfilled already during the first hour. That has been outstanding since. Today’s is the same 2675.50, and it may also be left outstanding if the past week’s “lower prior highs” aren’t broken. But it’s still likely, so long as 2692.50 isn’t recovered.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Plot twist?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up held the lower-end of the 2688.00-2692.50 resistance buffer. Gapping up above its upper-end would have been likely to rally, if not the only path to a rally. Holding the lower-end’s test instead reacted down sharply to 2683.50 through the open. An offsetting test of the bias-down signal 2 points lower was left outstanding as the balance of the session fluctuated narrowly at its lows. The balance of the session, until its final minutes surged to attack 2688.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming through the Globex open recovered to 2688.00. Its resistance held until Europe’s opens were approaching. A blip-up to 2689.50 was retraced to test 2688.00, now support, which reversed up sharply to probe above 2692.50 by 3 ticks. Its reaction down probed under 2692.50 by 3 ticks and reversed up sharply, too. Now probing the 2696.25 prior high by 2 points.
If, then…
The names, dates, and places have changed. But, so far, it’s the same story: Overnight rally into resistance. The question is whether it will avoid the same ending of reacting down through the morning. The bullish setup has been the same all week — gap up above prior highs, i.e. the upper-end of 2688.00-2692.50 resistance. Gapping up would have to be maintained through the open, and preferably extended. This applies to any resistance being tested at the open, including the prior high. And new highs remain vulnerable to reversing down again from 2699.75-2700.75 and 2703.00, since the relatively shallow interim dip didn’t refuel buyers much — refueling that could have been done by briefly revisiting the 2681.50, 2679.00 and 2675.50 lower objectives. So, reversing down isn’t any less likely until 2703.00 is recovered through a relevant window.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2694.25 would be likely to also recover the 2692.50 bias-up target through 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2690.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2688.00 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s the last market tour of the year the last market wrap of the year is upcoming what’s going to happen in between a lot of interesting stuff it seems like because overnight we’ve got a rally back to and through prior highs now probing the highs recalled that yesterday morning and dropped after rejecting or by way of rejecting at least the overnight rally and 61.8% of the late Rally from Wednesday’s low so even though that held the test of the bicepsback down early enough there’s still a pattern in here that collapses that utterly collapses make it through the open make it to any relevant irrelevant level and marginalized this does not yet marginalize them all rightdoes this require a complete retracement not required but still likely until disproved which is of course interesting because there was an opportunity not yet entirely lost at if not reversing the decline that is off of or at least I am basically a 61:8 retracement of it up to 80 which is not yet tested but getting close Euro hire overnight extending its Breakout after having failed repeatedly through Friday making only a formality that there would be some larger bounds the objective and then all of that
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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2687.50 | 2688.00 |
| …would target | 2692.00 | 2692.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2681.00 | 2681.50 |
| …would target | 2675.00 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Words could only describe so much. But this picture of S&P futures since Wednesday afternoon’s low shows 
what the weekend’s impending illiquidity can do, and what it can prevent.
Reacting down from the overnight rally was entirely legitimate. That is an irrelevant timing window, so it can’t gain traction. And it greeted the open at the 2688.25 bias-up signal’s resistance. More so, the overnight rally was an extension of Wednesday’s late surge. It was only noise, having peaked at resistance of the afternoon bias environment’s high.
An entirely legitimate and fully expected reversal down. Pretty productive, too, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2681.50 bias-down signal. (Add it to 2679.00 and 2675.50 outstanding.)
But the drop stopped suddenly, and permanently for the day. Weekend illiquidity inhibits sponsorship, and promotes noise. Gapping up Friday above prior highs would be credible for extending higher into year-end — the same setup as every other day this week. Meanwhile, there briefly visiting the lower objectives is likelier, while being vulnerable to extending down even deeper.
As long as we’re sharing pictures, here’s another. We professionals consider the historical metrics that the rally has gone too far, which ironically adds bricks to the proverbial “Wall of Worry” keeping the rally alive. But, what do we know. Here’s an example of how popular the stock market rally has become among those whose ignorance is blissful:
The last time I recall seeing a non-analyst’s widely publicized opinion is 10 years ago:
I’ve noted on the following long-term EUR / USD chart where Gisele proclaimed that paying her millions of dollars would offend her:
That’s timing which many market analysts only wish they could match. And I’m not saying Kanye has Gisele’s expertise. But it’s too cold to measure miniskirts, so we’ll have to wonder whether the stock market’s chart will have taken a similar turn in several months.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.