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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2589.25 | 2588.00 |
| …would target | 2594.75 | 2593.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2581.25 | 2580.25 |
| …would target | 2576.00 | 2574.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS AFTER FRIDAY’S OPEN UNTIL NOON. ALSO, THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW IS CANCELLED.
WedEX had failed to trigger Wednesday. Thursday’s gap up above Wednesday’s range remedied the situation, triggering a passively bullish WedEX by proxy. It influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning, but not Friday morning.
A lot of other upside attractions were neutralized during Thursday’s tremendous intraday rally. And 87% of the drop from last Tuesday’s 2594.50 overnight high has been retraced in a relatively brief period of time since Wednesday morning’s 2555.50 low. Nothing prevents reacting down immediately.
But Thursday afternoon’s bias environment exit did already produce a 6-point dip into the close. And the intraday high came “only” within 1 point of fulfilling its 2590.50 bias-up target. The gap back up to last Wednesday’s ~2593.00 close and the “new Globex trend extreme” above it were somewhat attacked. Probing any higher would have potential to 2600.75.
The gap back down to Wednesday’s 2563.75 close requires being filled eventually. That specific level’s retest is already vulnerable to extending down sharply. So, any potential to retest the highs or at least to firm Friday afternoon would become unlikely if Thursday night or Friday morning were to dip too much.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s failure to confirm Tuesday’s breakout extended slightly lower into Thursday’s open, and essentially remained exclusively in negative territory intraday. Price was still contained within Tuesday’s range for a second consecutive session, suggesting that momentum hasn’t yet versed down — or else requires gapping down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming to range Thursday within the 1277.50-1280.50 range leaves the pattern vulnerable to break in either direction into the weekend, which would be credible for extending into next week.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly and extending slightly higher intraday was largely contained between 17.05-17.11 and remained vulnerable to closing under 16.95 and resuming the decline.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight didn’t help to confirm that Wednesday’s test of 154-02 would resolve up. Thursday’s narrow inside day at least avoided closing back under 153-22. Back under 153-00 would start to signal a retest of 151-16 or new lows under 150-16.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating narrowly for a second consecutive session Thursday essentially held the 55.35 pullback limit which keeps alive the 56.00-56.65 buy signal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted neither from a position of weakness nor strength. The session’s initial bounce was retraced to retest Wednesday and Thursday’s lows down to 3.05. Closing back above 3.12 would resume the rally, but there is otherwise room down to 2.97-3.00.
Mid-day Update… Running out of attractions above.
Detour powered by fumes.
Anticipation for today’s tax reform vote in the House (which just began). Reaction to five consecutive gaps down that held tests of 2563.75 support. 
Overkill and extension of a corrective bounce. A combination of these, and more. Whatever the catalyst to today’s rally, it has been productive.
And it has neutralized a lot of upside attractions. Gaps back up to Tuesday and Monday’s closes. Ineffectual pessimism and upside traction that had suggested the week’s decline would at least be corrected. And now the closest thing to an upside requirement — the gap back to last Wednesday’s 2590.50 close — is in-play as this afternoon’s bias-up target.
Meanwhile, resistance at 2588.00 is being influential. Earlier, resistance at 2584.25 was influential, too. Its 3-point pullback resolved up, but there’s no assurance now of a shallow pullback or its recovery. And the current pullback just exceeded 2 points.
There has yet to be a fresh high since signaling bias-up. It’s too late to reject the signal, until exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under its 2579.25 bias-down signal. Reversing down prematurely would be entirely credible for extending down anyway, and without limitation. Otherwise, there remains potential to new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar isn’t bare, but its reports are neither high-profile nor influential to price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET