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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2597.25 | 2594.00 |
| …would target | 2603.00 | 2600.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2589.00 | 2586.00 |
| …would target | 2583.50 | 2580.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending Wednesday wasn’t unlikely. It was unlikely to extend. And likely to be reversed. The morning’s gap down probed lower, albeit not all the way down to the 2579.75 overnight low, which had probed Tuesday’s low. The morning’s bias-down signal held in time to put into play an offsetting test of its 2589.25 bias-up signal. So, trending or not, the dip became required to reverse up.
And while reversing up, the attraction enabled triggering the afternoon’s 2588.25 bias-up signal. The bias environment ranged narrowly flat-to-higher, steepening its slope slightly into the 3:37 position-squaring window. That proved too much as its reaction dipped back down to test the bias environment’s 2589.00 low. It was too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, and the afternoon’s 2594.50 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.”
Wednesday’s late dip back under 2590.50 is interesting, as the close was still overlapping it. Decisively recovering it would have formed a position of strength to help absorb a reaction down Thursday. Prior probes above 2590.50 were also rejected. Since 2600.75 is likely to be tested after fulfilling the 2594.50 unfinished business, reacting back down under 2590.50 would be very bearish. Otherwise, closing any higher would next target 2617.25.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s narrowly ranging, flat-to-higher session filled the gap back up to Monday’s 16.30 close, neutralizing its attraction above, and leaving little if any reason not to resume the decline without delay.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up from Tuesday’s test of 1275.50 extended to probe last week’s 1285.00 high up to 1288.00. Closing above 1288.00 would confirm a close above 1285.00 had put into play 1301.00 and 1313.00, but 1285.00 was still being tested as support into the afternoon.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s close at 16.95 support produced a gap up Wednesday that extended to test last week’s 17.25 high. Closing any higher and above 17.30 to confirm could leave behind a wide trading range. But the afternoon reacted back down from testing prior highs. Closing under 16.95 — if not just testing or attacking it — would target 16.70 and 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s flat-to-lower ranging at 154-10 still had room down to 153-20 before suggesting the rally is ending — although it is suspicious for not yet becoming aggressive, only relentless.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A very volatile session started weaker and blipped-down only slightly further on Wednesday morning’s EIA report. Its recovery soon surged to fresh highs attacking 58.00, but only momentarily before retracing to within a dime of the morning’s low. Firming into the afternoon was essentially unchanged on the day, and still having room down to 55.35 before signaling the trend reversing down.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not already gapping down under 3.09 Wednesday all but confirmed the bearish setup wouldn’t trigger. In fact, the session extended to recovery highs, attacking 3.20.
Mid-day Update… Trending attempt #2.
Bias-up triggered.
This morning’s gap down extended lower only to attack yesterday’s lows, let alone the overnight lows. But the morning remained within yesterday afternoon’s range, 
until the bias environment began lapsing.
And it has been straight up since then.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2582.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2589.25 bias-up signal. Its attraction finally created a break above yesterday afternoon’s highs. Which led to a test of this afternoon’s 2588.25 bias-up signal. It triggered, putting into play its 2594.50 bias-up target.
There’s no fresh high since before 1:20, and price has been fluctuating around 2590.50. So, upside momentum may take another pause like this morning’s bullish setup. There’s room down to 2586.00 before reversing the trend down. But resuming the rally could probe fresh highs up to 2600.75.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is the week’s busiest, but its still devoid of any reports that are reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s 30-year auction does tend to inhibit volatility before its usual sigh of relief when results are in.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET