members-only
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2559.25 | 2558.50 |
| …would target | 2565.50 | 2563.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2553.25 | 2551.50 |
| …would target | 2547.75 | 2546.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was Monday inhibited by post-close earnings due from NFLX? If so, then it saved the session from trending down. The morning’s failed probe of fresh highs up to 2557.75 had repeated the range’s pattern of collapsing within minutes of an otherwise enthusiastic start. Two more upside attractions had been neutralized. That range had been been flat-to-higher, still probing fresh highs but not closing above relevant resistance.
Also missing from the ranging is a close under a relevant support. The noon hour’s fresh low at 2550.75 held above Friday’s low. And the afternoon recovered gradually into the 2555.50 cash session close. Closing AT Friday’s high once again doesn’t give the rally any new traction. But it can extend so long as relevant support holds.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap down to 1.1820 all but confirms that Friday’s picot reversal-like pattern has overwhelmed the corrective rally whose next higher objective is otherwise 1.1970.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday didn’t reject Friday morning’s surge through 1296.50. But gapping up didn’t extend higher, and instead dipped back down to Friday morning’s high. But there’s still room down to 1296.50 before reversing momentum down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday to test 17.59 was retraced back down to Friday’s 17.37 high. Closing under 17.30 would reverse the trend back down at least for a correction down to 17.00.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Monday held the 153-14 level whose recovery Friday all but confirms the bottom has fully formed and already reversed the trend up.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Monday to test 52.35 was reversed through the morning for a shallow pullback. The 3-week old 52.65 gap up above all prior highs still require a retest, which is likely on this leg.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Essentially meeting both corrective bounce targets at 3.00 and 3.04 last week, Sunday night’s slide greeted Monday’s open back at 2.92. This puts into play a retest of 2.89, for which there’s no bullish reason to retest — only to break lower targeting 2.84.
Mid-day Update… A topping a tempt.
Still lacking a break under a prior low.
This morning’s reaction down from 2557.75 to 2552.00 and bounced to 2554.75. That resolved down into the noon hour’s 2550.75 low. Then bounced again. The last downleg was retraced by 61.8%, and then more so up to 2554.50, natural resistance which is still being tested. Meanwhile, the sell signal’s bounce limit was just violated.
The delay in reversing into negative territory doesn’t have any bearing on whether that remains possible. It does. Sellers aren’t marginalized, but neither are buyers. Without breaking a relevant low, the rally remains intact as ever.
Back above 2555.25 would now suffice to suggest that buyers are retaking control. Back under 2551.50 would resume the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ calendar is relatively busy, but lacks any high-profile item, let alone anything with a track record for influencing price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable impact by a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET