members-only
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Two days of testing natural resistance at the 1.1300 61.8% gap-fill have resolved up to test 1.1340. Back under 1.1295 would still trigger the retest of the 1.1195 gap fill at the low.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s was Gold’s day to outperform, up sharply pre-open to fresh recovery highs that were maintained through the day. The rally leg seems entrenched, albeit not necessarily enough to yet allow a corrective day before extending higher.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged entirely in positive territory but was retrained by Tuesday’s highs. A higher close Thursday is needed to confirm that Wednesday’s pattern was not bearish “ineffectual optimism.”
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday spent the session hovering narrowly at the 146-00 pullback limit to keep alive upside momentum, while requiring the rally to resume without delay to avoid a much deeper retracement.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing Tuesday’s highs early Wednesday, the morning’s EIA report was being greeted from a position of strength. Its reaction probed higher for the first qualified close above the 57.00 buy signal.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of sitting at the 2.76 sleeper low had held, and finally began recovering Wednesday. But not enough to reverse momentum up above 2.84, so Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… And a reminder.
REMINDER: Join us in the chaRTroom after today’s close at 4:30 ET for a special introductory overview of the If Then method. It’s onboarding for newer subscribers, a refresher for seasoned subscribers, and a good opportunity to focus on strategy and tactics as market volatility begins heating up again…
This morning’s 2811.25 bias-up target was barely exceeded at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. But it didn’t hesitate proving itself out, extending to fresh highs before 10:30. Then through the 2818.00 renewed bias-up target. And higher.
The bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 near 2824.00.
Reacting down to 2817.50 during the noon hour has recovered to test the afternoon’s 2723.00 bias-up signal. It wasn’t exceeded, triggering late no-bias. Which doesn’t prevent probing higher anyway, but probing higher anyway would likely reverse back down sharply.
Back under 2819.50 at any time would already signal momentum reversing down. Nothing requires retracing all of today’s rally, but its possibility is among the afternoon’s templates.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 14, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s pre-open Claims is high-profile, but has no recent track record for influencing price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction should be duplicated by the post-open Home Sales.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2818.00 | 2823.00 |
| …would target | 2824.00 | 2829.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2811.00 | 2815.75 |
| …would target | 2803.75 | 2808.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Targets are also resistance.
Recovery extends to quickly fulfill upside.
Last night’s dip had recovered from its attack on 2788.00 up to yesterday’s last relative high above 2800.00. 
This, alone, was more than enough to suggest potential up to 2811.25-2812.00 would be met. Greeting the open at 2807.50 only made that likelier.
But nothing would make extending any higher any likelier. Nothing, except for extending higher relentlessly. Which the open did not do.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility eked higher, but each leg overlapped the opening print. Finally breaking higher surged until fulfilling 2811.25-2812.00. Not for long enough to be considered relentless, but the bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal.
Breaking higher has attacked 2815.00, short so far of the 2818.00 renewed bias-up target. RSIs are diverging negatively, and the 2813.00 pullback limit is being violated. Back under 2811.00 would start to signal momentum already reversing down.