members-only
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2502.00 | 2499.50 |
| …would target | 2506.50 | 2504.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2492.50 | 2490.00 |
| …would target | 2486.50 | 2484.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s pre-open breakout originated too late to be credible for extending higher intraday. But it did hold up high enough and for long enough to trigger the 2498.00 bias-up signal.
Also too late was the bias-up signal’s rejection. Crossing back under 2498.00 a couple of minutes after 10:30 was a couple of minutes too late to invalidate what had been signaled cleanly at 10:15.
Tuesday morning’s 2503.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” It can be fulfilled simultaneously with the offsetting test of Monday morning’s 2503.00 bias-up signal that was also left outstanding.
That’s two consecutive morning bias signals that were derailed. Patterns often come in threes, so we’ll be extra vigilant to this setup Wednesday. We’ll also see whether Tuesday’s late probe under 2495.50 cleaned out selling pressure, or attracted more.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Mid-day Update… Still treading.
Morning break retraced, but not rejected.
Triggering this morning’s 2498.00 bias-up signal didn’t extend above the 2499.00-2501.00 post-open range. 
More so, it was reversed into a slide instead of rallying.
Similar to yesterday, the bias signal held until several minutes after its break would have invalidated the bias-up. Also similar to yesterday — which was a no-bias environment — the late break didn’t prevent sliding sharply.
A minimum objective at 2495.50 was tested on the way to 2492.50 support. The bias environment began lapsing with a 5-point bounce into the noon hour. Similar to yesterday, “unfinished business above” is left outstanding at 2503.50 (similar to yesterday).
Now this afternoon’s 2498.25 bias-up signal is being tested, in a no-bias environment. The attractions above could help to break through. Meanwhile, 2498.25 should define the range’s upper-end, and back under 2495.50 would trigger another slide.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open Durable Goods is both high-profile and reliably influential to prices. Any noticeable reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by the post-open report. The morning’s Fed speaker isn’t likely to influence price action, but the afternoon’s Fed speaker usually does.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
9:15 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2501.00 | 2498.25 |
| …would target | 2507.00 | 2503.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2494.75 | 2491.25 |
| …would target | 2488.50 | 2485.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.